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Ocean Modeling at NCEP. Toward a national backbone capability. Hendrik L. Tolman NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch [email protected] Background. 2004 SAB report on ocean modeling and 2006 NOAA response: NCEP to provide ocean modeling backbone for NOAA.

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ocean modeling at ncep

Ocean Modeling at NCEP

Toward a national backbone capability

Hendrik L. Tolman

NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

[email protected]

background
Background
  • 2004 SAB report on ocean modeling and 2006 NOAA response:
    • NCEP to provide ocean modeling backbone for NOAA.
    • Part of bigger ecosystems modeling effort
      • NOS lead (Marie Colton).
    • Part of bigger national picture.
      • Partnerships outside NOAA (Navy, IOOS, USACE, academia ….)
    • NCEP focus on physical modeling and larger scales.
      • Enabling coastal scales physical modeling.
      • Enabling ecosystems (Earth System) modeling.
      • Enabling operational modeling.
the big picture

Forecast

1

The big picture

Oceans

HYCOM

Wavewatch III

Climate

CFS

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

Coupled

MOM3

1.7B Obs/Day

Satellites

99.9%

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Global

Forecast

System

Global Data

Assimilation

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Air Quality

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

GFS, Canadian Global Model

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

NOAH Land Surface Model

the big picture4

2

The big picture

Executing the weather-climate strategy

Need for appropriate ocean modeling component at all scales at NCEP

slide5

National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software)

1

Application Driver

ESMF Superstructure

(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Analysis

--------------

Ocean

-------------

Wind Waves

--------------

LSM

--------------

AQ

--------------

Ens. Gen.

--------------

Ecosystem

--------------

Etc

Atmospheric Model

Dynamics

(1,2)

Physics

(1,2,3)

Coupler1

Coupler2

Coupler3

Coupler4

Coupler5

Coupler6

Coupler7

Etc.

1-1

1-2

1-3

2-1

2-2

2-3

Multi-component ensemble

+

Stochastic forcing

Bias Corrector

Post processor & Product Generator

Verification

Resolution change

ESMF Utilities

(clock, error handling, etc)

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL

2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments

Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL…)

present capability
Present capability
  • Operational at NCEP
    • 1/12º resolution Real Time Ocean Forecast System for North Atlantic Ocean. (RTOFS-Atlantic).
      • HYCOM based, developed as part of NOPP partnership.
      • Other HYCOM applications are scheduled for development (regional, global).
      • Presently deterministic and short range only.
    • MOM3-4 (GFDL) ocean model as part of the coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS).
    • NOS/GFDL local applications are being transferred to NCEP super computing.
    • No ecosystem elements in operations.
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