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Monitoring and managing technology trends and discontinuities. November 15, 2006 Ed Granger-Happ, CTO. So what are we going to talk about?. Being a CTO Save the Children Crystal Balling – trends and discontinuities The Case of the Legacy Dilemma Q&A. Ed Granger-Happ Who? .

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Monitoring and managing technology trends and discontinuities l.jpg

Monitoring and managing technology trends and discontinuities

November 15, 2006

Ed Granger-Happ, CTO


So what are we going to talk about l.jpg
So what are we going to talk about? discontinuities

  • Being a CTO

  • Save the Children

  • Crystal Balling – trends and discontinuities

  • The Case of the Legacy Dilemma

  • Q&A


Ed granger happ who l.jpg

Ed Granger-Happ discontinuitiesWho?


An introduction l.jpg
An introduction discontinuities

  • Some things on my resume:

    • I’m a graduate of Drew University in NJ

    • I spent 13 years on Wall Street & 10 running my own management consulting business --both in IT

    • I’ve been at Save the Children 6+ years

    • Save the Children is my third career


  • An introduction5 l.jpg
    An introduction discontinuities

    • Some things not on my resume:

      • I was born on Mother’s Day

      • I have two step-sons, David (15) and Scott (12);

      • My wife, Janet, and I founded CT’s first on-line literary magazine in 1997

        • www.fairfieldreview.org


    An introduction6 l.jpg
    An introduction discontinuities

    • I’ve been a member of the CIO Executive Council since 2005

      • I’m also a member of SIM,

      • The NGO-CIO group, and

      • An advisor to the IWG/ECB project

    • I chair an organization called NetHope, which I helped found in 2001

      • Details at www.nethope.org


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    What about being a CTO for an international nonprofit? discontinuities

    • The pictures say it all…



    What is this large object l.jpg
    What is this large object? discontinuities

    a very large ship 5 miles inland in the middle of the road


    Nepal server room l.jpg
    Nepal Server Room discontinuities



    All that s left of home l.jpg
    All that’s left of home discontinuities


    Save the children www savethechildren org l.jpg

    Save the Children discontinuitieswww.savethechildren.org


    Save the children some facts and figures l.jpg
    Save the Children discontinuitiesSome facts and figures

    • An international nonprofit relief and development agency

    • 75 years-old (next year)

    • In 40 countries, including the U.S.

    • One of 28 members in the Save the Children Alliance

    • $397M in operating revenue in 2005

      • 44% from Contributions and Private Grants

      • 32% from Government Grants & Contracts

      • 8% from Child Sponsorship

    • 64 million people reached in 2005, half of which were children.


    However l.jpg
    However… discontinuities

    This says nothing about our mission:

    Creating real and lasting change for children in need in the United States and around the world.


    Or our brand l.jpg
    Or our brand discontinuities

    Save the Children



    A question l.jpg

    There comes a time in your life when your agenda shifts from success to significance

    When will that be?

    A Question


    Monitoring trends and discontinuities l.jpg

    Monitoring Trends and Discontinuities from success to significance

    Or Windexing the Crystal Ball


    Some takeaways l.jpg
    Some Takeaways from success to significance

    • Cultivate peripheral vision

    • Pilot your way to knowing

    • Have the humility to let it go


    Some strategic questions l.jpg
    Some strategic questions from success to significance

    • What type of “futures” organization will you be?

    • Where do you look for future trends?

    • Will future innovation come from strategic intent or natural selection?

    • What are the fail-fast experiments you will run?

    • What side will you take on divergent choices?

    • How do you embrace surprises and revolutions?


    Slide23 l.jpg

    "The art of prophecy is very difficult-- especially with respect to the future."

    --Mark Twain


    Trends l.jpg
    Trends respect to the future."

    Main Entry: trendFunction: noun

    1:a line of general direction or movement <the trend of the coast turned toward the west>2 a: a prevailing tendency or inclination : DRIFT <current trends in education>

    b: a general movement : SWING <the trend toward suburban living>

    c: a current style or preference : VOGUE <new fashion trends>

    d: a line of development : APPROACH <new trends in cancer research>


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    Divergences respect to the future."

    • Main Entry: di·ver·genceFunction: noun1 a: a drawing apart (as of lines extending from a common center) b: DIFFERENCE, DISAGREEMENTc: the acquisition of dissimilar characters by related organisms in unlike environments2: a deviation from a course or standard3: the condition of being mathematically divergent


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    Trends, Divergences, OK— respect to the future." But Discontinuities??

    Main Entry: dis·con·ti·nu·ityFunction: noun1:lack of continuity or cohesion2: GAP


    A picture l.jpg
    A Picture respect to the future."

    A Discontinuity

    A Divergence

    A Trend


    1 what type of futures organization will you be l.jpg
    1. What type of “futures” organization will you be? respect to the future."

    • First-movers – the pioneers, trail-blazers, fast & agile leaders

      • but with higher costs and higher risks—requires serious focus

    • Second-movers – the fast followers; capitalize on the mistakes/learning of pioneers;

      • follow the successes, but need to overcome the leaders

    • Frugal-movers – the pragmatic followers; more cautiously follows industry leaders, picking what works well, waiting for lower costs of entry;

      • may constantly be in catch-up mode

    • Late-movers – the laggards, miss most opportunities, resist change;

      • sometimes get lucky


    2 where do you look for future trends l.jpg
    2. Where do you look for future trends? respect to the future."

    • Books, Journals, Conferences

    • Futurists –Paul Saffo

      • “Let the trends lead” ..looking for the “weak signals.”

    • Economists –Martin Wolf

      • “China is becoming a global trading state—the biggest change in our life-time."

