Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment

1. Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment Practical Local Government Strategies Steve Gawler ICLEI Oceania 14 May 2010

2. We can’t keep on building higher and higher levees

3. What is ICLEI Oceania? Local government association and agency • Not-for-profit • Membership-based • International Oceania Secretariat Dedicated to Local Action for Sustainability

4. ICLEI Oceania’s Work on Climate Change Mitigation: Cities for Climate Protection Campaign (since 1997), new CCP Integrated Action program 2010 Adaptation: CCP Adaptation Initiative (2007-2009) Local Government Climate Change Adaptation Toolkit (2008/09) Adaptive and Resilient Communities (ongoing) Indonesian Cities Climate Alliance (ongoing) Resilient Cities 2010 Conference

5. Sustainable infrastructure? Sustainability is the capacity of cities and towns to meet the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to do the same.Sustainable development must simultaneously protect and enhance the Earth’s life support systems. A continuing process, this requires the sharing and management of economic, environmental and social resources equitably within the community. ICLEI Oceania 2010

7. Adaptation and Resilience Elements of Resilience • Redundancy – substitutable services when one system is disrupted • Flexibility – to absorb sudden shocks and slow onset challenges, avoiding catastrophic failure

8. Adaptation and Resilience • Capacity to reorganize – to change and evolve rather than returning to previous methods • Capacity to learn – to internalize and respond to previous experiences, avoid repeating mistakes

9. Gold Coast City Adaptation Principles Infrastructure Proactively plan and deliver infrastructure that supports the development of resilience in communities and is capable of adapting to a changing climate during its lifecycle or at the time of asset renewal

15. So, we can’t keep on building higher and higher doorways! Fail-safe or Safe-fail?

19. What is the ICLEI Climate Change adaptation planning process?

20. Phase 1: Establish the Context ARC Program Framework Phase 5: Review and Restrategise Assess Increase in Adaptive Capacity and Resilience Analysing Climate Change Risks &Opportunities ICLEI Capacity Building Program: Adaptive and Resilient Communities (ARC) Assessing Council’s Adaptive Capacity Systematically Reconsider Options Phase 2: Prioritise Areas for Action & Set Goals Phase 4: Monitor and Report Develop Options & Assumptions Phase 3: Develop Adaptation Action Plan Implement Adaptation Action Plan Translating Priorities into Actions

21. H p.2 ARC Phase 1: Establish the Context 1.1 Establish an adaptation working group 1.2 Teleconference: Objectives of ARC Program 1.3 Climate change adaptation communications brief 1.4 Council questionnaire on climate change adaptation 1.5 Council document mapping 1.6 ARC Workshop 1: Establish the Context 1.7 Internal stakeholder analysis 1.8 Local climate change impacts research inventory 1.9 External stakeholder analysis 1.10 CCA context review

22. Council Working Group ARC Facilitation Approach External Stakeholders ICLEI Oceania Technical facilitator ARC Wiki Council Primary Contact Councilors Council Secondary Contact Council Administration

23. Climate Change Scenarios

24. Climate Scenarios • Coherent, plausible description of a future state of the climate • Means of understanding the potential impacts of climate change • Not a prediction of the future climate, but based on certain assumptions

25. Scenarios - Why Bother? Select one or two scenarios to: • Provide a consistent basis for assessing climate risks • Narrow down adaptation options for planning and decision-making (‘What are we adapting to?’)

26. H p.4 Climate Change Scenario B1 Lower emissions growth scenario Assumption: • Rapid shift to less fossil-fuel intensive industries. Expected change: • Weak growth in CO2 emissions until 2040, then decline. • Global temperature increase relative to 1990 of 1.8°C (1.1 to 2.9°C) is likely

27. Emissions Growth Scenarios Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

28. H p.4 Climate Change Scenario A1B Medium emissions growth scenario Assumption: • Balanced use of different energy sources – not just fossil fuels. Expected change: • CO2 emissions increase until 2030 and begin to decline around 2050 • By 2100 a global temperature increase of 2.8°C (1.7 to 4.4°C) is likely.

