CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE
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CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 4 th Quarter 2012. An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130 San Antonio, TX 78216 210.547.3450 www.harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

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An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130

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An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE

4th Quarter 2012

An Independent Registered Investment Advisor

9601 McAllister Freeway, Suite 1130

San Antonio, TX 78216

210.547.3450

www.harrismartinfinancial.com

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC

Stephanie Harris, CFPKyle Martin, CFP

[email protected]@harrismartinfinancial.com


Outlook

OUTLOOK

  • Investor Behavior

    • Despite rising risks and low potential returns, investors continue to be misallocated.

  • US Equities

    • US Equities look attractive, even after assessing risks.

  • Global Economy

    • The global economy remains troubled, but not in crisis and international valuations remain attractive.

  • Way Forward

    • Investors need a more balanced approach to generating income in an age of stretched valuations.


Investor behavior

Investor Behavior


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Its been a very good year for risk assets so far


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

However, investors continue to hoard cash


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

and mutual fund flows are still heavily from stocks to bonds.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

The venerable Treasury market just turned 31


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

leaving many fixed income investors vulnerable.


Us equities

US Equities


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

All the style boxes look cheap, with large cap growth the cheapest.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

The stock market has rallied to close-to-previous-peak levels, but relative valuations look much more attractive now


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

After the biggest bear market in modern history, this bull still looks relatively young.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Stronger confidence could push stocks (and rates) higher.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Cyclical sectors point to sluggish growth but no recession.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Fiscal cliff still looks dangerous, but unlikely.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Markets have risen under both parties.


Global economy

Global Economy


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

European fiscal policy still isnt working


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

but the ECB has protected the sovereign debt market.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

The actions of the ECB have succeeded in calming fears about sovereign debt and the banking system


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

European stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.


Way forward

Way Forward


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

In the age of debt, investors need to move back to balanced.


Backup charts

Backup Charts


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Gold


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Historical Returns by Holding Period


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Index Definitions


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Index Definitions


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Definitions, Risks, & Disclosures

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments, referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Stephanie Harris and Kyle Martin and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. All charts included above are for illustrative purposes only.


An independent registered investment advisor 9601 mcallister freeway suite 1130

Stephanie A. Harris, CFP

210.547.3450

[email protected]

Kyle Martin, CFP

210.547.3450

[email protected]

Securities offered through

Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC


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