Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate

1. ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER)Applied Climate Change ConferenceMay 23-24, 2013 Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate Don C. MacIver mayor.maciver@hotmail.com Marianne Karsh mbkarsh@gmail.com

2. Climate Change is a global-local issue Sustainable Communities Competitiveness Biodiversity Safety/Health • Adaptation to: • Changing landscapes • Changing species/seeds • Changing ecosystems • Adaptation to: • Changing markets • Changing regulations • Changing technologies • Adaptation to: • Changing climate • Changing hazards • Changing behaviour

3. UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign Resilient Communities National Platform

4. POINT 1: The Atmosphere is unforgiving

5. POINT 2: The Climate is already Changing How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area? Since late 1800s Annual Temps: Warmed Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C Min Temps most ~4.1C Annual Precip: Slight Increase?

6. Toronto Pearson Airport Adapting to the Changing Climate 1981-2010 Normal Temp = 8.4 1971-2000 Normal Temp = 7.5 1961-1990Normal Temp = 7.2 Climate Change Ensemble Not Sign. Difference from 2001-2010 Decade

7. Celebrity Storms: Visible impacts with extremes… forest fires floods Waves and storms droughts, heat spells Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days

8. Threats to Biodiversity in Canada Land-Use Change Climate Change Insects/Disease/Fire Page 8

9. POINT 3: Landscapes are also changing • Loss of Biodiversity

10. POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.6 – 4.0 C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 6-15% Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3 Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate

11. Monitoring based on species at risk Monitoring based on status and trends in habitat Monitoring based on population trends Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity Biodiversity Monitoring Themes There are four general themes under which most forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall:

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15. Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global Biodiversity Observation Network “Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”

16. Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver Pre-settlement Baseline Biodiversity Data (1792) Climate Change Scenarios Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data southern Ontario in 1972. Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an ensemble of climate change models. • Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement period were significantly higher than today. • Using one climate change model, by itself, produced inflated results, compared to the ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models. • Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s are available from www.cccsn.ca and the climate-biodiversity examples at www.canadabiodiversity.ca. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) • Conclusion • Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e. planned adaptation). Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation, insect/disease controls and planned adaptation. • References • Butt, S. and A. Fenech. 2000. Pre-European Settlement Landcover Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp. • Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. • Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp. • MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp. • The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the level established at the time of the pre-settlement land surveys. • Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and only 5% of the original habitat remains today. • Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the incremental warming of the climate system will create a more favourable environment for a recovery (planned adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat biodiversity (native and new species) over the next hundred years. Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity Model. • The Smithsonian Institution network now numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with more than 100 sites across Canada, including more than 25 in southern Ontario. • In Canada, heat is the primary driver of climate-triggered changes in habitat biodiversity. • The heat unit by family biodiversity model is based on observational data and has helped understand (>85% explanation) and predict the effects of a changing climate.

17. Toronto Biodiversity Potential Page 17

18. Climate Change Experimental Biodiversity Site • Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) • and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures • on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto • Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of • native, new forest and herbaceous species • Info will be used to develop new planting protocols, • adaptive management practices under climate change

19. Biological Threats to Biodiversity M.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld Page 19

20. United Nations Publications Climate Change and Biodiversity

21. Publications • Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. • Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp. • MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp. • MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities,Municipal World Publication Page 21

22. Thank you!