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On the Horizon…

This presentation discusses the need to incorporate safety as a discrete planning factor and the use of data to promote a comprehensive approach to addressing transportation system safety. It explores tools and software applications for analyzing safety data and forecasting future safety needs. The talk also highlights the importance of data in building partnerships and reexamining the current planning approach for enhanced safety.

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On the Horizon…

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  1. 30th Annual Traffic Records Forum | July 27, 2004 On the Horizon… Future Directions in The Use of Traffic Safety Data Eric Dumbaugh Doctoral Candidate School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

  2. Traffic Fatality Rates

  3. The State of Traffic Safety… Public Expenditures on Transportation were more than $1.3 Trillion during this period

  4. Barriers to Enhancing Safety • Safety not explicitly included as a factor in the planning process • Assumed that projects are “safe and efficient” • Safety needs addressed with a limited solution set • Usually through independent infrastructure and behavioral (402) planning efforts

  5. The Use of Data in the Planning Process • Use data to incorporate safety as a discrete planning factor • Safety Level-of Service (LOSS) measures developed as part of NCHRP 8-44 • Use of data to promote a comprehensive approach to addressing transportation system safety

  6. Needs Identification and Project Selection Safety as a Planning Factor

  7. Mission Statement

  8. Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures

  9. Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures

  10. Needs Analysis and Identification

  11. Analysis Methods Current Tools: • Before-After Analysis • Hot-Spot Identification • Safety Audits

  12. Software Applications Current Software Applications • Intersection Magic (Pd’ Programming Inc ) • SafeNET (UK Department of Transport) • SafetyAnalyst (FHWA) • PEDSAFE (FHWA—UNC) • Interactive Highway Design Model (FHWA) • Pedestrian and Bicycle Analysis Tool (FHWA)

  13. Planning for the Future… Can We Forecast Future Safety Needs? • To plan for future safety needs, we must be able to predict what those needs will be • Forecasting crashes at TAZ level is feasible and promising (NCHRP 8-44) • Data can be used to predict and compare relative levels of future safety

  14. Data Requirements and Methods • Historical crash data (dependent variable) • Data on relevant predictor (independent) variables • These should be data that are readily available to transportation agencies and MPOs (e.g., road data, population data, land use data, etc.)

  15. Example… Fatal Crashes Injury Crashes

  16. A Comparative Framework Safety Level of Service (Kononov and Allery, with permission) • Quantify the level of safety using a “report card” • Communicate safety to other professionals (or elected officials) • Define safety performance as an MOE • Frame of reference for decision-making/planning

  17. Applying a Safety LOS Basic Concepts - LOSS • Safety performance functions used to determine “expected” safety • Identify LOS for safety (LOSS) based on difference between OBSERVED and EXPECTED safety at sites (intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) • Categorize locations based on LOSS • Diagnose safety problems

  18. Addressing Safety – Project Selection

  19. Coordinated Planning and Analysis • We’ve got new tools, now what do we do with them? • Planning and implementing safety solutions is segregated into “Hard” and “Soft” approaches • Software and analysis cannot provide a substitute for reasoned, interdisciplinary consideration of needs and opportunities

  20. Barriers to Enhancing Safety Safety is often inadequately addressed solely through design “improvements”

  21. Where Are Safety Gains Really Coming From? “Changes in highway infrastructure… have not reduced traffic fatalities and injuriesand have even had the effect of increasing total fatalities and injuries… other factors, primarily changes in the demographic age mix of the population, increased seatbelt usage, and improvements in medical technology are responsible for the downward trend in total fatal accidents.” Noland, R., “Traffic Fatalities and Injuries: Are Reductions the Result of ‘Improvements’ in Highway Design Standards?” Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Conference Proceedings CD-ROM, Washington DC (2001).

  22. Coordinated Planning and Analysis Brevard County MPO Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Program

  23. How Do We Use Data to Build Partnerships? • Leverage role as data providers to build new partnerships • Planning agencies need expertise on the availability, use, analysis and interpretation of safety-related data • Providing data provides new inroads to the consideration of a holistic approach to transportation safety

  24. Future Needs… • There is a clear need to re-examine the current planning approach: • Fuller treatment of safety as an integral part of the planning process • Design guidance that is based on a substantive understanding of safety, rather than solely on operational performance • Data is ESSENTIAL for the success of these efforts!

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