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Water A griculture & Sustainability View from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region

Water A griculture & Sustainability View from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region Jim Holway , Ph.D., AICP Director, Joint Venture Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Shaping the Future of the West. Water and …. Growth Energy Climate Agriculture…. Is this the source ?

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Water A griculture & Sustainability View from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region

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  1. Water Agriculture & Sustainability View from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region Jim Holway, Ph.D., AICP Director, Joint Venture Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Shaping the Future of the West

  2. Water and ….. • Growth • Energy • Climate • Agriculture…. Is this the source ? • Environment ….. Is anything left ? Driving Forces

  3. Southwest States - Growth

  4. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand 2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet 15.2 million people 2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet 12.9 million people Uncertain 2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people Possibly Available 2030 = 2.0 million af 8.5 million people Likely Available Currently Secured

  5. Average Gallons Needed per one MWhrArizona-Based Facilities (2002-2006) M.J. Pasqualetti, School of Geographical Sciences, ASU

  6. Significant Cultural Events

  7. Who Uses The Water

  8. Historic & Projected Demands – Phoenix AMA Total Agriculture Municipal Industrial Indian

  9. Pinal County Listening Session • Proximity to urban centers could be an opportunity • Concerns • urbanization / farmland preservation • Impact of development on water supplies • Input prices (energy, fertilizers) • Labor management with new crops • Do the kids want to farm? • Questions for future • Maintaining feed supplies for dairies • How to manage transition from field to specialty crops • Operating on leased (as opposed to owned) land • Labor-saving technology

  10. Envisioning Sustainable MegaRegionAgriculture • Define a role for agriculture in “MegaRegion • Comprehensive land use planning should consider Ag preservation & suitability • Agriculture as land & water (drought) buffer • Mechanisms • Right to Farm protections • Substitution of alternative Ag lands • TDRs & easements • Tax policy - property & inheritance

  11. Source: EDAW

  12. Thank You I look forward to learning from your efforts ! Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Shaping the Future of the West

  13. City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use

  14. City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use

  15. SUSTAINABILITY S = f( P * R * L * T * G + A) (state variables & change trajectories) • P: Population • R: Resource Base (including Climate) • L: Lifestyle (Consumption Patterns) • T: Technology for Managing Resources • G: Governance • A: Adaptation (Resilience)

  16. Thresholds & Tipping Points • Reaching / Exceeding Limits? • reallocations & new supplies, optimizing system • Energy required - costs • Future - differ from past? • climate … economy … federal policy • Public / Market Choices – water for what? • growth … lifestyle … ecosystems … industry • Major Infrastructure Investments • Conjunctive Management & Regional Coordination • Democratize Water Management

  17. Principles for Managing Urban Water Environments • Everything is Connected ecosystem level – watersheds – adaptive mgmt • People are part of the Ecosystem public vision – aesthetic & ecological functions • Institutions Mediate & Shape Relationships scale – scope – adaptable authorities • Change is Inevitable understand drivers - anticipate & manage • Water Mgmt Requires Interdisciplinary Approach Water Environment of Cites. Springer 2009

  18. Water, Sustainability & Policy A Few Big Questions • How can we build resiliency & management capacity into legal frameworks & institutions • Do we have the right balance between private rights and public welfare • What is the right mix of market & non-market mechanisms • How to best incorporate the environment, ecosystem health and 3rd party impacts • Do we need more democracy, more collaboration … … or less

  19. Harto, Meyers & Williams: School of Sustainability, ASU

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