Prediction of mesothelioma incidence from asbestos consumption a comparative study
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 18

Prediction of Mesothelioma Incidence from Asbestos Consumption, A Comparative Study PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 70 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Prediction of Mesothelioma Incidence from Asbestos Consumption, A Comparative Study. Domyung Paek Seoul National University. Korean Situation. Asbestos industry started operation from 1960’s. Yet mesothelioma incidence stays low around 1-2/million, with male to female ratio of 1.6.

Download Presentation

Prediction of Mesothelioma Incidence from Asbestos Consumption, A Comparative Study

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Prediction of mesothelioma incidence from asbestos consumption a comparative study

Prediction of Mesothelioma Incidence from Asbestos Consumption, A Comparative Study

Domyung Paek

Seoul National University


Korean situation

Korean Situation

  • Asbestos industry started operation from 1960’s.

  • Yet mesothelioma incidence stays low around 1-2/million, with male to female ratio of 1.6.

  • Concerns over what to expect (any increase?), where to expect (asbestos industry locations?) and whom to expect (any specific job or task?)


Phases of change

Industrial Safety and Health Act of Korea, 1981

First Mesothelioma Case in Korea, 1994

Phases of Change

EXPANSION

PLATEAU

FALL


Korean situation1

Korean Situation

  • However, with very scanty data about mesothelioma incidence, future prediction is in murky state.

  • Need to predict future scenarios based on inter-country comparative study.


Asbestos and mesothelioma

Asbestos and Mesothelioma

  • Usually studied in occupational settings, especially of mining and manufacturing sectors.

  • However, much bigger problems are found in end-user industries such as construction and ship-building

  • Per-capita consumption of asbestos can be a fair indicator of asbestos exposure extent in end-user industries


Asbestos and mesothelioma1

Asbestos and Mesothelioma

  • The relationship can be studies in two directions

    • Spatial variation

      • Between jobs or departments

      • Between companies or industries

      • Between different countries

    • Temporal variation

      • Between different periods

      • Between countries of different phases


Asbestos and mesothelioma2

Asbestos and Mesothelioma

  • An example of spatial variation study

    • Per-capita asbestos consumption versus mesothelioma incidence of different countries


Prediction of mesothelioma incidence from asbestos consumption a comparative study

Ecological association between asbestos-related diseasesand historical asbestos consumption: an international analysisRo-Ting Lin, Ken Takahashi, Antti Karjalainen, Tsutomu Hoshuyama, Donald Wilson, Takashi Kameda, Chang-Chuan Chan, Chi-Pang Wen, Sugio Furuya, Toshiaki Higashi, Lung-Chang Chien, Megu Ohtaki

Lancet 2007; 369: 844–49


Asbestos and mesothelioma3

Asbestos and Mesothelioma

  • How about temporal variation study?

  • Usually future predictions based on age-cohort models without asbestos inputs

  • As yet, no relationship study between changes of asbestos consumption and mesothelioma incidence


Temporal variation study

Temporal Variation Study

  • Analysis of cumulative per-capita asbestos exposure over certain age period versus mesothelioma incidence after certain age of a given birth cohort

    • When and how long is the best age period of asbestos exposure to explain the changing mesothelioma incidence of different birth cohorts?

    • How strong is the dose-response of mesothelioma incidence for a given cumulative asbestos exposure?


Temporal variation study1

Temporal Variation Study

  • Studies from Japan and Netherlands


Temporal variation study2

Temporal Variation Study

  • Per-capita asbestos consumption

    • Imported asbestos/population size

  • Mesothelioma incidence risk of different birth cohorts of 5-10 year periods from 1910-1960

    • Age/period/cohort model analysis of mesothelioma incidence data of each country


Analysis

Analysis

  • Mesothelioma rate ratio for a specific cohort was calculated based on age-sex specific mesothelioma mortality in certain period, i.e. age-cohort.

  • Exposure during specific age (period) based on per-capita asbestos consumption was regressed against mesothelioma rate ratio.

    RR(cohort I) =

    ∑ ( Per-capita asbestos consumption(i period)

    * (40- age(i period))2 )


Analysis of exposure age period

Analysis of exposure age period

  • Period of from 15 – 25 years old


Analysis of temporal change

Analysis of temporal change

  • Exposures of relatively young age period (15-25 years old) showed the best fit of the data

  • After the exposure, takes about 30 years to show the elevation of the risk

  • After the exposure, takes about 50 years to reach the peak of the risk


Prediction of peak

Prediction of Peak


  • Login