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From Ideas to Action: Clean Energy Solutions for Asia that Address Climate Change Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party, ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Prepared for International Conference on Asia’s Emerging Response to Climate Change Bangkok, Thailand 23 November 2007. Overview.

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Overview

From Ideas to Action:Clean Energy Solutions for Asiathat Address Climate Change Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party,ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate ProgramPrepared for International Conference onAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate ChangeBangkok, Thailand23 November 2007


Overview

Overview

From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options

Overview of Thailand Country Reporty

Overview of new regional program on clean energy


Eco asia clean development and climate program geographic coverage

ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage

China

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries


Usaid funded review of clean energy priorities in asia

USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia

Objectives

Identify clean energy priorities – technologies, sectors, and initiatives

Identify opportunities for regional action

Methodology

organized “listening tours” with 220 key energy stakeholders in the 6 countries

researched and prepared more than 300 profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs

prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries


Comparative evaluation of fuel options

Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options

Supply-Side Energy

Coal (CCT and carbon storage)

Petroleum

Natural Gas (incl. methane capture)

Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal, biofuels)

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Power generation and transmission efficiency

End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances, lighting, industry, transport, etc.)

5


Overview

DEMAND DRIVERSEconomic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand

Source: APERC 2006


Untapped efficiency but regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements

UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements

Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000

Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001


Oil and energy security southeast asia will import 70 of its oil by 2030

OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030

Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption

Source: APEC 2006


Coal reliance 1 coal is the fuel of choice for the next 15 20 years to meet demand

COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand

Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005

Hydro

The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030.

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia

Source: BP Statistics 2006


Coal reliance 2 share of coal increasing dramatically in india asean

COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN

Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030


Criteria pollutant levels in asian megacities

Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities

LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels

Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)


Increasing co2 emissions developing asia s co2 emissions will increase 4 fold

INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold

Current

26 billion metric tons CO2

2030

40 billion metric tons CO2

Source: APERC, TERI


Projected co 2 emissions by sector 2002 2030

Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030)

2030

2002

ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2 emissions from power plants

Source: APERC, TERI


What is the answer there is no single silver bullet

What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet

  • Coal

  • Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13 billion metric tons of annual CO2 by 2030

  • Petroleum

  • Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into importers; others will import 70-90% of their needs)

  • Natural Gas

  • By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs.

  • Nuclear

  • Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only approx. 4-8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam)

  • Renewable Sources

  • Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to account for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030


Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type

Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type

Typical cost of

avoided electricity generation

(about 6-7 US cents/kWh)

The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant

Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006


Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option

Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option

A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at no net cost


Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation

Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation


Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation

Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation

Energy-efficient lighting and appliances

Clean coal technologies

Renewable energy technologies

(esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity)

Energy-efficiency in the transport sector

Biofuels for transportation

Methane capture


Implementing just these options can reduce future emissions from asia s developing economies by 25

Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%


Overview of thailand country report

Overview of Thailand Country Report


Thailand primary energy demand by sources

Thailand Primary Energy Demand by Sources

Renewables (8%)

Hydro (0.3%)

Gas (25%)

Oil (40%)

Coal (25%)

Source: APERC, 2006


Forecast electricity supply by fuel type

Forecast Electricity Supply by Fuel Type

Source: EGAT PDP (4 June 2007)


Share of energy related co 2 emissions by sector

Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Sector

Residential (1%)

*

Transport (26%)

Industry (28%)

Transformation other than electricity (5%)

Electricity Generation (40%)

*Note: no data available for commercial

Source: APERC, 2006


Vehicular related emission of pm in bangkok kilotons of pm 10

Vehicular-Related Emission of PM in Bangkok(kilotons of PM10)

Source: ADB, 2006


Successful implementation of dsm in thailand

Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand

Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006


Overview

Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy Sales)

Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency. August 2006.


Cost comparison of clean energy options

Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options

Demand Side Measures

Supply Side Measures


Clean energy potential 1 of 2

Clean Energy Potential (1 of 2)

  • Up grade standards for the labeled appliances as well as to add more appliances such as hot water pot and freezer

  • Scale up EE programs and incentive for industry

  • Building energy codes

  • The government plans to utilize more RE for heat and power, up to 19% of TPES in 2016

  • Bio-fuels and waste to energy

  • Improve efficiency of existing power plants by using CHP

  • Financing through tax incentive


Clean energy potential 2 of 2

Clean Energy Potential (2 of 2)

  • EE and DSM programs are the most cost-effective

  • Labeling scheme for energy consumption of new vehicles

  • Clean coal technology but has yet be accepted by the public

  • Nuclear power is being considered as alternative source of power in order to decrease reliance on NG and to reduce GHG


Need for ghg reporting capacity building

Need for GHG Reporting Capacity Building

  • Bureau of Energy Research, DEDE, is responsible for estimation of air pollutant emission (CO2, CO, NOx, CH4 and SO2) from energy consumption based on IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories

  • The Climate Change Coordinating unit is responsible for the overall GHG inventories.

  • Needs include such as; development of coefficient values to calculate GHG of each activity, e.g., rice and pig farming; policy planning guideline on how to mitigate GHG, e.g., if a lot of methane from rice farming is a concern, then, how would the Ministry of Agriculture plan for rice farming area?


The usaid eco asia clean development and climate program

The USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program


Eco asia clean development and climate program

ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

Findings of the Regional Analysis

A number of viable, low-cost options are ready for immediate implementation

Implementation often limited due to lack of awareness, or technical, institutional, and financial barriers

Program Objective

Promote market transformation toward clean energy development in Asia

Activities

increase policy and market incentives

mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing

share knowledge to accelerate deployment


Eco asia clean development and climate program1

ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

Promotes Market Transformation for Clean Energy Development in Asia

  • Increase policy and market incentives

  • Mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing

  • Share best practices and knowledge to accelerate deployment

    Promotes Partnerships and Improves Regional Cooperation

  • Leverage resources of key regional partners – APP,ADB, ASEAN, and APEC

    Supports National Commitments

  • Ensure commitments and ownership at national level

  • Address national clean energy needs and priorities

    Geographic Scope: China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam


Program areas and outcomes

Clean Development and Climate Change

Program Areas and Outcomes


Thank you

Thank You!


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