29. Emissions Growth Scenarios Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

30. H p.4 Climate Change Scenario A1FI Higher emissions growth scenario Assumption: • Strong economic growth based on continued dependence on fossil fuels Expected change: • CO2 concentrations more than triple, relative to pre-industrial levels, by 2100. • A global temperature increase of 4.0°C (2.4 to 6.4°C) is likely.

31. Emissions Growth Scenarios Source: Victorian Government DSE, 2008.

32. Observed Emissions Source: Will Steffen/Department of Climate Change (2009): Climate Change 2009 - Faster Change and More Serious Risks

33. What Are We Adapting To? • Observed global warming: • Observed change in average global temperature 1900-1999: +0.7˚C • Observed average annual temperature difference in 1998-2007 when compared with 1961-1990 period: +0.6˚C • Projected mid-range global warming: • By 2030: +0.9˚C • By 2070: +2.6˚C • By 2100: +3.7˚C

34. Risk & Opportunities Management Framework

35. From Impacts to Risks & Opportunities Objectives: • To become familiar with key projected impacts • To understand which impacts pose risks to which organisational goals

36. Why Risk Management? Climate change per se may not be a ‘risk’, but… …expected changes lead to specific impacts… …that pose a risk to (or an opportunity for) an organisation achieving its goals.

37. Scope of the Risk Management Process Geographic scope: • All of your LGA? • Only coastal or alpine areas? Organisational scope: • Risks to council? • Community risk? Time horizon considered: • Until 2030? • Until 2070?

38. Initial council risk assessments Kogarah Canada Bay Holroyd

39. Conceptual Modelling

40. Conceptual Modelling: Objectives Establishing the CONTEXT: Which climate change impacts need to be managed by council? What effects will these climate change impacts have on council and the community? Which key elements of council’s operations can be used to address these impacts and effects? Where are the main gaps of addressing climate change impacts at council?

42. Conceptual Modelling: Step 1 For each impact, choose Target Condition A state that you want your council or community to achieve in relation to a particular climate change impact Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise

43. Conceptual Modelling: Step 2 Choose Key Elements (Council Functions) Choose Council functions that would need to be involved in achieving the Target Condition Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise Natural Resource Management Target Condition Key Element

44. Conceptual Modelling: Step 3 Identify Direct Factors Processes or activities that need to be undertaken to contribute to Target Conditions Can be things council is already doing OR things it should be doing Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise Coastal habitat extension Natural Resource Management Key Element Target Condition Direct Factor

45. Conceptual Modelling: Step 4 Identify Indirect Factors Processes or activities that influence or determine the success of a Direct Factor Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise Acquisition of private land Coastal habitat extension Natural Resource Management Species conservation program Key Elements Target Condition Direct Factor Indirect Factors

46. Conceptual Modelling: Step 5 Identify Conditions Broader issues that affect the entire municipality Can be social, economic or environmental • Sea-change culture • Tourism-dependent economy Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise Acquisition of private land Coastal habitat extension Natural Resource Management Species conservation program Target Condition Key Elements Indirect Factors Conditions Direct Factor

47. Conceptual Modelling: Step 6 Risk & Opportunities Analysis Existing controls Current gaps Leverage partnerships, e.g. cooperation with other ARC councils? = Existing controls = Current gaps = Leverage partnerships • Sea-change culture • Tourism-dependent economy Adaptability to coastal erosion from sea-level rise Acquisition of private land Coastal habitat extension Natural Resource Management Species conservation program Target Condition Key Elements Direct Factor Indirect Factors Conditions

49. Phase 1: Establish the Context ARC Program Framework Phase 5: Review and Restrategise H p.1 Assess Increase in Adaptive Capacity and Resilience Analysing Climate Change Risks &Opportunities ICLEI Capacity Building Program: Adaptive and Resilient Communities (ARC) Assessing Council’s Adaptive Capacity Systematically Reconsider Options Phase 2: Prioritise Areas for Action & Set Goals Phase 4: Monitor and Report Develop Options & Assumptions Phase 3: Develop Adaptation Action Plan Implement Adaptation Action Plan Translating Priorities into Actions

50. Some final thoughts Future sustainable infrastructure planning has to be done in context of Climate Change and the principles of resilience and sustainability: • redundancy • flexibility • capacity to reorganise, • capacity to learn