Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems
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Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems Joel Vargas, Jobs for the Future. American Diploma Project: State Leadership Team Meeting September 10, 2009. The Education Pipeline is Broken.

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Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems

Joel Vargas, Jobs for the Future

American Diploma Project:

State Leadership Team Meeting September 10, 2009


The Education Pipeline is Broken

Percentage of 8th graders by SES who attain different levels of education

Source: Analysis of NELS data by Optimal Solutions for JFF


Early Warning Systems

  • Built on studies that show we can predict over half of dropouts by 6th grade and nearly 80% by 9th grade based on a few school related factors

  • States or districts can conduct studies to determine their strongest predictors and in what grades these first become predictive

  • With support, schools use this data to flag youth when they first start to fall off-track and build an on-time, responsive culture & intervention system

  • Best systems are tiered: utilize whole school, targeted, and intensive supports. The best work transforms school culture.


Two New Pathways to Success

  • Pathway One: Starting College in High School

  • Focused on improving college success of underrepresented young people.

  • Include “Blended” (secondary-post-secondary) schools and dual enrollment models

  • Combine college preparatory academic program with college course-taking

  • Blended schools (ECHS) offer compressed time to earn two years of college credits while in high school

  • Pathway Two: Back on Track

  • Range of models tailored to needs of different groupings of off-track youth

  • Dual focus on strong college/career ready academic core and strong academic advising and social supports

  • Supports offered through community partnership model  

  • Designed to enable credit recovery and acceleration for off-track and out-of-school youth


Early Warning Systems:

What is a State to Do?

  • Conduct data study to surface key indicators and disseminate findings

  • Create tools to help districts/schools use data for purposes of building early warning systems

  • Set up and oversee data reporting and tracking systems

  • Collect information on and determine highest impact interventions and disseminate best practices


Early Warning Systems:

What is a State to Do?

Louisiana

  • Implemented DEWS in 46 districts (over half of total districts)

  • Manage data and technical issues of system at state level

  • Partnered with state university researchers to analyze historical data for predictive factors

  • Provide grants for pilot phase

  • Require districts to develop 9th grade intervention systems

Total # of Referrals

Age of Student

List of students within a school

Intervention Codes

Intervention Status

Total Enrollment Days

Total Days Absence


Models, Options, Pathways: What is a State to Do?

  • Analysis which points to the need for types of models based on key characteristics of segments of the off-track population.

  • Assess the extent to which existing models in the state can address those needs and identify need for additional options.

  • Examine & Change Policies: Alternative Education, Dropout Policies, Dual Enrollment Policies, Innovation Policies.

  • Specify role for creation of new models in tandem with turnaround strategies for existing schools.

  • Identify start-up resources and support for the capacity for new school development.


North Carolina

Early College High Schools

North Carolina

  • Created Innovative Education Initiatives Act

  • Dual Enrollment Policies: Enablers and Barriers

  • Waiver Process

  • 82 Innovative High Schools

  • 69 Learn & Earn Early College Schools

  • New Schools Project provides support and coherence


Impact: Early Warning Systems


Impact: Models, Options, Pathways

82 Innovative Schools, 17,000 Students, 541 Dropouts


Impact: Early Promise of Early College Schools


Impact: NY Transfer Schools

Transfer schools are designed to effectively recoup the youngest, lowest-credited segment of the OA-UC population.*

Comparative Student Performance:High School History Prior to Transfer School vs. After Enrolling at Transfer School

* - Historically, these are students who are 16-17 years old and who have earned fewer than 11 credits.


Sources

Abbeville High School Data from Pinkus, Lyndsay (2008): Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System. Alliance for Excellent Education.

Kelvyn Park High School Data from Gewertz, Catherine (2009): 9th Grade, By the Numbers. Education Week, Published Online March 10, 2009.

Merrick, Patricia (2009): LA Dept. of Education Powerpoint Presentation given at College- and Career-Ready Policy Institute Leadership Meeting, Scottsdale, AZ. March 26, 2009.

New York City Data from Lynch, JoEllen (2008): Recuperative Programs and Accountability in New York City. Powerpoint presentation for Jobs for the Future, April 17, 2008.

North Carolina Data from New Schools Project (2009): News about High School Innovation. Innovator online newsletter, February 6, 2009.


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