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Growth, Poverty and Agriculture in Africa: Linkages and Policy. Joachim von Braun Director General International Food Policy Research Institute Accra, Nov. 2007. IFPRI’s Strategic Framework. Research. Partners, stakeholders, donors, IFPRI Board and Staff. Influence on policies

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growth poverty and agriculture in africa linkages and policy

Growth, Poverty and Agriculture in Africa: Linkages and Policy

Joachim von Braun

Director General

International Food Policy Research Institute

Accra, Nov. 2007

slide2

IFPRI’s Strategic Framework

Research

Partners, stakeholders, donors, IFPRI Board and Staff

Influence on policies

Impact on poor people

Capacity strengthening

Policymakers, media, opinion leaders, and IFPRI

Policy communication

slide3

ECOWAS

AU

CORAF

ASARECA

IFPRI in Africa

IFPRI Offices

COMESA

SAKSS Nodes

NEPAD

africa on the move overview
Africa on the move: Overview
  • Growth for poverty reduction
  • Africa’s new growth and development initiatives (NEPAD and CAADP)
  • Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda
slide8

TRADE PERFORMANCE IS PICKING UP

Index of Ag. Export Volume (2000 =100)

Index of Ag. Export Value (2000 =100)

more and more countries are witnessing changes towards improved government effectiveness
More and more countries are witnessing changes towards improved ‘Government Effectiveness’

Source: 2006 Worldwide Governance Indicators, The World Bank, 2007

the world food system globalizes

Agricultural input industry

top 10: $37 bln

• Syngenta

• Bayer

• BASF

• Monsanto

• DuPont

  • Farms
  • Agricultural
  • value added:
  • $1,315 bln

450 million

>100 ha: 0.5%

< 2 ha: 85%

Food processors and traders

top 10: $363 bln

• Nestle

• Cargill

• Unilever

• ADM

• Kraft Foods

Food retailers

top 10:$777bln

• Wal-Mart

• Carrefour

• Royal Ahold

• Metro AG

• Tesco

C o n s u m e r s $4,000 billion

The world food system globalizes

Source: von Braun, 2005

prices agricultural and energy prices increasingly correlate
Prices: Agricultural and energy prices increasingly correlate

…and price variations are up

Source: IMF 2007;OECD 2005; World Bank 2007

climate change energy threats
Climate change & energy threats
  • By 2020, 75-250 million people expected to be exposed to drought (mainly in Africa)
      • Adverse effect on livelihoods & food security
      • Exacerbate malnutrition & water-related problems
      • By 2020, yields could be reduced by up to 50% (rain-fed agriculture)

Energy: biofuels - food / biomass competition

Higher food prices (scenarios: 30 to 80% + prices)

Instabilities increase (new risks for Africa’s poor)

looking beneath the dollar a day line
Looking beneath the dollar-a-day line

Medial poor

($0.50 and <$0.75):

323 mln in 2004

Ultra poor

(<$0.50):

162 mln in 2004

Subjacent poor

($0.75 and <$1):

485 mln in 2004

Source: Ahmed et al. IFPRI, 2007

the share of the poorest in ssa is growing
The share of the poorest in SSA is growing

Change in the share of poor living below .50$/day 1990-2004

Source: Ahmed et al. 2007

mdg progress ghi growth governance
MDG progress (GHI), growth & governance

Source: Wiesmann 2007.

Low gov. effectiveness is assigned to countries in the lowest quartile of Worldwide Governance Indicators.

what explains the high poverty and hunger incidences in africa
What explains the high poverty and hunger incidences in Africa?
  • Low agricultural productivity and output growth
  • Poor access to infrastructure, production inputs and rural services (e.g. health and education)
  • Loss of competitiveness in domestic, regional and world markets
  • Years of neglect of food staples and livestock sectors
  • Inadequate public and private sector investments, especially in rural areas
  • Weak enabling environment: governance, institutions, standards and regulations
  • Low capacity to deal with vulnerabilities to political instability and natural shocks (droughts, disease and pests, health, such as HIV/AIDS and Malaria)
the strategic square
The Strategic Square

ECONOMIC GROWTH; Agriculture

CONFLICT

& Governance

Innovation

& Capacity

Services & infrastructure

the comprehensive africa agriculture development programme
THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES

  • AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1
  • TARGET GOAL OF 6% SECTOR GROWTH RATE
  • INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)
  • FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT
    • Land and water management
    • Agribusiness and Infrastructure
    • Hunger and social safety nets
    • Science and Technology
  • POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY
  • EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES
  • INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY
supporting implementation of africa s growth agenda
Supporting implementation of Africa’s growth agenda
  • Analytical Agenda and M&E of CAADP
  • Piloting Country Strategy Support
  • Establishment of ReSAKSS
  • Providing Roundtable Support to Implement CADDP at the National Level
analytical agenda and m e for caadp implementation
Analytical Agenda and M&E for CAADP Implementation

Developing Analytical Agenda to Support

  • Pillar 1: Land and water management
  • Pillar 2:Regional integration and trade, market access, agribusiness, and rural infrastructure
  • Pillar 3: Food security
  • Pillar 4: Agricultural research and technology
progress against caadp 10 goal 2004
Progress against CAADP 10% goal (2004)

Source: Fan et al., IFPRI (forthcoming)

analysis support
Analysis Support
  • 1. How agricultural growth vs. non agricultural growth contributes to national development goals
  • 2. How much investment is needed to support needed agricultural growth
  • 3. How to allocate agricultural investment
  • 4. What are other complementary polices are needed to help the poor who will not benefit from agricultural growth
  • 5. How to reform the governance structure
ghana
Ghana

Source: IFPRI work in Progress

slide26

Conclusions: New partnering with Africa

  • African economic growth accelerates
  • Agriculture is essential element of growth
  • Institutional reforms for markets & infrastructure
  • Strategic support at
  • National and
  • regional level
  • Facilitating learning
  • across countries
ad