UN ECE Seminar on New Frontiers for Statistical Data Collection 31 Oct – 2 Nov 2012 Beyond 2011

1. UN ECE Seminar on New Frontiers for Statistical Data Collection 31 Oct – 2 Nov 2012Beyond 2011 The future of population statistics Andy Teague, Office for National Statistics, UK

2. Beyond 2011 (England & Wales) • Context - why change? • Statistical options – what are the alternatives? • Timescale • Risks & Issues – what could go wrong?

3. The Beyond 2011 Programme Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society • Evolving user requirements • New opportunities – data sharing • Traditional census – costly and • infrequent

4. Programme Purpose • Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future • Provide a recommendation in 2014 • - underpinned by full cost-benefit analysis • - & high level design for implementation • (subject to agreement) Implement the recommendation

5. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Traditional Census (long form to everyone) • Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Census options • Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) • Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) • Aggregate analysis Administrative data options • (Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes • 100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’ Survey option(s) • Address register + Survey

6. Beyond 2011 – statistical options FRAME SOURCES DATA OUTPUTS ESTIMATION All National to Small Area Population Data Address Admin Source CENSUS Register Population estimates Admin Source Admin Source Adjusting for missing data and error ?? Coverage Assessment Quality measurement Population distribution provides weighting for attributes incl. under & over-coverage - by survey and admin data? Comm Source increasing later? Household structure etc Commercial sources? Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Surveys to fill gaps Socio demographic Attribute Data Household Attribute estimates Socio demographic Survey(s) Communal Longitudinal data Establishments Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys Interactional Analysis E.g. TTWA

7. Key data sources • National Health Service Patient Register • Tax and benefit ‘master index’ • Electoral register (> 17 yrs) • School Census (5-16 yrs) • Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students) • Birth and Death registrations • Commercial data?

8. Major statistical challenges • No population register • Data quality • Incomplete • Out of date • Duplicates / erroneous entries • Little reliable population attribute data in administrative data sources • Coverage survey required • Attribute survey required

9. Beyond 2011 - Timeline - the key decision CENSUS SOLUTION 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 detailed develop test rehearse run outputs design 2011 2012 2013 2014 research / definition initiation BEYOND 2011 ‘Phase 1’ population population detailed procure / develop / characteristics estimates design develop test outputs 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION 2014 Recommendation & decision point

10. Beyond 2011 - Timeline (non census solution) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 population population detailed procure / develop / research / definition initiation characteristics estimates design develop test outputs coverage surveys continuous assessment testing attribute surveys info from existing surveys – e.g. labour force survey, integrated household survey etc linkage increasing linkage over time modelling increasing modelling over time address register required on an ongoing basis – ideally the National Address Gazetteer – subject to confirmation of quality public sector & commercial ? admin sources developing over time supplemented by new targeted surveys as required test

11. Beyond 2011 - and into the future 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 regular production of population and attribute estimates ongoing methodology refinement address register required on an ongoing basis and be added & develop over time administrative sources will change and disappear continuous coveragesurvey need for attributesurveys declines over time ? existing surveys increasing linkage over time increasing modelling over time

12. 2013 2021 2031 accuracy of population estimates accuracy of characteristics estimates range of topics small area detail multivariate small area detail Improving quality & quantity experimental statistics develop to become national statistics

13. Census Alternativemethod Benefit 2011 2021 2031 2041 Statistical benefit profile loss loss gain gain

14. Census Cost ???Alternative method 2011 2021 2031 2041 Cost profile (real terms)

15. Evaluation criteria • Costs • Quality / benefits – user consultation • Accuracy • Frequency • Geographic detail • Legislative requirements • Risk • Public acceptability/burden – public consultation

16. Key risks of non census alternatives • Public opinion • Public acceptability research, open consultation & transparency of approach • Technical challenge – cutting edge & a big change • Building high quality team, talking to experts and strong external assurance • Changes in administrative datasets • Building resilient solutions – but may need legislation • Ensuring decision making – getting political buy-in • This is a big decision – needs real commitment • Devolved issues / harmonisation of UK outputs • Establishment of UK Beyond 2011 Committee + NS / RGs agreement

17. beyond2011@ons.gov.uk