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Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK. Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea. Contents. 1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions. 1. Recent Climate Features.

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Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

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  1. Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea

  2. Contents 1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

  3. 1. Recent Climate Features

  4. Variation of Temperature in Summer(JJA)

  5. Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)

  6. The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA) • Mean temperature21.7℃(+0.4℃) • Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃) • Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃) • Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃) • Precipitation 757.6㎜(136％) • Western part 754~1081㎜(129~185％) • Eastern part 365~951㎜(71~185％) • Northern Inlandregion 447~925㎜(97~202％)

  7. The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF) • Mean temperature-8.1℃(-2.3℃) • Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃) • Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃) • Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃) • Precipitation 55.3㎜(+13.1㎜) • Dec. 22.5㎜(+6.7㎜) • Jan. 12.9㎜(+0.3㎜) • Feb. 19.9㎜(+6.2㎜)

  8. 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction

  9. Tropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013 Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S) Recent ENSO Condition -0.6℃ Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013 Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area

  10. ENSO Prediction of CMFC Pacific SSTAprediction by analogue method for summer(JJA) (1977, 1994) 6-month prediction of Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods Niño 3.4 index: near or above normal But significance : relatively low

  11. 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

  12. Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0 ∘ Meridional circulation : strengthened in middle latitude of East Asia ∘ Okhotsk high : stronger ∘ West Pacific Subtropical High : weaker than normal Interpreting the model ∘ Temperature: near normal ∘ Precipitation: below or near normal JJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly

  13. Physical and Statistical Prediction 500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation Temperature: near Normal Precipitation: below or near normal Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011

  14. Monsoon Activity normal Nearor above normal T : near normal R : below normal Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index for Summer

  15. Summary 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK • Temperature : Near normal • Precipitation : Below or near normal • Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appeared • 2. Monsoon activity: Near normal • 3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normal

  16. Thank you !

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