What s the cattle price outlook for 2006
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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?. Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University. Cattle Situation and Outlook. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006. Million Head. Cattle & Calves Inventory. Year.

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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

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What s the cattle price outlook for 2006

What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University


Cattle situation and outlook

Cattle Situation and Outlook


U s cattle and calves inventory 1949 2006

U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

Year


U s cattle and calves inventory 1949 20061

U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

1949-58

1958-67

1967-79

1979-90

1990-04

Year


Length of u s cattle cycles

Length of U.S. Cattle Cycles

Million Head

1967-79

1958-67

2004-?

1979-90

1990-04

1949-58

Number of Years


U s cattle inventory average calf price 1949 2006

U.S. Cattle Inventory & Average Calf Price 1949-2006

Million Head

Year


U s cattle and calves inventory 97 1 million head jan 1 2006

U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory,97.1 Million Head, Jan. 1, 2006


U s cattle calves jan 1 2005 2006

U.S. Cattle & Calves, Jan. 1, 2005 & 2006


Percent change from a year ago in u s inventory jan 1 2006

Percent Change From A Year Ago In U.S. Inventory, Jan. 1, 2006


Beef replacement heifers jan 1 1985 2006

Beef Replacement Heifers Jan 1, 1985-2006


Heifers as a percent of total feedlot placements 1980 2005

Heifers As A Percent Of Total Feedlot Placements, 1980-2005


U s beef production 1975 2006

U. S. Beef Production, 1975-2006

* Estimated


U s average cattle carcass weights 1975 2005

U.S. Average Cattle Carcass Weights, 1975-2005

Factors affect carcass weights include genetics, marketing technology, corn prices, grid pricing, fed cattle prices, breakeven prices, etc.


U s cattle operations number by year 1975 2005

U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Year, 1975-2005


U s cattle operations number by size group 2005

U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Size Group, 2005

982,510 U.S. cattle operations, 2005


U s cattle operations inventory percent by size group 2005

U.S. Cattle Operations & Inventory, Percent by Size Group, 2005

Cattle Operations

Cattle Inventory


Cattle situation and outlook1

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Demand

Situation


U s per capita meat consumption retail weight basis 1976 200 6

U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U s per capita meat consumption retail weight basis 1976 200 61

U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U s beef imports and exports billion pounds 1970 0 6

U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Pounds, 1970-06


U s beef imports and exports billion dollars 1976 0 6

U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Dollars, 1976-06


Cattle situation and outlook2

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Cost of Production


U s cow calf cash expenses 1972 99

U.S. Cow-Calf Cash Expenses, 1972-99

*1990-99 estimates were based on a revised methodology.


Southeast ammonium nitrate prices 1970 0 6

Southeast Ammonium Nitrate Prices, 1970-06


Stocker gross margin alabama october april 400 750 1979 200 6

Stocker Gross Margin, Alabama, October-April, 400# -750#, 1979-2006

Gross margin is feeder sale value minus stocker purchase value.

Based on steers, med. & lrg., No. 1, Oct. to Apr., 400 to 750 pounds.


Monthly feeding cost of gain 700 to 800 lb steers in kansas

Monthly Feeding Cost of Gain700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Series


Cattle situation and outlook3

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Market Prices


Alabama feeder calf prices steers med lg 1 1990 200 6

Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006


Annual u s beef production 2000 06

Annual U. S. Beef Production, 2000-06

*Estimated


Annual u s beef production average fed beef price 2000 2006

Annual U.S. Beef Production &Average Fed Beef Price, 2000-2006


Quarterly u s beef production 2004 06

Quarterly U. S. Beef Production, 2004-06

*Estimated (2004 -> 24.5B, 2005 -> 24.7B, 2006 -> 25.9B*)


Quarterly u s beef production average fed beef price 2004 2006

Quarterly U. S. Beef Production & Average Fed Beef Price, 2004-2006

*Estimated


2006 cattle price projections cwt

2006 Cattle Price Projections, $/Cwt.

These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


Cattle situation and outlook4

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Profit Potential


U s cow calf returns over cash expenses 1972 99

U.S. Cow - Calf Returns Over Cash Expenses, 1972-99

Source: USDA


Average annual cow calf returns over cash expenses 1980 2004

Average Annual Cow-Calf ReturnsOver Cash Expenses, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Average annual stocker cattle returns over cash expenses 1980 200 6

Average Annual Stocker CattleReturns Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2006

Source: Cattle-Fax

Includes winter and summer grazing programs.


Monthly returns for finishing 700 to 800 lb steers in kansas

Monthly Returns for Finishing 700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Sales


Average annual cattle feeding returns 1980 2004

Average Annual Cattle Feeding Returns, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Cattle situation and outlook5

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Summary Remarks


Cattle situation and outlook6

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Greed,

Fear, and

Weather


Alabama feeder calf prices steers med lg 1 1990 2006

Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006


Projected profit loss by cattle industry segments during the four price phases of the cattle cycle

Projected Profit/Loss By Cattle Industry SegmentsDuring The Four Price Phases Of The Cattle Cycle*

The information in this chart is generalized based on the price phase of the cattle cycle. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


What s the cattle price outlook for 20061

What’s The Cattle Price OutlookFor 2006

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University


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