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Introduction to Evidential Reasoning

Introduction to Evidential Reasoning. Belief Functions. Ignorance Types. Incompleteness: Combinatory John is married, but his wife's name is not given Combinatory All computer scientists like pizza, but their names are not available. Imprecision:

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Introduction to Evidential Reasoning

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  1. Introduction to Evidential Reasoning Belief Functions

  2. Ignorance Types Incompleteness: Combinatory John is married, but his wife's name is not given Combinatory All computer scientists like pizza, but their names are not available. Imprecision: Combinatory John's wife is Jill or Joan. Combinatory Jill is not John's wife. Interval theory Paul's height is between 170 and 180. Fuzzy sets Paul is tall. Possibility Theory the possibility for Paul's height to be about 175 cm. (physical form) Uncertainty: Probability Theory Upper-Lower Probabilities Possibility Theory the possibility that Paul's height is about 175 cm. (epistemic form) Subjective Probabilities Belief functions (Credibility) the chance of it being "heads" when tossing a coin. my degree of belief that cancer X is due to a virus.

  3. 0.15 aleatory component of that probability. Justifiedcomponent of the probability given to M (called the belief or the support) A murder case A somehow reliable witness testifies that the killer is a male. -Testimony reliability a = 0.7 -A priori equal belief that the killer is a male or a female. Is the killer Male? M = ‘the killer is amale’ Classical probability analysis P(M) = P(M/reliable)P(reliable) + P(M/¬reliable)P(¬reliable) P(M)=1x0.7 + 0.5x0.3= 0.85 Evidence Theory- DS Theory bel(M) = 0.7. 0.3 0.7

  4. Bayesian approach Answering ‘‘what is the belief in A?as expressed by the unconditional probability that A is true given evidence, e ?’’ Assumption: precise probabilities can be assessed forallevents. Too rare… Why believe one hypothesis other than thatprovided by the evidence?? The evidence have to bere-organisedso thatprobabilities sum to unity. Pros -rules of probability calculus : uncontroversial, constant conclusions with the probability assessments. -Bayesian theory is easy tounderstand. Cons It is least suited to problems where there is -partial orcomplete ignorance -limited or conflicting information due to assumptions made(e.g. equi-probability) Cannot deal withimprecise, qualitative or natural language judgements such as ‘‘if A then probably B’’.

  5. Dempster–Shafer approach Answering the question ‘‘what is the belief in A, as expressed by the probability that the proposition A is provable given the evidence?’’ An alternative to traditional probabilistic theory for themathematical representation of uncertainty. Whereas a Bayesian approach assesses probabilities directly for the answer, the Dempster–Shafer approach assesses evidence for related questions. -combination of evidence obtained from multiplesources and the modeling of conflict between them. -Allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals Pros -Ability to model various types of partial ignorance, limited orconflicting evidence -more flexible model than Bayes’ theorem. -computationally simplerthan Bayes’ theorem. -No assumption regarding the probability of the individualconstituents of the set or interval. -evaluation ofrisk and reliability in engineering applications when it is not possible to obtain a precisemeasurement from experiments, or when knowledge is obtained from expert elicitation. Cons -Can produce conclusionsthat are counter-intuitive. Dempster–Shafer is most suited to situationswhere beliefs are numerically expressed and where there is some degree of ignorance,i.e. there is an incomplete model.

  6. Belieffunctions Ω the frame of discernment(elements of the setΩ are called ‘worlds’) One “actual world”ω0. But which? An agent can only express the strength ofhis/her opinion (called degree of belief) that the actual world belongs to this orthat subset of Ω. Shafer belief functionbel : 2Ω→ [0, 1] bel(A) denotes the strength of Agent’s belief that ω0A. bel satisfiesthe following inequalities: Other useful functions(‘1-1’ with bel) 1.basic belief assignment (bba)m : 2Ω→ [0, 1] defined as: m(A) for A Ωis called the basic belief mass (bbm) given to A. It may happen that m() > 0. The relation from m to bel is given by: 2. plausibility function pl : 2Ω→ [0, 1] is defined as: Shafer : bel is ‘normalized’ => closed world assumption=>bel(Ω)=1, pl(Ω)=1,m() = 0.

