The Risk Management component of Continuous Improvement

2. The Risk Management component ofContinuous Improvement Oregon IIMT Meeting May, 2010

3. Three Levels of Risk Management • Strategic • 2. Deliberate • 3. Time Critical

4. Strategic Risk Assessment Overview

5. The SRA Process • Identifies threats to values at risk • Evaluates alternative prospects • Anchors response on firefighter exposure • Emphasis on tradeoffs between exposure and protection objectives • Explicitly considers safety • Incorporates exposure assessment directly into strategy => “Exposure Budget”

6. Prospect One (Point Protection – Checking) Details

7. Resource Consequences, Effects Mitigation and at Risk Probability and Severity Action Trigger

8. Resource # People # Units Phase 1/2 P1 Exposure P2 Exposure Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x (Length of Prospect Phase). The total exposure (Phases 1 and 2 combined) for the entire 30-day Prospect is 72,964 person hours.

9. Prospect Details – Prospect 2 (Full Perimeter Control)

10. Resources Required and Exposure Assessment Prospect Two (Full Perimeter Control) Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x (Length of Prospect Phase). The total exposure for the entire 21-day Prospect is 377,202 person hours.

11. The Risk Based Decision • Course of action • Least exposure prospect that meets reasonable objectives of the AA • Worth exposing firefighters • Reasonably safe • AA committed to stay within the exposure budget

12. Risk Assessment on the Incident

13. Three Levels of Risk Management • Strategic • 2. Deliberate • 3. Time Critical

15. Definitions HAZARD = a condition that exists with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of equipment or property; or mission degradation.

17. Definitions • RISK = the probabilityand severity of loss linked to hazards. • The probability of an undesirable outcome. • RISK ASSESSMENT = the identification and assessment of hazards. • The first two steps of the risk management process.

19. Definitions • RISK MANAGEMENT = The process of identifying, assessing and controlling risks arising from operational factors and making decisions that balance risk exposure with mission benefits.

20. THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

21. Risk Management Process Feedback and record the hazard identification and assessment and risk mitigation An action is being considered Identify hazards/consequences and assess risks Define the level of probability Define the level of severity Define the level of risk Is the risk level acceptable? Take action and continue the operation YES NO Take action and continue the operation Can the risk be eliminated? YES NO Can the risk be mitigated? YES Take action and continue the operation Cancel the operation YES Can the residual risk be accepted? (if any) NO ICAO Safety Management Systems (SMS) Course

22. What can we do with risk? • Mitigate (reduce) • Transfer(give it to somebody else) • Avoid (“No-Go” decision) • Accept (but do so deliberately)

24. Alternative 215A

25. Severity Severity Likelihood/Probability

26. Defining Probability and Severity Levels

27. Residual Risk The level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected.

28. MISSION ANALYSIS • Risk is analyzed at the mission level. • Mission is directly related to an incident objective. • Provides a means of identifying decision points. • Is a record of completed actions.

29. MISSION ANALYSIS

30. MISSION ANALYSIS

31. Time Critical • Risk assessments done “on the fly” by firefighters at the ground level. • Deference to expertise. • Make risk decisions at the appropriate level. • Doctrinal approach.

32. Risk management is more than just an analytical process, it is a different way of communicating.

33. Risk sharing relationship with agency administrator

34. What is the risk vs. the gain? Is the risk worth the amount of exposure?

35. DISCUSSION