CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 4 th Quarter 2012. An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130 San Antonio, TX 78216 210.547.3450 www.harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE
4th Quarter 2012
An Independent Registered Investment Advisor
9601 McAllister Freeway, Suite 1130
San Antonio, TX 78216
Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC
Stephanie Harris, CFPKyle Martin, CFP
Its been a very good year for risk assets so far
However, investors continue to hoard cash
and mutual fund flows are still heavily from stocks to bonds.
The venerable Treasury market just turned 31
leaving many fixed income investors vulnerable.
All the style boxes look cheap, with large cap growth the cheapest.
The stock market has rallied to close-to-previous-peak levels, but relative valuations look much more attractive now
After the biggest bear market in modern history, this bull still looks relatively young.
Stronger confidence could push stocks (and rates) higher.
Cyclical sectors point to sluggish growth but no recession.
Fiscal cliff still looks dangerous, but unlikely.
Markets have risen under both parties.
European fiscal policy still isnt working
but the ECB has protected the sovereign debt market.
The actions of the ECB have succeeded in calming fears about sovereign debt and the banking system
European stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.
In the age of debt, investors need to move back to balanced.
Historical Returns by Holding Period
Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900
Definitions, Risks, & Disclosures
The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments, referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Stephanie Harris and Kyle Martin and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. All charts included above are for illustrative purposes only.
Stephanie A. Harris, CFP
Kyle Martin, CFP
Securities offered through
Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC