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NWS Readiness for GOES-R and SNPP/JPSS

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services and Director, National Weather Service NOAA Satellite Conference College Park, MD April 8, 2013. NWS Readiness for GOES-R and SNPP/JPSS. Building a Weather Ready Nation.

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NWS Readiness for GOES-R and SNPP/JPSS

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  1. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services and Director, National Weather Service NOAA Satellite Conference College Park, MD April 8, 2013 NWS Readiness for GOES-R and SNPP/JPSS

  2. Building a Weather Ready Nation Building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather • Mission: • Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy • Vision…a Weather Ready Nation: • Society is prepared for and responds to weather dependent events • Success: • depends on ability to forecast and warn extreme events with enough lead time for people to plan, react, and take steps to mitigate

  3. Why a Weather Ready Nation?... Our Vulnerability to High-Impact Weather Has Increased

  4. In 2012… 14 Billion-Dollar Disasters Making the extraordinary ordinary Pre-Decisional**

  5. Global Observing System Computers (supercomputers, work stations) Data Assimilation & Modeling/Science Trained workforce Today: Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts begins with numerical prediction models Key components of a successful forecast • Global Observing System • ~2 Billion / day • 99.9 % remotely sensed, mostly from satellites • 35 different satellites now used Satellite contribution dominated by LEO

  6. Key components of a successful Warning Services/products • situational awareness • rapid data access • increasingly remotely sensed observations • decision support services /training Satellite contribution dominated by GEO

  7. LEO vs GEO use is blurring • GEO used mostly for forecaster situational awareness (SA) • LEO used mostly for models LEO and GEO now being used in models and by forecasters for SA Pre-Decisional**

  8. Observation Impact to NWP Note: 1) Sounders on Polar Satellites reduce forecast error most 2) Results are relevant for other NWP Centers, including NWS/NCEP Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF Making the extraordinary ordinary Pre-Decisional**

  9. Proving Grounds – Testbeds – JCSDAR2O-O2R Mass loading False color for reference Effective particle radius Ash height

  10. Key Challenges • Full Integration of LEO & GEO • Operational & Research • Traditional (e.g. IR-MW) & Emerging (e.g. GPSRO) • Remotely Sensed & In-Situ • Latency • 2.5 hour data assimilation (DA) window, data loses value quickly when used in later DA cycles • Minutes latency relevant to severe weather warnings

  11. NOAA Enterprise Shared Services Model Dissemination *

  12. In Summary • Satellite data remains critically important to the forecast and warning mission of NWS • Data access / latency needs are driving integrated dissemination plans • Testbeds / Proving Grounds focused on use of GEO and LEO will have to come to grips with blurring categories of satellite data

  13. Questions?

  14. Backups

  15. Observation Impact to NWP Courtesy: Ron Gelaro NASA / GMAO Making the extraordinary ordinary Pre-Decisional**

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