UNIPCC Assessment Report #5 “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” plus US Corn Yield Deviation from Trend Vs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO). with Podcast Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014.
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UNIPCC Assessment Report #5“Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability”plus US Corn Yield Deviation from TrendVs. El Nino/La Nina (ENSO)
Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014
UNIPCC admits, “The innate behavior of the climate system imposes limits on the ability to predict its evolution.” (3-31-14)
Baseline for models 1986-2005
Recent years show essentially no forecasting skill has been demonstrated in UNIPCC climate models.
From “Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change,” McNider and Christy, WSJ 2/19/14. (See also, “Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm,” Matt Ridley, 3/27/14, and “Second Climate Thoughts,” 4-6-14,
But the UNIPCC Assessment Report #5 (3-31-14) sticks with models, and recommends “ambitious mitigation” between $70 and $100 billion/yr.
RCP8.5 is projected warming under continued high emissions, with 39 models based on observed temperature for 1986-2005.
RCP2.6 is projected warming under ambitious mitigation, with 32 models based on observed temperature for 1986-2005.
Adaptation funding needs to be “orders of magnitude greater than current investment levels, particularly in developing countries.”
Rain-fed crops do respond to higher levels of carbon dioxide, but the effect is counteracted by rising temperatures.
Plants like long growing seasons but many (especially maize) hate temperature spikes: even one day above 35°C [95°F] at the wrong time of their life cycles can damage them. [Exaggeration!]
Rates of photosynthesis in maize, sorghum and sugarcanedo not respond to changes in CO2 concentrations in the way that C3 cereals, such as wheat and rice, do, so the effect of more carbon dioxide on crops is patchy. [Disagrees with leading CO2 expert Craig Idso.]
UNIPCC AR% sounds the alarm about “the breakdown of food systems,” linked to warming:
(1) Observed history FAO
(3) Calculated as (1) - (2)
(2) Calculated from CO2 research, and trended
Craig R. Idso, “The Positive Externalities of CO2,” Oct-2013
Over time, this could worsen.
Roughly half of studies of likely cereal yields over the next ten years forecast an increase, whereas the other half forecast a decline.
Forecasts for the 2030s are even more sobering: twice as many predict a fall as a rise.”
UNIPCC AR5 continues:
And yet, “So far, so good.” 50 years of official USDA world crop yield data shows no impact of climate change.
50 years of official USDA world crop yield data shows no impact of climate change!
the UNIPCC arguments for human-caused Global Warming
Obama SOTUS, 2014, “Debate is settled. Climate change is a fact.”
US interagency SCC 2013
EPA Endangerment Finding 2009
SCOTUS Mass vs EPA 2007
From “Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change,” McNider and Christy, WSJ 2/19/14. (See also, “Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm,” Matt Ridley, 3/27/14)
The1986-2005 period, used by UNIPCC as the base for its climate models, had numerous strong (hot) El Nino events.
Bill Hudson • PRX • April 7, 2014
El Nino of 1997-98
“With an El Nino developing later this year, there is the possibility of a new record high global temperature if the El Nino is sufficiently strong enough. I personally don’t think this is going to happen, because we are in the negative phase of the PDO (which favors stronger La Nina and weaker El Nino).” —Roy Spencer, 4-8-14
April 7, 2014:
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting in April-June (AMJ) 2014
SUMMARY OF CORRELATIONS
El Nino Results in past 63 Years (page3): There have been 20 El Nino Years, of which 9 correlated with “good years” for corn yield, 3 with “bad years,” and 8 with “normal years.” But nine very “good years” also occurred with no El Nino, that is with the ENSO index in neutral. (Note “Super El Nino of 97-98 had no correlation with good/bad US corn yield.)
La Nina Results in past 63 Years (Page 4): There have been 21 La Nina Years, of which 8 correlated with “bad years” for yield, 1 with a “good year,” and 13 with “normal years.”
Point. Forecasting the results for the coming crop season (or even “leaning” to good or bad) on the basis of El Nino alone is well below 50%. Each year is climatologically unique—any year can do what it wants! For instance the worst “bad year” in recent memory, 2012, occurred in neutral ENSO conditions! The super “good year” of 1979 also occurred with ENSO in neutral!
To other “Amateur Climatologists: It’s gotten very easy to get the weather and climate data you need!