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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?. Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University. Cattle Situation and Outlook. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006. Million Head. Cattle & Calves Inventory. Year.

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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

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What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University


Cattle Situation and Outlook


U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

Year


U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006

Million Head

Cattle & Calves Inventory

1949-58

1958-67

1967-79

1979-90

1990-04

Year


Length of U.S. Cattle Cycles

Million Head

1967-79

1958-67

2004-?

1979-90

1990-04

1949-58

Number of Years


U.S. Cattle Inventory & Average Calf Price 1949-2006

Million Head

Year


U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory,97.1 Million Head, Jan. 1, 2006


U.S. Cattle & Calves, Jan. 1, 2005 & 2006


Percent Change From A Year Ago In U.S. Inventory, Jan. 1, 2006


Beef Replacement Heifers Jan 1, 1985-2006


Heifers As A Percent Of Total Feedlot Placements, 1980-2005


U. S. Beef Production, 1975-2006

* Estimated


U.S. Average Cattle Carcass Weights, 1975-2005

Factors affect carcass weights include genetics, marketing technology, corn prices, grid pricing, fed cattle prices, breakeven prices, etc.


U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Year, 1975-2005


U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Size Group, 2005

982,510 U.S. cattle operations, 2005


U.S. Cattle Operations & Inventory, Percent by Size Group, 2005

Cattle Operations

Cattle Inventory


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Demand

Situation


U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006


U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Pounds, 1970-06


U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Dollars, 1976-06


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Cost of Production


U.S. Cow-Calf Cash Expenses, 1972-99

*1990-99 estimates were based on a revised methodology.


Southeast Ammonium Nitrate Prices, 1970-06


Stocker Gross Margin, Alabama, October-April, 400# -750#, 1979-2006

Gross margin is feeder sale value minus stocker purchase value.

Based on steers, med. & lrg., No. 1, Oct. to Apr., 400 to 750 pounds.


Monthly Feeding Cost of Gain700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Series


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Market Prices


Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006


Annual U. S. Beef Production, 2000-06

*Estimated


Annual U.S. Beef Production &Average Fed Beef Price, 2000-2006


Quarterly U. S. Beef Production, 2004-06

*Estimated (2004 -> 24.5B, 2005 -> 24.7B, 2006 -> 25.9B*)


Quarterly U. S. Beef Production & Average Fed Beef Price, 2004-2006

*Estimated


2006 Cattle Price Projections, $/Cwt.

These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Profit Potential


U.S. Cow - Calf Returns Over Cash Expenses, 1972-99

Source: USDA


Average Annual Cow-Calf ReturnsOver Cash Expenses, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Average Annual Stocker CattleReturns Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2006

Source: Cattle-Fax

Includes winter and summer grazing programs.


Monthly Returns for Finishing 700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas

Source: KSU Cattle Return Sales


Average Annual Cattle Feeding Returns, 1980-2004

Source: Cattle-Fax


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Summary Remarks


Cattle Situation and Outlook

Greed,

Fear, and

Weather


Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006


Projected Profit/Loss By Cattle Industry SegmentsDuring The Four Price Phases Of The Cattle Cycle*

The information in this chart is generalized based on the price phase of the cattle cycle. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.


What’s The Cattle Price OutlookFor 2006

Dr. Walter Prevatt

Dr. Deacue Fields

Extension Economists

Auburn University


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