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国际油轮船东协会简介 Single Hull Tanker Phase Out and its implications on Ship Conversion and Recycling in the Region PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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国际油轮船东协会简介 Single Hull Tanker Phase Out and its implications on Ship Conversion and Recycling in the Region. Ship Care 2007 23-24 January 2007, Swissotel Beijing, China Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia Pacific [email protected]

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国际油轮船东协会简介 Single Hull Tanker Phase Out and its implications on Ship Conversion and Recycling in the Region

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Single hull tanker phase out and its implications on ship conversion and recycling in the region l.jpg

国际油轮船东协会简介Single Hull Tanker Phase Out and its implications on Ship Conversion and Recycling in the Region

Ship Care 2007

23-24 January 2007, Swissotel Beijing, China

Tim Wilkins

Regional Manager Asia Pacific

[email protected]


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Introduction

  • Trade Association for tanker owners

  • 260 members, 40 countries, 2500 tankers,

  • 300 Associate Members

  • INTERTANKO office 25 persons

  • Representation – IMO, Brussels Washington

  • Information advisory service

  • Meeting place

  • Oslo – London - Washington - Singapore

  • Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of:

  • Zero fatalities

  • Zero pollution

  • Zero detentions

  • 领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提高,以努力实现以下目标:

  • 零死亡事故

  • 零海洋污染

  • 零港口国控制滞留率


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Introduction

  • Effect of Single Hull phase out on tanker conversion

  • Effect of Single Hull phase out on ship recycling

  • Phase Out Regulation - Stable

  • Tanker Market - Dynamic


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Tanker Market

  • 2006 was a profitable year for tanker owners, certainly better than expected

  • With the exception of 2002, it has also been a good decade

    • Prestige – Two tier market / Maritime Safety Package

    • Venezuela strike – US oil from further a field

    • Bosporus Problems – Congestion / Night transits

    • Hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico – Oil Production Facility and Refinery closures

    • Nigeria and Iraq – Hostilities forcing market disturbance

    • Prudhoe Bay - Partial closure of North America’s largest oil field


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Tanker Market

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Tanker Market

Assumed 4.5% increase in demand

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Single hull phase out

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Single hull phase out

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Conversion trends

Converting Single to Double Hull

Inserting an inner side and an inner bottom is the most common solution.

Source: DNV


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Conversion trends

Single Hull to Double Hull conversion looking more inviting:

Conversion of single hull tankers to double hull is normally not regarded as a major conversion. The flag state is consulted from project to project.

Date of construction will not be changed after conversion

After conversion to double hull the phase out date of the vessel will no longer be relevant

Estimated cost for a VLCC conversion: USD26.6 to 31.6mill.

Costs based on;

Scope of work

Shipbuilding pricing statistics

Location of potential yards

Expected yard stay during conversion period

Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling


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Conversion trends

Single Hull tankers converted to FPSOs and FSUs

Product Tankers converted to Chemical Tanker Type II or III:

MARPOL Annex II changes: all chemical products (in particular veg. oils) to be carried on chemical tankers

Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

- 2010 and 2015 key phase out dates in terms of recycling

- Potential smoothing of phase out curve


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

  • - 2010 and 2015 key phase out dates in terms of recycling

  • Potential smoothing of phase out curve:

    • Smaller tankers continue to trade: Coastal trades Nigeria, China, Indonesia and Mexico

    • Larger tankers trading to 25 years: LOOP lightering, Japan, Singapore, Middle East.

    • Conversion options taken


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

Source: INTERTANKO


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Effects on Recycling

  • 1. Regulatory and Political Push

  • 2007EC Strategy

  • Industry Interim Strategy: IMO Guidelines

  • 2009Adoption of IMO Ship Recycling Convention

  • 2012Entry into Force on IMO Convention (optimistic projection, 2+1 yrs)

  • 2. Market Force Pull

  • Fragmentation in yard capability (Basel standards, environmental and safety management systems implemented)

  • Choice of yard dictated by tanker owner – responsible recycling options


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Single hull Tanker Phase out:Effects on Conversion and Recycling

Concluding Remarks

  • Phase out regime will effect recycling and conversion trends

  • Tanker market fluctuations are and will continue to have major impact

    • Tankers trading as long as possible due to strong tanker market – decreased recycling and increased conversion

  • Inter-relation between market, conversion and recycling demonstrated

    • Trend not limited to larger VLCCs but also smaller tankers – phase out regulation not the only regulation to consider (MARPOL Annex II)

  • Recycling not limited to phase out, market trends and conversion options but also its own regulatory and political developments

  • Geographical focus for recycling will rely heavily on implementation of national and international regulations


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www.intertanko.com

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