Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update. Jenell Katheiser Doug Murray. Topics of Discussion. Scenario Results Drought S5C BAU with PTC Environmental with DR/EE Generation Diversity Scenario Summary Lessons Learned Future Considerations.
Wind Buildout for BAU New Wind Shapes vs BAU with PTC
The PTC is a big driver in the economics of wind resources
Non-coincidence peak load forecast comparison
As increasing amounts of wind, solar and geothermal prove to be economical, the amount of energy provided by renewables increased from 13% in the BAU w/ Retirements scenario to 63% in the Environmental Scenario.
Wind Buildout vs Natural Gas Price: BAU with and without PTC
The PTC lowers the break even price of natural gas for wind to become economic
Total RenewablesBuildoutvs Reserve Margin in 2032
The Environmental with DR/EE scenario did not result in load growth and was the only scenario to have a positive reserve margin in 2032.
Number of Scarcity Hours vs Reserve Margin for 2032
Environmental with DR/EE