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We are dealing with the biggest epidemic in world history. Without urgent action there certainly is a real risk of a m

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We are dealing with the biggest epidemic in world history. Without urgent action there certainly is a real risk of a m

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    2. "We are dealing with the biggest epidemic in world history. "Without urgent action there certainly is a real risk of a major wipe-out of indigenous communities, if not total extinction, within this century.

    3. The Growing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in the Developing World

    4. Global Burden of Disease 2000*, by group Group I: Communicable, infectious, maternal and perinatal Group II: Noncommunicable, chronic Group III: Injuries and Violence

    7. NCDs are the leading causes of disability*

    8. NCDs cause a significant burden of disease*

    9. Disease burden, by region

    10. Demographic and Epidemiologic Transitions Demographic transition- coined in 1945 to describe changes in birth and death rates which accompanied modernization (social and economic development) Epidemiologic transition- came into use in 1970s to describe the change in disease patterns and drop in under 5 mortality which led to the demographic transition

    11. The classic description of the epidemiologic transition 1) the age of famine and pestilence 2) the age of receding epidemics 3) the age of degenerative and human-made diseases

    12. Demographic & Epidemiologic Transitions The process of the demographic may be much more variable then previously thought (Coale & Watkins, 1986) There are no development thresholds There is no fixed sequence of events There is no fixed interval between events In many cases, there is now a double burden of non-communicable and communicable diseases

    13. Burden of Risk Factors Less well studied than burden of disease Comparative Risk Assessment project

    14. Health Inequalities Among the poorest people, NCDs are still uncommon On the other hand, in higher-income countries, major RFs (tobacco, etoh, poor diet, and inactivity) are directly correlated with poverty. Relationships are complex and variable: India: rates of HTN, DM, CVD increase with income tobacco use, in contrast, is highest among the poorest Jamaica: obesity is highest among the wealthiest and poorest

    15. Risk factors accumulate with time

    16. Anticipating the growing burden of NCDs

    17. Projected Disease Burden

    19. What do you think?

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