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Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs. Stockpile Planning for the Future Mr. Steve Henry Deputy Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Matters. PORTSMOUTH. FERNALD. Stockpile Planning: The Historical Approach.

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Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs

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Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense

Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs

Stockpile Planning for the FutureMr. Steve HenryDeputy Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Matters


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PORTSMOUTH

FERNALD

Stockpile Planning:The Historical Approach

  • Largely target based

  • Heavy reliance on a large stockpile to manage geo-political and technical risk

  • Infrastructure with little capability beyond maintaining legacy weapons

Legacy stockpile

Infrastructure Cost

This approach continues the Cold War mentality of “strength in numbers”, rather than a focus on overall capabilities


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Clear Objectives Exist for the Future Nuclear Weapons Stockpile

“I am committed to achieving a credible deterrent with the lowest-possible number of nuclear weapons consistent with our national security needs…”

- Pres. Bush May 2001

  • Reliable, secure, and safe stockpile

  • Responsive nuclear weapon infrastructure

  • Sustain confidence for the long term

  • Continue moratorium on nuclear testing

The current approach for the stockpile and infrastructure does not adequately provide a path forward that meets the President’s guidance

A New Approach is Needed to Meet DoD’s Future Stockpile Needs


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Objectives of a New Approach

  • Initiate an immediate change from the current path of maintaining complex Cold War-era designs indefinitely

  • Provide flexibility in the stockpile and ability to adapt to changing needs

  • Sustain critical skills to design, certify, and produce nuclear warheads

  • Free-up capacity and resources to enable transformation to a responsive, sustainable infrastructure

Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) Concepts May Provide a Way to Achieve These Objectives


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The New Approach and Potential Implementation

  • If RRW proves feasible, we should have a way to enable a broad change in our nuclear enterprise

    • Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons

    • Demonstrate our ability to design and certify without nuclear testing

    • Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear infrastructure

    • Potential to disassemble a larger number of retired weapons

Current Plan

New Approach

Stockpile

Stockpile

Wxx Life Extension (LEP)

Wxx

RRWs

Wxx

Life Extension


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Our New Approach Must Meet National Security Objectives

  • Supports defense policy goals of:

    • Assuring allies and friends of US mutual security commitments

    • Dissuading potential aggressors from planning/acquiring WMD

    • Deterring potential aggressors from using WMD

    • Defending against or defeating an aggressor

  • Enables stockpile reductions

  • Consistent with U.S. non-proliferation initiatives


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It Must Also Preserve Essential National Capability

  • Sustains and exercises national capability for nuclear warhead design, engineering, and production skills

  • Fosters scientific and technical capabilities to reduce technical surprise

  • Enables an infrastructure that is responsive to changing national security needs

  • Facilitates nuclear incident/emergency response capabilities


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Managing Risk: Today vs. 2030+

  • Legacy infrastructure with limited capability

  • Heavy reliance on hedge stockpile for risk management

Today

2030+

  • Responsive and efficient infrastructure with enhanced capability

  • Reduced reliance on hedge stockpile for risk management

We need a more balanced approach between stockpile size and infrastructure responsiveness


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Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Transformation

TODAY (2005)

2010

2020

2030+

LONG TERM VISION

DoD Weapons

  • Weapon systems designed and fielded during Cold War

    Warheads (8-9 types)

  • All Cold War-era legacy warheads

  • Plan to refurbish indefinitely

    Infrastructure

  • Make components to refurbish warheads

  • Some components expensive, difficult to manufacture

    Risk Management

  • High reliance on back-up warheads

Warheads

  • All non-refurbished legacy warheads retired

  • 2-4 types of RRWs

    Responsive Infrastructure

  • Streamlined

  • Steady-state production of warheads for deployment

    Risk Management

  • Low reliance on non-deployed back-up warheads

  • High reliance on responsive infrastructure

TRANSFORM:

Target Based

To

Enterprise Based Deterrent


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Nuclear Weapons Stockpile and Infrastructure Transformation

TODAY (2005)

2010

2020

2030+

LONG TERM VISION

DoD Weapons

  • Weapon systems designed and fielded during Cold War

    Warheads (8-9 types)

  • All Cold War-era legacy warheads

  • Plan to refurbish indefinitely

    Infrastructure

  • Make components to refurbish warheads

  • Some components expensive, difficult to manufacture

    Risk Management

  • High reliance on back-up warheads

  • Develop and field RRW warheads

  • Develop low-cost warhead back-up options

  • Continue life extension refurbishments; evaluate quantity needed

  • Conduct stockpile transformation studies

  • Evaluate tradeoffs of an all-RRW stockpile versus mixed stockpile

  • Re-scope warhead life extension needs

  • Develop warheads for next-generation delivery systems

  • Complete stockpile transformation plans

Warheads

  • All non-refurbished legacy warheads retired

  • 2-4 types of RRWs

    Responsive Infrastructure

  • Streamlined

  • Steady-state production of warheads for deployment

    Risk Management

  • Low reliance on non-deployed back-up warheads

  • High reliance on responsive infrastructure


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Summary

  • The current nuclear enterprise is unsustainable in the long term

  • If RRW proves feasible, we could have a way to enable a broad change in our nuclear enterprise

    • Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons

    • Demonstrate our confidence to manufacture and certify without nuclear testing

    • Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear infrastructure

    • Potential to disassemble a larger number of retired weapons

  • We need to work with the NNSA and Congress on stockpile and infrastructure transformation

RRW Can Enable Transformation of the Stockpile and Infrastructure


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