    • Demographers –David DeLong

      • “More than 50% of IT workers in US government are eligible to retire by 2013”

    • Other Industries

      • Hitachi auto example –Damian Smith


    Slide30 l.jpg

    Auto Industry 20 Years Ago respect to the future."

    • Software Today

    Business growth slowing

    Industry consolidation

    Technology innovation slowing

    Move to offshore manufacturing

    Globalization of competition

    Business growth slowing

    Industry consolidation

    Technology innovation slowing

    Move to offshore development

    Globalization of competition

    • Auto Industry Today

    • Software in 10 Years

    Common application platforms

    Niche applications, products & brands

    Global competitors

    Offshore service development

    Onshore application assembly

    Common product platforms

    Niche products & brands

    Global competitors

    Offshore component manufacturing

    Onshore product assembly

    • Inspiring Your Next Success!®

    • © Copyright 2006 Hitachi Consulting All Rights Reserved, Proprietary and Confidential, For Discussion Purposes Only


    The history of computing l.jpg
    The history of computing… respect to the future."

    “It feels like the early 80's in terms of the number of disruptive innovations (like when PCs started)” –Chuck Williams, CIO Pfizer


    Lest we forget l.jpg
    Lest we forget… respect to the future."

    “Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” –George Santayana


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    Future trends... Where else? respect to the future."

    • From the field

      • The case of IM in Manila

      • The need for headquarters humility

    • From children

      • May be more about to whom do you look for future trends?

      • I watch my boys who are the un-email generation


    The trend of communications l.jpg
    The trend of communications respect to the future."


    The bottom line l.jpg

    Cultivate a healthy sense of peripheral vision: looking elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    Discontinuities

    The bottom line?


    3 from where will future innovation come l.jpg
    3. From where will future innovation come? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • Strategic intention?

    • Natural selection?

    • Disruptive innovation?


    The rise and fall of strategic planning l.jpg
    The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    “A good deal of corporate planning ... is like a ritual rain dance. It has no effect on the weather that follows, but those who engage in it think it does. ... Moreover, much of the advice related to corporate planning is directed at improving the dancing, not the weather.”—Brian Quinn, Dartmouth Univ.


    Natural selection darwinian or strategic l.jpg
    Natural Selection elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left fieldDarwinian or Strategic?

    “If you add enough branches to a tree (variation) and intelligently prune the deadwood (selection), then you’ll likely evolve into a collection of healthy branches well positioned to prosper in a ever-changing environment.” –Jim Collins


    Disruptive innovation threats and opportunities l.jpg
    Disruptive Innovation: elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left fieldThreats and Opportunities

    “If you look back in history, the disruptees always viewed new technology as a threat. In reality, they were all poised on the brink of a big growth opportunity. But because the way they reacted was first to discount this innovation as meaningful and second to frame it as a threat, they ended up getting killed.” –Clayton Christensen


    4 what are the fail fast experiments you will run l.jpg
    4. What are the fail-fast experiments you will run? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • The logic goes like this:

      If you need a lot of at-bat-swings to hit a home run, then it’s better to swing at more pitches to hit one out of the park sooner.


    Slide41 l.jpg
    So… elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • We funded one guy to visit our field offices and build PDA forms for data collection before making PDAs mainstream

    • Appointed an engineer to install single VOIP phones on Country Director’s desktops before adopting a VOIP strategy

    • Ran a find-the-expert knowledge management directory pilot as a throw-away


    A bias for action l.jpg
    A Bias for Action elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field


    And be ready to fail fast l.jpg
    …and be ready to fail fast elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    Committedby Michael Fry November 21, 2003


    The bottom line44 l.jpg
    The bottom line? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • Pilot your way to knowing: increase the number of small, fast experiments


    5 what side will you take on divergent choices l.jpg
    5. What side will you take on divergent choices? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • Divergent choices are about either-or bets, for example:

      • Best of breed vs. enterprise database

      • Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems vs. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)

      • Build technology and operations incrementally or leapfrog competitors by buying the best operations.


    6 how do you embrace surprises and revolutions l.jpg
    6. How do you embrace surprises and revolutions? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • The case of SKYPE

    • Most every IT innovation came from outside the established IT department… take the PC

    • Lyndon Johnson’s observation about the tent


    The bottom line47 l.jpg
    The bottom line? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • When a surprise comes your way, have the humility to let go of the established technology and embrace the new one

    • If you don’t, your employees (or competitors) will


    In conclusion for the future file l.jpg
    In conclusion… elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left fieldfor the future file

    • Strategy is about making either-or bets

    • Risk management is about hedging those bets

    • Leadership is about having the early humility to admit you were wrong and the courage to act quickly


    Questions l.jpg
    Questions? elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    Truth comes from the dialog


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    The Case of the Legacy Dilemma elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left fieldBreak-out Session


    The case of the legacy dilemma l.jpg
    The Case of the Legacy Dilemma elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • Break-out groups

      • Choose a scribe

      • Choose a time keeper

      • Discuss the case (max 30 minutes)

      • Answer the three questions

      • Reach consensus on some recommendations: top-3 only

      • Appoint a presenter

      • Reconvene and present results to the class (5 min. presentation)

      • Be ready to go in 50 minutes


    A generic nonprofit business model l.jpg
    A generic nonprofit business model elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    Beneficiaries

    Impact

    Programs

    Donors


    The three questions l.jpg
    The Three Questions elsewhere, off the trending paths for the signals coming in from left field

    • Which system needs can be deferred and why?

    • What future trends may impact this decision?

    • What are the risks and return trade-offs for each?


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