CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE
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CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 4 th Quarter 2012. An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130 San Antonio, TX 78216 210.547.3450 www.harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

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An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130

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CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE

4th Quarter 2012

An Independent Registered Investment Advisor

9601 McAllister Freeway, Suite 1130

San Antonio, TX 78216

210.547.3450

www.harrismartinfinancial.com

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC

Stephanie Harris, CFPKyle Martin, CFP

[email protected]@harrismartinfinancial.com


OUTLOOK

  • Investor Behavior

    • Despite rising risks and low potential returns, investors continue to be misallocated.

  • US Equities

    • US Equities look attractive, even after assessing risks.

  • Global Economy

    • The global economy remains troubled, but not in crisis and international valuations remain attractive.

  • Way Forward

    • Investors need a more balanced approach to generating income in an age of stretched valuations.


Investor Behavior


Its been a very good year for risk assets so far


However, investors continue to hoard cash


and mutual fund flows are still heavily from stocks to bonds.


The venerable Treasury market just turned 31


leaving many fixed income investors vulnerable.


US Equities


All the style boxes look cheap, with large cap growth the cheapest.


The stock market has rallied to close-to-previous-peak levels, but relative valuations look much more attractive now


After the biggest bear market in modern history, this bull still looks relatively young.


Stronger confidence could push stocks (and rates) higher.


Cyclical sectors point to sluggish growth but no recession.


Fiscal cliff still looks dangerous, but unlikely.


Markets have risen under both parties.


Global Economy


European fiscal policy still isnt working


but the ECB has protected the sovereign debt market.


The actions of the ECB have succeeded in calming fears about sovereign debt and the banking system


European stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.


Way Forward


In the age of debt, investors need to move back to balanced.


Backup Charts


Gold


Historical Returns by Holding Period


Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines


The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900


Index Definitions


Index Definitions


Definitions, Risks, & Disclosures

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments, referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Stephanie Harris and Kyle Martin and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. All charts included above are for illustrative purposes only.


Stephanie A. Harris, CFP

210.547.3450

[email protected]

Kyle Martin, CFP

210.547.3450

[email protected]

Securities offered through

Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC


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