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Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2006 – 2015 4 th BTA Presentation

Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2006 – 2015 4 th BTA Presentation. Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006. Outline of Presentation. 2006 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination RMR - demand, energy and duration

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Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2006 – 2015 4 th BTA Presentation

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  1. Reliability Must-Run Analysis2006 – 20154th BTA Presentation Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006

  2. Outline of Presentation • 2006 RMR Study Process • Description of network and constraint • SIL/MLSC determination • RMR - demand, energy and duration • Economic impact of transmission constraint • Observations • Comparison of RMR Studies to FERC SIL Studies 4th BTA

  3. 2006 RMR Study Process • Transmission Provider Coordination • January 21, 2005 meeting to coordinate plan • Decision to study 2008 and 2015 • SSG-WI cases to be developed • Basic Case Development • SWAT Involvement • Approve study plan May 4, 2005 • Update on study August 23 and October 25 • Preliminary results presentation Jan 17, 2006 4th BTA

  4. RMR Economic Analysis • ABB GridView production-cost simulator • Entire WECC modeled • Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission constraints • Annual cost to serve area load determined • Study repeated ignoring local import limit • Difference is the RMR cost • Environmental impact determined for each generator using emission rates 4th BTA

  5. Phoenix Area Load 2008 4th BTA

  6. 2008 Phoenix Load Serving Capability 4th BTA

  7. 2008 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions 10042 MW 4th BTA

  8. 2008 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 56,651 GWh $0M incremental cost

  9. Phoenix Area Load 2015 4th BTA

  10. 2015 Phoenix Load Serving Capability 4th BTA

  11. 2015 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions 13289 MW 4th BTA

  12. 2015 Phoenix Area Energy Phoenix Area Total Load = 72,083 GWh $0M incremental cost

  13. Expected Phoenix Reserves 4th BTA

  14. Phoenix RMR Observations • APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 845 hours in 2008, and 548 hours in 2015. RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy. • The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW. • Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $1M in both 2008 and 2015. • Expected RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR requirements. 4th BTA

  15. 2008 Yuma Transmission System Critical Outage: Hassayampa-N.G. 500kV Limiting Element: Pilot Knob-Yucca 161kV 4th BTA

  16. 2008 Yuma Load Serving Capability 4th BTA

  17. 2008 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions 4th BTA

  18. 2008 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,892 GWh $1.3M incremental cost

  19. 2015 Yuma Transmission System Critical Outage: Cocopah-Riverside 69kV Limiting Element: Riverside-10th Street 69kV 4th BTA

  20. 2015 Yuma Load Serving Capability 4th BTA

  21. 2015 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions 4th BTA

  22. 2015 APS Yuma Energy APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,492 GWh $0M incremental cost

  23. Expected Yuma Reserves 4th BTA

  24. Yuma RMR Observations • Yuma load is expected to exceed import capability for 1,703 hours in 2008, and 553 hours in 2015. • The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 138 MW. • Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is $1.3M in 2008 and less than $1M in 2015. • Addition of 100mw of generation in Yuma in 2008 and a new 500kV line from the PV area to North Gila and a 230kV line from North Gila into the Yuma load area effectively manage RMR conditions. 4th BTA

  25. Overall RMR Observations • Benefits of local generation • Increase reliability • Local voltage support • Contingency response • Operating flexibility • Reduced losses • Lower transmission investment 4th BTA

  26. ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies GLEN CANYON TO NAVAJO CRYSTAL FOUR CORNERS MOENKOPI TO CALIF. TO MEAD / MARKETPLACE SELIGMAN COCONINO ROUND YAVAPAI VERDE FLAGSTAFF VALLEY CHOLLA CORONADO RMR Load Pockets PREACHER GAVILAN CANYON PEAK APS control area used for FERC SIL WEST WING PINNACLE PEAK PALO VERDE- LIBERTY KYRENE HASSAYAMPA RUDD SILVERKING JOJOBA BROWNING KNOX DESERT REDHAWK BASIN CASA GILA RIVER TO CALIF. GRANDE N.GILA SANTA 500KV ROSA GILA BEND TAT MOMOLI SAGUARO YUCCA LEGEND TUCSON EXISTING 500 KV LINES EXISTING 345 KV LINES EXISTING 230 KV LINES POWER PLANT EXISTING 115 KV LINES NUCLEAR POWER PLANT 115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING) 5/23/06 NORTH Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only and Transmission Planning do not reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.

  27. ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies • ACC RMR Studies • Load Pockets • Phoenix - Combined APS/SRP • Yuma • SIL • Load Pocket import capability with no generation • FERC SIL Studies • Control Area simultaneous import limit • Decrease internal control area generation • Increase external control area generation • Stop when reach reliability limit 4th BTA

  28. ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies • FERC SIL Studies (cont.) • Issues • FERC methodology not consistent with operations in Western Interconnection • TTC calculation • Oasis posting • Scaling of generation • Uniform vs. maximize imports • RMR limits for Phoenix & Yuma used in SIL Study • FERC did not have issues with Phoenix & Yuma RMR limits 4th BTA

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