Reefs as Habitats or Habitats for Reefs: Global-Scale Coral Reef Biogeography. Robert W. Buddemeier Casey J. McLaughlin Peder Sandhei Kansas Geological Survey and Department of Geography, University of Kansas. Acknowledgements:
Reefs as Habitats or Habitats for Reefs:Global-Scale Coral Reef Biogeography
Robert W. Buddemeier
Casey J. McLaughlin
Kansas Geological Survey and Department
of Geography, University of Kansas
J. A. Kleypas, J.-P. Gattuso, B. A. Maxwell, D. G. Fautin, J. D. Bartley
NSF OCE-00-03970, ‘Biogeoinformatics of the Hexacorallia;’
National Coral Reef Insititute; IGBP-LOICZ; UNEP-GEF
Key Issues ---
Conceptual approach: Consider that reefs and communities have – and require – habitats or niches that overlap with but are not identical to the habitats or niches that these reefs and communities provide for the constituent organisms --- which are in most cases not unique to ‘reefs’ (sensu stricto).
Preview of Coming Attractions ----
Coral Reefs 21(1), 2002 – “Large-scale dynamics” issue
Changes in land-based stress are closely related to human population and land-use
Geospatial clustering provides classifications of coastal zone population density and related variables – first-order proxies for ‘onshore reef’ anthropogenic stresses
The inverse question – where might we find relatively pristine coastal environments for ‘baseline’ samples or possible preservation?
Too stringent? Too depressing?
Relax the standards – to population density <100/km2 and <10% cropland
Most of Asia, all of Florida is still “gone” –
How do land-based stresses compare to and interact with more generalizable oceanic/climatic stresses?
Global surface temperature, observed and projected from IPCC scenarios
The maximum temperature excursions of the late 1990s could be the mean conditions by 2010, and the lower limit of variation by 2020 – nearshore, short-term variability is likely to be higher than the global and oceanic.
Aragonite saturation state – “Holocene normal,’ with arbitrary but informed estimates of how much reef calcifiers care -- greener is better
Oceanic saturation states now – still green, but not as dark (nearshore values are likely to be different, probably lower)
With a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration, wide areas remain ‘tolerable,’ few ‘good’ – how do these overlay with the human-derived near-shore stresses and other climatic factors?
2065 Aragonite saturation: Green = good, tan = marginal
2040-2060 mean ann. SST, w/present (gray line) and future (pink) 29o contour
density, ag land use
-- present values
In the Indo-West Pacific -- Australia, East Africa/Red Sea, and islands in the subequatorial southern hemisphere tropics look like the best bets from a pessimistic ‘triage’ viewpoint
What science-related questions and conclusions can we develop to tell us how justified the pessimism is?
Conclusions -- Observations
Editorial Conclusions – Needs and Opportunities