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Monthly Regulation Deployment Analysis – April and May ‘12. June QMWG. Assumptions. The analysis presented here was done using 5 minute average, maximum and minimum data
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Monthly Regulation Deployment Analysis – April and May ‘12 June QMWG
Assumptions • The analysis presented here was done using 5 minute average, maximum and minimum data • For these purposes, the term “regulation deployed” refers to the total amount of regulation that was requested by ERCOT from the various QSEs and does not necessarily imply that the energy was realized • Load and wind volatility for a given interval was calculated as the difference between the average value for that interval and the average value for the previous interval • It should be noted that in the context of this analysis, “deviation” does not necessarily indicate that a Market Participant is behaving incorrectly • A WGR may “deviate” from expected during periods in which the weather is changing rapidly • A thermal generator may “deviate” from expected when shutting down as a result of the non-optimal method in use during the analysis period
Comments of Individual Days • 4/6 • Had a number of intervals of only Reg. Down in the early morning. Primary driver seems to be over-generation by Combined Cycle and Gas Steam Resources. Some larger Resources were likely starting up at this time. • 4/7 • There were a number of prolonged periods in which Reg. was deployed in a single direction. Wind ramps seems to be a contributor for the various periods during this day. In all cases, the was another Resource type that was also contributing to the deviation (Coal, Combined Cycle and Gas Steam Resources). • Also performed time error correction between 7 and 10.
Comments of Individual Days • 4/8 • During the early morning and very late in the day, Coal, Combined Cycle and Wind Resources were over-generating. Wind was picking up during these periods and some Resources may have been starting up in the morning. • During the late evening, there were Resources under-generating causing Reg. Up to be deployed, in particular Coal and Combined Cycle Resources. • 4/14 • There were a number of periods throughout the day, particularly very early and very late in the day, that Combined Cycle Resources were under-generating resulting in the deployment of Reg. Up.
Comments of Individual Days • 4/15 • Wind ramps seemed to be a main contributor to Resources deviations/Reg. deployment. Combined Cycle Resources also had a number of periods in which they were under-generating. The combination of these things resulted in Reg. Up for a number of intervals. • 4/17 • Coal and Combined Cycle Resources were over-generating in the very early morning. An up wind ramp in the evening began the deployment and Reg. Down and Coal, Combined Cycle, and Gas Steam Resources also contributed to the over-generation during various parts of the rest of the day.
Comments of Individual Days • 4/26 • Prolonged wind ramps seemed to be a main driver of the Reg. deployments in a single direction. The deviations seen for Wind Resources were also combining with Coal and Combined Cycle Resource deviation. • Time error correction during early afternoon also likely contributed. • 5/8 • Wind ramps throughout the day contributed heavily to the Reg. deployment bias, particularly for Reg. Up. Combined Cycle Resource deviations during the afternoon were also a factor in consecutive Reg. Down deployments.
Comments of Individual Days • 5/16 • Observed the pattern of being biased toward Reg. Down in the early morning and later in the day. Reg. Up was then primarily deployed in the middle of the day. Combined Cycle Resource deviation seemed to play the largest role, but also saw deviations for other Resource types. • 5/20 • A wind ramp in the morning contributed to a Reg. Up bias. Combined Cycle and Coal Resources factored in the Reg. Up bias as it continued through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon
Comments of Individual Days • 5/21 • Reg. Up bias was greatest starting at about noon and moving into the evening. Observed consistent under-generation by Wind, Coal and Combined Cycle Resources. This does not appear to have been caused by a ramp in the wind. • 5/29 • There were some major wind ramps, but these were in the opposite direction of the Reg. biases. Coal, Combined Cycle and Gas Steam Resource deviation all factored into the Reg. deployments.