  7. Observations in belief functions Not supporting any strictly more specific propositions A basic belief mass given to a set A supports also that the actual world is in every subsets that contains A. The degree of belief bel(A) for Aquantifies the total amount of justified specific supportgiven to A. We say justifiedbecause we include in bel(A) only the basic belief masses given tosubsets of A. m({x,y}) given to {x,y} could support x if further information indicates this.However given the available information the basic belief mass can only be given to {x,y}. We say specificbecause the basic belief mass m(Ø) is not included in bel(A) as it is givento the subset Ø. Entertained beliefs and beliefs in a decision context Uncertainty induces beliefs=“graded dispositions that guide our behavior” ‘rational’agent behavior described within decision contexts “It has beenargued that decisions are ‘rational’ only if we use a probability measure over the various possible states of the nature and compute with it the expected utilityof each possible act, the optimal act being the one that maximizes theseexpected utilities (DeGroot, 1970; Savage, 1954)”. beliefs can only beobserved through our decisions=>use of probability functions to represent quantified beliefs 2 categories of beliefs:Entertained beliefs and beliefs in a decision context Entertained beliefs=>provide the quantified belief of the Agent (use of Justified Evidences) Beliefs in a decision context=>provide a method for rational decision making(probability function).

  8. Dempster Rule of Combination Zadeh provides a compelling example of erroneous results. 1 patient with neurological symptoms,2 physicians Doctor1: meningitis 0.99 brain tumor 0.01 Doctor2: concussion 0.99 brain tumor0.01. Using Dempster : m (brain tumor) = Bel (brain tumor) = 1 !!! Complete support for a very unlikely diagnosis problem when stronglyconflicting evidence

  9. Problem of Dempster when highly conflicting evidence System failure, 2 experts. Failure caused by Component A,B or C. Expert 1: m1(A) = 0.99 (failure due to Component A) m1(B) = 0.01 (failure due to Component B) Expert 2: m2(B) = 0.01 (failure due to Component B) m2(C) = 0.99 (failure due to Component C) Dempster’s Rule combination of the masses 1. To calculate the combined basic probability assignment for a particular cell,simply multiply the masses from the associated column and row. 2. Where the intersection is nonempty, the masses for a particular set from eachsource are multiplied, e.g., m12(B) = (0.01)(0.01) = 0.0001. 3. Where the intersection is empty, this represents conflicting evidence andshould be calculated as well. For the empty intersection of the two sets A and C associate with Expert 1 and 2, respectively, there is a mass associated withit. m1(A) m2(C)=(0.99)(0.99) =(0.9801). 4. Then sum the masses for all sets and the conflict. 5. The only nonzero value is for the combination of B, m12(B) = 0.0001. In thisexample there is only one intersection that yields B, but in a more complicatedexample it is possible to find more intersections to yield B. 6. For K, there are three cells that contribute to conflict represented by emptyintersections. K = (0.99)(0.01) + (0.99)(0.01) + (0.99)(0.99) = 0.9999 7. Calculate the joint, m1(B) m2(B) = (.01)(.01) / [1-0.9999] =1 Bel (B) = 1!!!

  10. Other combination Rules Yager’s rule almost same matrix asDempster’s rule. Exceptions in thenomenclature and allocation of conflict: 1. Groundprobability assignments (q) instead of basic probability assignments (m) 2. q(Ø) instead of using K (but q(Ø)=K) Not normalization by factor (1-K). significant reduction of the value for Belief -> counterintuitive results sometimes large expansion of Plausibility. Inagaki’s Rule The matrix same as Dempster’s. -ground probability functions like Yager. m12(B) depends on the value of k which is now a parameter. k : experimentally or by expert expectation When k = 0 => Yager’s Rule. When k =1/(1- q(Æ)) => Dempster’s rule m12(B) 1, because sums of all masses must be equal to 1. k=> filtering of the evidence.

  11. Other combination Rules Zhang’s Rule measure of intersectionbased on the cardinality of the sets. Problems withZhang’s measure of intersection: 1. The equivalence with Dempster’s rule when the cardinality is 1 for all relevant sets or when the |C|=|A||B| in the circumstance of conflicting evidence. (This should not pose a problem if there is no significant conflict.) 2. If the cardinality of B was greater than 1, even completely overlapping sets will be scaled. Mixing The formulation for mixing in this case corresponds to the sum of m1(B)(1/2) and m2(B)(1/2). m12(A) = (1/2)(0.99) = 0.445 m12(B) = (1/2)(0.01)+ (1/2) (0.01) = 0.01 m12(C) = (1/2)(0.99) = 0.445 Dubois and Prade’s Disjunctive Consensus Pooling Unions of multiple sets

  12. Which model to use depends on the specific application

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