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Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena

Crisis and recovery in Europe. Labour market impact on men and women. Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena Alina Verashchagina, Sapienza University of Rome. Athens, 1 st December 2011. Familiar concepts in need of updating.

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Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena

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  1. Crisis and recovery in Europe. Labour market impact on men and women Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena Alina Verashchagina, Sapienza University of Rome Athens, 1st December 2011

  2. Familiar concepts in need of updating • Added and Discouraged workers • Buffers and Substitutes • Segregation and Segmentation

  3. Past findings • Early post-war recessions in Europe and the USA: • women’s employment did not (consistently) move pro-cyclically, mainly due to the protective role of segregation (Rubery 1988). • Early 1980s and late 1990s crisis in Latin America: • female participation moved counter-cyclically as the added worker effect prevailed over discouragement effects among middle to high income households, less so among poorer families (Sabarwal et al. 2010).

  4. Levelling downward of gender employment gaps. Protection from segregation Male employment dropped earlier in the recession and faster. It is also picking up faster where recovery is on sight, but lost ground has not been fully regained yet. The gender gap in the employment rates has gone down by 2.5 percentage points from (pre-recession) peak level (-1.6% in FTE gap). Female unemployment was stickier.The gender unemployment gap was practically cancelled in the depth of the recession but re-surfaced at 0.1 percentage points in 2011Q2. Segregation has protected female employment.The differences in peak-to-trough employment losses between men and women correlate positively with the level of sectoral segregation across countries, the correlation with occupational segregation being also significant but slightly lower.

  5. Downturn in employment:rates for men, peak levels and trough values Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  6. Downturn in employment:rates for women, peak levels and trough values Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  7. Employment losses should be measured against potential rather than actual employment levels. Losses for men nearly 3 times as high with peak-to-trough measure, nearly twice as high with deviation from trend measure. Choice of measure matters EmploymentRates Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  8. Weakness in strength: levelling downward of the gender pay gap National evidence from 9 countries BE, DK, EE, FI, HR, LT,NO, SK, and CY - The gender wage gap declined in the majority of countries during the first year of the recession. - Trend factors had some role in this decline. But in the assessment of the national experts the recession may have accelerated the decline. - Factors driving the GPG decline: non wage components of the pay packet, segregation; role of Equal Pay Policy.

  9. Levelling downward of gender gaps: the importance of changing income roles Discouraged workers were and remain more frequent among women, but the rise following the recession was more or less proportionately distributed between the sexes. The gender gap decreased slightly. Unlike men, women increased labour market participation.At the trough point male inactivity was 0.9 percentage points higher than at the peak quarter while female inactivity was 0.1 points lower. Dual breadwinners households are the vast majority but lost ground in favour of female breadwinners households (from 73.7% to 70%: 2007-8). Women’s income role clearly in transition from that of secondary (but in no way marginal) workers and that of primary or co-primary earners. This crisis has emphasized the ‘insurance’ role of women’s earnings.

  10. Discouraged workers, in % of population 15-64 Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  11. Levelling downward of gender gaps: women’s determination to stay The number of involuntary part-timers grew more for women. In 2010, involuntary part-time rose sharply for men as a way to avoid dismissals. The percentage rise in the share of involuntary part-time was in fact about two points higher for men (+5.8 against +3.8). Nevertheless, given large gender disparities in part-time working, the increase in the number of women’s part-timers was almost double that of men.

  12. The new Buffers or ‘Institutional Segmentation’: temporary employees, men and women In the downturn firms found it easier to cut employment by failing to renew temporary contracts, while in the recovery they resorted to these contracts in preference to others. As a result temporary contracts declined in the downturn in ratio to total employment but quickly increased after the trough point was reached. The ups and downs in the share of employees on temporary contracts were rather similar for men and women.

  13. Temporary employment. downturn and recovery Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  14. The new Buffers: young men and women and male migrants Most vulnerable groups of workers: young and migrants. Male migrants from outside the EU recorded the highest employment fallout (peak-to-trough % variations) while outcomes for mobile workers from within the EU appear to differ across countries. Female migrants were largely spared, especially those from within the EU. Many of them work in the care sector.

  15. Nationality profile of employment losses and gains: men EU27 EU15 DE EE ES UK Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

  16. Deterioration of working conditions (other than pay) shared by men and women, but different implications • Deteriorations of working conditions also include: delay in wage payments (BG, EE, EL, LV, LT), occupational downgrading (UK), violations of health and safety regulations (LT, SI) or of (normal) working schedules (PL) and trade union rights (TK), pressure and harassment at work (FI, FR), and downright discrimination (PT). • Evidence of curtailment of rights of pregnant women to maternity leave & benefits, and the right to resume job after maternity (EL, PT, IT and CZ). Bad news for fertility.

  17. Men are more vocal about the deterioration of working conditions: Subjective evaluation of the change in working conditions 2008-10 Note: Blue for Men, Red for Women Source: own elaboration on ESS data

  18. Where the gender gap may have increased: unpaid work Indirect evidence: Pronounced fall in expenditure for routine maintenance goods and services, care services as well as meals and drinks National evidence for IT, SI, ES, and TK: There is some evidence that the gender gap in the allocation of unpaid work may have gone up during the recession in countries where disparities in unpaid work are especially pronounced (Italy and Turkey)

  19. Beware of the recession tail: fiscal consolidation and the second dip Source: OECD 2011

  20. The most frequent measures in 19 countries: AT, BG, CZ, DE, EL, FR, FYROM, HU, IE , IS, LI, LV, NL, MT, PL, PT, RO, SE, UK On the expenditure side: Wage freezes or wage cuts in the public sector (11 countries); Staffing freezes or personnel cuts in the public sector (9 countries); Pension reforms: postponing retirement and/or bringing the age of retirement for women in line with that for men (8 countries); Cuts and restrictions in care related benefits/allowances/facilities(8 countries); Reduction of housing benefits or family benefits (6 countries); Tightening of eligibility criteria for unemployment and assistance benefits or reductions in replacement rates (5 countries); On the revenue side: Tax measures (6 countries); VAT increase (5 countries); Increase in fees for publicly subsidized services (health care fees, transport fees, others) (2 countries). Fiscal consolidation and gender equality

  21. Fiscal consolidation: women more at risk? In half of the countries that we were able to include in our evaluation exercise the consolidation provisions deemed to entail ‘risks’ of rolling back women’s integration into the labour market on an equal footing represent no less than 1% of GDP in one or more years within the announced consolidation period. Source: Karamessini (2011), Plantenga and Remery (2011), Ferreira (2011), Fagan and Norman (2011)

  22. What levelling downward of employment gaps boils down to At peak values, just before the recession begun, 10 Member States were above the 65% employment rate mark for women, but the number was down to 6 in the second quarter of 2011 as EE, LV, UK and SI slipped below the 65% mark. In the vast majority of Member States the 70% target for 2020 looks further away now than four years ago.

  23. To move forward At policy level • Review/auditing/monitoring of consolidation or recovery packages from a gender equality perspective • A ‘pink new deal’ Within civil society at large • Spread awareness of transition from ‘welfare’ to ‘bankfare’ • More literacy in financial matters for women

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