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2002 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Surety Reserving. Mike Rozema, ACAS, MAAA KPMG LLP. Overview. Reserving Considerations One Loss Reserve Estimation Approach Premium Deficiency Reserves Considerations Use of Bond Default Rates to estimate future losses. Reserve Estimate Approach.

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Presentation Transcript
overview
Overview
  • Reserving Considerations
  • One Loss Reserve Estimation Approach
  • Premium Deficiency Reserves
    • Considerations
    • Use of Bond Default Rates to estimate future losses
reserve estimate approach
Reserve Estimate Approach
  • Gather data
  • Understand large claim potential
  • Assign probabilities and scenarios to claims with high bond limits
  • Estimate gross reserves for all other losses
  • Estimate ceded reserves
  • Simulation
step 1 gather data
Step 1 – Gather Data
  • Bond limits profile
  • Large claim information
  • Type of business mix
  • Reinsurance program
step 2 understand the potentially large claims
Step 2 - Understand the potentially large claims
  • Review all open claims with significant exposure
    • One principal, many bonds
    • Review claims files
    • Read the contracts
    • Do not ignore losses with low case reserves
step 3 assign probabilities and scenarios to potentially large losses
Step 3 - Assign probabilities and scenarios to potentially large losses
  • Interview Claims Personnel
    • What would you settle these claims for?
    • What is our maximum exposure?
    • What is the claims handling strategy?
    • What is the subrogation potential?
    • What is the expected payment pattern?
  • Low, Medium, High, and Other Scenarios
    • Assign Probabilities and Severities
step 4 estimate reserves for all other losses
Step 4 – Estimate reserves for all other losses
  • Use traditional actuarial techniques
    • Development methods
    • Bornhuetter-Ferguson
    • Frequency/Severity
  • Development patterns affected by bond type
    • Expense
    • Subrogation
    • Statute (Workers Comp Self-insured Bonds)
actuarial sop no 36
Actuarial SOP No. 36
  • Explanatory paragraph required when actuary believes that there are risks and uncertainties that could result in material adverse deviation.
    • Identify the amount judged to be material
    • Describe the major factors and particular conditions underlying the risks and uncertainties
  • Expected value estimate is better than the median or mode when expected value estimates can be significantly greater than other measures.
step 5 reinsurance
Step 5 – Reinsurance
  • Surety Treaty Provisions
    • Surety reinsurance is unique, usually separate from other lines of business
  • Facultative Reinsurance
  • Estimate ceded losses for each large loss and for all other claims for each scenario.
step 6 simulation
Step 6 – Simulation
  • Simulate Gross Losses
    • Use Large Loss Scenario Probabilities
    • Use triangle techniques to estimate aggregate reserve distribution for all other claims
    • Consider correlation between large loss scenarios and other reserves
  • Estimated Ceded Losses for each Simulation Result
simulation results
Simulation Results
  • Net and Gross Aggregate Loss Distributions are helpful
    • Range of reasonable estimates
    • Identifying and quantifying risk of material adverse deviation
    • Effectively communicating risk to management
    • Quantifying reasonable risk loads by bond type
premium deficiency reserves
Premium Deficiency Reserves
  • SSAP No. 53 – Property Casualty Contracts - Premiums
    • When anticipated losses, loss adjustment expenses, commissions, and other acquisition costs exceed the recorded UPR, a premium deficiency reserve is required.
    • Insurance policies shall be grouped in a manner consistent with how policies are marketed, serviced, and measured.
premium deficiency reserves14
Premium Deficiency Reserves
  • Considerations
    • Surety is generally marketed on its own and therefore should be segmented for PDR estimate
    • Non-cancelable contracts
    • Multiple year contracts – understand how premium is earned
    • Restrictive reinsurance market
    • Regulatory constraints to premium increases
    • Recession increases frequency
premium deficiency reserves loss and alae estimates
Premium Deficiency Reserves – Loss and ALAE estimates
  • Group principals homogeneously
    • Bond Type (e.g. Commercial, Contract)
    • Bond Limit
    • Financial Strength
  • Use rating agency corporate bond default rates to estimate claim frequency
  • Use historical data to estimate claim severity as a percentage of bond limit
summary
Summary
  • Understand Bond Mix, Limits Profile and Reinsurance Provisions
  • Large Exposures need detailed analysis
  • Scenario/simulation approach is useful
  • Market/economic conditions may result in premium deficiencies
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