Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems
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Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems Joel Vargas, Jobs for the Future. American Diploma Project: State Leadership Team Meeting September 10, 2009. The Education Pipeline is Broken.

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Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning Systems

Joel Vargas, Jobs for the Future

American Diploma Project:

State Leadership Team Meeting September 10, 2009


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

The Education Pipeline is Broken

Percentage of 8th graders by SES who attain different levels of education

Source: Analysis of NELS data by Optimal Solutions for JFF


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Early Warning Systems

  • Built on studies that show we can predict over half of dropouts by 6th grade and nearly 80% by 9th grade based on a few school related factors

  • States or districts can conduct studies to determine their strongest predictors and in what grades these first become predictive

  • With support, schools use this data to flag youth when they first start to fall off-track and build an on-time, responsive culture & intervention system

  • Best systems are tiered: utilize whole school, targeted, and intensive supports. The best work transforms school culture.


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Two New Pathways to Success

  • Pathway One: Starting College in High School

  • Focused on improving college success of underrepresented young people.

  • Include “Blended” (secondary-post-secondary) schools and dual enrollment models

  • Combine college preparatory academic program with college course-taking

  • Blended schools (ECHS) offer compressed time to earn two years of college credits while in high school

  • Pathway Two: Back on Track

  • Range of models tailored to needs of different groupings of off-track youth

  • Dual focus on strong college/career ready academic core and strong academic advising and social supports

  • Supports offered through community partnership model  

  • Designed to enable credit recovery and acceleration for off-track and out-of-school youth


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Early Warning Systems:

What is a State to Do?

  • Conduct data study to surface key indicators and disseminate findings

  • Create tools to help districts/schools use data for purposes of building early warning systems

  • Set up and oversee data reporting and tracking systems

  • Collect information on and determine highest impact interventions and disseminate best practices


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Early Warning Systems:

What is a State to Do?

Louisiana

  • Implemented DEWS in 46 districts (over half of total districts)

  • Manage data and technical issues of system at state level

  • Partnered with state university researchers to analyze historical data for predictive factors

  • Provide grants for pilot phase

  • Require districts to develop 9th grade intervention systems

Total # of Referrals

Age of Student

List of students within a school

Intervention Codes

Intervention Status

Total Enrollment Days

Total Days Absence


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Models, Options, Pathways: What is a State to Do?

  • Analysis which points to the need for types of models based on key characteristics of segments of the off-track population.

  • Assess the extent to which existing models in the state can address those needs and identify need for additional options.

  • Examine & Change Policies: Alternative Education, Dropout Policies, Dual Enrollment Policies, Innovation Policies.

  • Specify role for creation of new models in tandem with turnaround strategies for existing schools.

  • Identify start-up resources and support for the capacity for new school development.


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

North Carolina

Early College High Schools

North Carolina

  • Created Innovative Education Initiatives Act

  • Dual Enrollment Policies: Enablers and Barriers

  • Waiver Process

  • 82 Innovative High Schools

  • 69 Learn & Earn Early College Schools

  • New Schools Project provides support and coherence


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Impact: Early Warning Systems


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Impact: Models, Options, Pathways

82 Innovative Schools, 17,000 Students, 541 Dropouts


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Impact: Early Promise of Early College Schools


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Impact: NY Transfer Schools

Transfer schools are designed to effectively recoup the youngest, lowest-credited segment of the OA-UC population.*

Comparative Student Performance:High School History Prior to Transfer School vs. After Enrolling at Transfer School

* - Historically, these are students who are 16-17 years old and who have earned fewer than 11 credits.


Keeping students on track creating statewide pathways models and early warning systems

Sources

Abbeville High School Data from Pinkus, Lyndsay (2008): Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System. Alliance for Excellent Education.

Kelvyn Park High School Data from Gewertz, Catherine (2009): 9th Grade, By the Numbers. Education Week, Published Online March 10, 2009.

Merrick, Patricia (2009): LA Dept. of Education Powerpoint Presentation given at College- and Career-Ready Policy Institute Leadership Meeting, Scottsdale, AZ. March 26, 2009.

New York City Data from Lynch, JoEllen (2008): Recuperative Programs and Accountability in New York City. Powerpoint presentation for Jobs for the Future, April 17, 2008.

North Carolina Data from New Schools Project (2009): News about High School Innovation. Innovator online newsletter, February 6, 2009.


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