OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM
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OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM. An Analysis Toolbox for Decision-Makers: A Focus on Freight and the Economy May 2004. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW. Oregon integrated analysis program Program overview Recent interest in freight Project implications Economic & Bridge Options Study Case study

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Oregon modeling improvement program

OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

An Analysis Toolbox for Decision-Makers:

A Focus on Freight and the Economy

May 2004


Presentation overview

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

  • Oregon integrated analysis program

    • Program overview

    • Recent interest in freight

    • Project implications

  • Economic & Bridge Options Study

    • Case study

    • $2.5B investment in Oregon infrastructure


Comprehensive program

RESOURCES

OUTREACH

DEVELOPMENT

IMPLEMENTATION

DATA

Funding

OMSC

Research

Standards

HH Activity & Travel Survey

Qualified Staff

Peer Review Panel

Joint Model Development

Protocols

Recreation/Tourism Survey

Equipment

Statewide User Group

Rural Joint Model Estimation

Case Studies

OR Travel Behavior Survey

Training & Education

Urban Joint Model Estimation

Long. Panel/Cross Sec. Survey

Information Sharing

Model Enhancements

Commodity Flow Data

Communication

Documentation Enhancement

Freight Shipper/Carrier Survey

Formal Education

TRANSIMS

Truck Intercept Survey

Transportation & Land Use

Truck O&D Survey

Model Integration Program

GIS

COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM


Why are decision making tools important

WHY ARE DECISION-MAKING TOOLS IMPORTANT?

  • Allow policy makers to:

    • Use fact-based information along with anecdotal

    • Minimize bias

  • Help identify unintended results of policy decisions

  • Account for dynamic interaction of transportation, land use and economic policies


Freight is the economy in motion

FREIGHT IS THE ECONOMY IN MOTION

  • Movement of passenger vehicles has been the focus in transportation

  • The push has been to relate transportation with land use

  • BUT, land use and transportation are indirectly related through economic activity


Historical approach to truck traffic

HISTORICAL APPROACH TO TRUCK TRAFFIC

  • Trucks were treated as “large cars”

    • Passenger car equivalency values

  • Truck freight is a recent issue

    • Reserve capacity being used up

  • Effects of limited capacity differ

    • Cars carry passengers

    • Trucks carry freight


Oregon modeling improvement program

HIGHWAY FREIGHT ISSUES

  • Reliability and connectivity

  • Delay – expected and unexpected

  • Competitive edge

    • Expanded markets

  • Elevate freight in policy discussions

    • Clearly define issues and impacts


Integrated analysis changes the questions

Yesterday

What if we build X?

How bad is congestion going to get?

Today

Truck-rail diversion

Network reliability

Economic competitiveness

Market accessibility in a global context

Sustainability

Equity

Leverage for public-private financing

Pricing

INTEGRATED ANALYSIS CHANGES THE QUESTIONS


Move from a linear decision making process

Policy

Question

Technical Analysis

Results

Decision/

Action

MOVE FROM A LINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS


Move from a linear decision making process1

Policy

Question

Technical Analysis

Results

Decision/

Action

Policy

POLICY

QUESTION

Policy/Technical

REFINE

QUESTION

TECHNICAL

ANALYSIS

RESULTS

Technical/Policy

Technical

MOVE FROM A LINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS


What we know from integrated analysis

WHAT WE KNOW FROM INTEGRATED ANALYSIS

  • The type of transportation improvements and where they are made affects where jobs and people locate

  • Different tax structures affect where firms locate and where workers live

  • The supply of land affects the price of land, in turn affecting where firms and households locate.

    Integrated analysis does not dictate policy, it provides information on how policies will likely play out


Statewide bridge deficiency analysis

STATEWIDE BRIDGE DEFICIENCY ANALYSIS

  • Nearly 25% of Oregon bridges are beyond their 50 year expected life

  • An increasing number of bridges are being weight restricted

  • Truck detours are disruptive to local communities

  • Weight restrictions impose costs to the freight industry and shippers

  • The question is “when” not “if” the state will invest in Oregon’s aging bridges


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