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UNIPCC Assessment Report #5 “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” plus US Corn Yield Deviation from Trend Vs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO). with Podcast Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014.

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with Podcast Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014

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UNIPCC Assessment Report #5“Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability”plus US Corn Yield Deviation from TrendVs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)

with Podcast

Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014


UNIPCC admits, “The innate behavior of the climate system imposes limits on the ability to predict its evolution.” (3-31-14)


UN models

Reality

Baseline for models 1986-2005

Recent years show essentially no forecasting skill has been demonstrated in UNIPCC climate models.

From “Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change,” McNider and Christy, WSJ 2/19/14. (See also, “Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm,” Matt Ridley, 3/27/14, and “Second Climate Thoughts,” 4-6-14,


But the UNIPCC Assessment Report #5 (3-31-14) sticks with models, and recommends “ambitious mitigation” between $70 and $100 billion/yr.

RCP8.5 is projected warming under continued high emissions, with 39 models based on observed temperature for 1986-2005.

RCP2.6 is projected warming under ambitious mitigation, with 32 models based on observed temperature for 1986-2005.

Adaptation funding needs to be “orders of magnitude greater than current investment levels, particularly in developing countries.”


Tropical yields will decline if the temperature rises by 2°C (which is all but inevitable) and offsetting benefits in temperate zones will be smaller than once thought.

Rain-fed crops do respond to higher levels of carbon dioxide, but the effect is counteracted by rising temperatures.

Plants like long growing seasons but many (especially maize) hate temperature spikes: even one day above 35°C [95°F] at the wrong time of their life cycles can damage them. [Exaggeration!]

Rates of photosynthesis in maize, sorghum and sugarcanedo not respond to changes in CO2 concentrations in the way that C3 cereals, such as wheat and rice, do, so the effect of more carbon dioxide on crops is patchy. [Disagrees with leading CO2 expert Craig Idso.]

UNIPCC AR% sounds the alarm about “the breakdown of food systems,” linked to warming:


FAO Trended

(1) Observed history FAO

(3) Calculated as (1) - (2)

(2) Calculated from CO2 research, and trended

Craig R. Idso, “The Positive Externalities of CO2,” Oct-2013


Wheat yields are (now) being pushed down by 2% a decade compared with what would have happened without climate change; maize is down by 1% a decade; rice and soyabeans are unaffected.

Over time, this could worsen.

Roughly half of studies of likely cereal yields over the next ten years forecast an increase, whereas the other half forecast a decline.

Forecasts for the 2030s are even more sobering: twice as many predict a fall as a rise.”

UNIPCC AR5 continues:


And yet, “So far, so good.” 50 years of official USDA world crop yield data shows no impact of climate change.


Same is true for oilseeds:

50 years of official USDA world crop yield data shows no impact of climate change!


Back to REALITY: Current US policies are (legally!) based on

the UNIPCC arguments for human-caused Global Warming

Obama SOTUS, 2014, “Debate is settled. Climate change is a fact.”

US interagency SCC 2013

EPA Endangerment Finding 2009

UN models

SCOTUS Mass vs EPA 2007

Reality

From “Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change,” McNider and Christy, WSJ 2/19/14. (See also, “Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm,” Matt Ridley, 3/27/14)


The “innate behavior” of El Nino/La Nina must be part of “warming”!

The1986-2005 period, used by UNIPCC as the base for its climate models, had numerous strong (hot) El Nino events.


US Corn Yield Deviation from TrendVs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)

Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014

Super

El Nino of 1997-98

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


“With an El Nino developing later this year, there is the possibility of a new record high global temperature if the El Nino is sufficiently strong enough. I personally don’t think this is going to happen, because we are in the negative phase of the PDO (which favors stronger La Nina and weaker El Nino).” —Roy Spencer, 4-8-14

NOAA

April 7, 2014:

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting in April-June (AMJ) 2014

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/


US Corn Yield Deviation from TrendVs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)

SUMMARY OF CORRELATIONS

El Nino Results in past 63 Years (page3): There have been 20 El Nino Years, of which 9 correlated with “good years” for corn yield, 3 with “bad years,” and 8 with “normal years.” But nine very “good years” also occurred with no El Nino, that is with the ENSO index in neutral. (Note “Super El Nino of 97-98 had no correlation with good/bad US corn yield.)

La Nina Results in past 63 Years (Page 4): There have been 21 La Nina Years, of which 8 correlated with “bad years” for yield, 1 with a “good year,” and 13 with “normal years.”

Point. Forecasting the results for the coming crop season (or even “leaning” to good or bad) on the basis of El Nino alone is well below 50%. Each year is climatologically unique—any year can do what it wants! For instance the worst “bad year” in recent memory, 2012, occurred in neutral ENSO conditions! The super “good year” of 1979 also occurred with ENSO in neutral!


To other “Amateur Climatologists: It’s gotten very easy to get the weather and climate data you need!

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php


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