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Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3 rd June 2011. Simon Upton, Director, Environment. Growth & development. Wealth and GDP (2005 US$ per capita, wealth on bottom axis). Low income. Middle income. Growth – not just a developing country concern. Demographics. Jobs. Debt.

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Green growth oecd canada 50 years 3 rd june 2011

Green Growth

OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS

3rd June 2011

Simon Upton, Director, Environment


Growth development
Growth & development

Wealth and GDP (2005 US$ per capita, wealth on bottom axis)

Low income

Middle income



The need for green
The need for green

2050

World GDP (2005, PPP)

USD 300 trillion

2030

USD 150 trillion

2010USD 70 trillion

Food + 35%

Energy + 37%

Resources + 70%

1990

Source: OECD

Source: Global Footprint Network


Risks in not going green bottlenecks
Risks in not going green: bottlenecks

Source: OECD.

Source: World Bank


Risks in not going green shocks to food supply
Risks in not going green: shocks to food supply

Biodiversity loss(2000-2030)

Pressures on natural capital

By 2030, business as usual:

Production +35%

Land +6%

Land at risk of erosion + 17%

Water scarcity +30%

% mean species abundance loss

Source: OECD


Risks in not going green water scarcity
Risks in not going green: water scarcity

Living with risk of water scarcity (millions of people under water stress)

Source: OECD


Risks in not going green pollution and human health
Risks in not going green: pollution and human health

Premature deaths from PM10 exposure(per million inhabitants)

Source: OECD


Risks in not going green systemic risks
Risks in not going green: systemic risks

GHG emissions and climate change(per million inhabitants)

Costs of climate change(% loss, present value of consumption)

Source: OECD (see e.g. OECD (2008) “Costs of Inaction”) andUK Treasury “Stern review”


Better measurement the capital base of economies
Better measurement: the capital base of economies

Capital stock shares

Source: Arrow et al (2009) in NBER WP 16599


Better measurement for better policy choices
Better measurement for better policy choices

Cost of GHG mitigation: GDP and GDP+

Source: OECD


Growth from green perspective
Growth from green perspective

Direct cost of GHG mitigation

Structural reforms

The gap in 2050 = 4%

Source: OECD


Green fiscal reform
Green Fiscal Reform

US

Japan

Ireland

UK

Deficit improvement to stabilise debt by 2025, % of GDP

New Zealand

Greece

Netherlands

Sweden

Switzerland

Revenue from taxes on energy, CO2 and other pollutants, % of GDP, 2008. Excludes vehicle taxes


Current environmental taxes
Current environmental taxes

Tax revenue, % of GDP


Improving resource management
Improving resource management

State of catch fisheries, 2008

Revenue, 2004

Over-exploited(31%)

$78 billion

Subsidies

Fully-exploited

(53%)

$10 bn+

Economic loss

$50 billion

Operating deficit, $5 billion

Under-exploited(16%)

Source: FAO

Source: “Sunken Billions”, FAO World Bank


Removing fossil fuel subsidies
Removing fossil fuel subsidies

Income gains from unilateral subsidy removal (% change in HH income vs BAU)

10% less emissions globally from removal of fossil fuel subsidies

USD 312 billion

2009 , developing country fossil fuel consumption subsidies

?

USD 115 billion, 2009 investment in renewables

Source: Joint OECD/IEA analysis


Reframing environmental challenges
Reframing environmental challenges

Regulation and diffusion of ICT

US

Sweden

ICT investment

% of total, average 1995-2003

UK

Belgium

Canada

Greece

Germany

France

Spain

Regulation in ICT-using sectors

Average1995-2003

Source: OECD


Overcoming inertia
Overcoming inertia

Lifespan of capital investments

World GDP

USD 16 trillion

Rents embodied in fossil fuel reserves

USD 6.7 trillion

Sunk capital


Costs of moving too slow
Costs of moving too slow

Coal-fired generation capacity, IEA 450ppm scenario

300GW retired early (loss > USD 70 billion)


Response to prices
Response to prices

NOx Tax in Sweden

Source: OECD




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