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Climate System Monitoring

Climate System Monitoring. Shotaro Tanaka Chief of climate diagnosis Climate Prediction Division of JMA. Contents. Introduction Monitoring of Tropical Conditions Features of El Nino/La Nina events Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Asian Summer Monsoon Products Climate Diagnostic Meeting

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Climate System Monitoring

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  1. Climate System Monitoring Shotaro Tanaka Chief of climate diagnosis Climate Prediction Division of JMA

  2. Contents • Introduction • Monitoring of Tropical Conditions • Features of El Nino/La Nina events • Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO) • Asian Summer Monsoon • Products • Climate Diagnostic Meeting • Future Plans

  3. 1. Introduction Purposes • To understand current condition of the climate system • To provide the climate system information • To explain unusual weather • To improve the long-range weather forecast

  4. Data Atmospheric Circulation : Objective Analysis Data produced in JMA ERA-15 for climatological normal Tropical Convection : Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from NOAA SST :Analysis Data produced in JMA Snow cover and Sea Ice : Observations with SSM/I onboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellites from NOAA

  5. Focusing Points of Monitoring and Analysis • Difference from Climatological Normal • Seasonal March • Variations (MJO, ENSO, etc.) • Influence of the Tropics to the Extratropics • Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction

  6. 2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions3-month Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in DJF Current SST (DJF 2002/2003) Normal SST (DJF)

  7. 3-month Mean SST in JJA Current SST (JJA 2003) Normal SST (JJA)

  8. 3-Month Mean SST Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003) SSTA (Dec2002-Feb2003) SSTA (Jun-Aug2003)

  9. Tropical Convective Activity OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation, W/m2) Jan. Active Convection Area Intertropical Convergence Zone Jul.

  10. Seasonal March of Tropical Convection Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Africa Southeast Asia South America

  11. 3-Month Mean OLR Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003) OLRA (Dec2002-Feb2003) OLRA (Jun-Aug2003)

  12. Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (January) Subtropical Jet H H H H H Stream Function at 200-hPa Walker Circulation L H H H H H Stream Function at 850-hPa

  13. Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (July) Tibetan High H H H H Mid-Pacific Trough Stream Function at 200-hPa Monsoon Trough Monsoon Westerlies H H L H H H Stream Function at 850-hPa

  14. Tropical Convection and Walker Circulation Walker Circulation : Vertical-Zonal Circulation along the equator From CPC/NOAA Home Page

  15. Zonal Mean Fields July 2003 January 2003

  16. SST Indices REGION D (14N-EQ,130-150E) REGION A (4N-4S,160E-150W) REGION B (4N-4S,150-90W) REGION C (EQ-10S,90-80W) Red Shading : El Nino phase Blue Shading : La Nina phase 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

  17. Southern Oscillation SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) = (SLP at Tahiti) － (SLP at Darwin) Red Shading : El Nino phase Blue Shading : La Nina phase SOI DARWIN TAHITI 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

  18. OLR Indices OLR-PH OLR-MC OLR-DL 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 OLR indices: area-averaged OLR anomaly

  19. Equatorial Zonal Wind Indices U200-IN U200-CP U850-WP U850-CP U850-EP 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

  20. 3. Features in El Nino/La Nina events 3-month Mean SST Anomaly El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998) La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999) red (blue) shading: above (below) normal SST

  21. Regression of 3-month Mean SST on NINO3 DJF JJA

  22. OLR Anomaly (in El Nino and La Nina) El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998) La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999) blue (red) shading: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity

  23. El Nino Composite Map (OLR) Dec.-Feb. Jun.-Aug. blue (red) Contour: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity

  24. El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (DJF) 200hPa 850hPa blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.

  25. El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (JJA) 200hPa 850hPa blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.

  26. El Nino/La Nina Composite of 500hPa Height TNH Pattern PNA Pattern WP Pattern El Nino (Dec.-Feb.) La Nina (Dec.-Feb.) blue (red) Contour: negative(positive) anomaly

  27. 4. Mudden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) MJO: intraseasonal oscillation propagating eastward along the equator with 30-60 days period Time flow Active Convection propagating eastward Westerly Burst Africa Indonesia South America

  28. Monitoring of MJO blue shading: divergence Time-Longitude Section of 5-day mean 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly (5S-5N) （from Mar. to Aug. 2002）

  29. Northward Propagation of Active Convection Active Phase of MJO Time-Latitude Section of 5-day mean OLR averaged in 65-85E （from Apr. to Sep.2002）

  30. 5. Asian Summer Monsoon • Onset : mid-May over Indochina Peninsula • Withdrawal : mid-October • Tibetan High at upper level (easterly wind) • Thermal Low pressure at lower level (westerly wind) Subtropical High L Somali Jet Active Convection Sea level Pressure, 850hPa wind, and OLR（Jul.2003）

  31. Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (1) (Convective Activity and Lower Level Circulation)

  32. Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (2) (Convective Activity and Higher Level Circulation)

  33. Summer (JJA) Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 3-month Mean 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 3-month Mean Temperature Anomaly (Normalized) Category 3-month Precipitation Ratio Category

  34. Monthly Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 Summer L L H Jun. L L H H Jul. H H H L Aug. 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 200-hPa Stream Function and OLR

  35. Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI) SAMOI(A) : Activity W+E SAMOI(N) : Northward Shift N－S SAMOI(W) : Westward Shift W－E Time Series of SAMOI averaged in summer (Jun.-Aug.) (1979-2003) 1983 2000 1982 1984 1985 1997 1998 1999

  36. SAMOI-A and Summer (JJA) Mean Temperature in Japan Time Series of Summer(JJA) Averaged SAMOI-A(Pink Line) and The Temperature in Northern Japan (Blue Line) Correlation Coefficient : +0.78 ( in 1979-2003) Significantly Positive Correlation between SAMOI-A and the Temperature in Northern, Eastern and Western Japan

  37. Products • Online (through TCC web site): • Monthly Report on Climate System (MRCS), • Asian monsoon monitoring, • stratospheric circulation monitoring, • statistics research. • Offline: • MRCS, • Annual Report on Climate System (as CD-ROM), • MRCS / Separated Volumes,

  38. Menu of Climate System Monitoring on the TCC Web Site

  39. 7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting • Held around 10th every month • Attendance : forecasters, senior science officers, etc. • To brief and discuss current conditions of climate system • To share the consensus of the current conditions

  40. 8. Future Plans • To improve long-range forecast • To employ new diagnostic tools • To examine the climate system further • To improve and increase the products on the web site

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