Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios
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Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios. Emily McKenzie. Montserrat. Valuation: Centre Hills, Montserrat. LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific. What change in decision-making do you seek? Who can make that change happen? When will decisions be made?

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Lesson 1 establish goals be specific
LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific

  • What change in decision-making do you seek?

  • Who can make that change happen?

  • When will decisions be made?

  • What info do they need / seek?

  • How can ES info help?


Lesson 2 prioritize process
LESSON # 2: Prioritize process

  • Credible

  • Legitimate (unbiased, inclusive)

  • Salient (relevant, timely)


Lesson 3 make outputs relevant
LESSON # 3: Make outputs relevant

  • Relevant ecosystem services

  • Suitable outputs (biophysical, econ)

  • Appropriate scale

  • Scenarios

  • Post-processing analyses


Activity
Activity

  • How can you enhance credibility, salience and legitimacy of InVEST results?

  • Which ecosystem services are most relevant?

  • Which ecosystem service outputs are suitable?

  • What scale is most appropriate?

  • What scenarios would you compare?



Valuation study in bermuda

Before

Valuation study in Bermuda

After


Scenarios can hone your message
Scenarios can hone your message

  • Bermuda’s reefs worth

    • $722 million p.a.

    • 10-17% of GDP

But what would be costs and benefits of new shipping channels?


Why use scenarios
Why use scenarios?

  • Identify tradeoffs

  • Consider new policies

  • ‘Future-proof’ policies

  • Air conflicts, develop consensus


NatCap Scenario Tools

  • Scenario Guidance

  • Scenario Case Studies

  • InSEAM

  • Scenario Generator

  • InVEST linked to IDRISI Land Change Modeler


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • Be specific about goals

  • Recognize importance of process

  • Make sure InVEST outputs are relevant

  • Use scenarios


www.naturalcapitalproject.org/policy_tools

  • Screening Criteria

  • InVEST in Practice

  • Scenario Tools



Select sites carefully
Select sites carefully

  • Will it deliver service & conservation?

  • Are conditions supportive?

Strong opportunity

An assessment framework

High risk

Information gap


InVEST Contribution

Policy Step

1. Secure Government or Institutional Support

Demonstrate potential economic efficiencies and social benefits of PWS

1. Show current ES status

2. Identify where to distribute payments

3. Predict how ES will change under PWS

4. Prioritize significant land management alternatives

2. Conduct Biophysical Assessment

3. Develop Governance

4. Identify Service Buyers

Identify where ES are delivered

1. Identify geographic areas of current ES provision

2. Identify geographic areas of potential ES provision

3. Assess ES returns of management options

5. Identify Service Providers

6. Set Prices or Payments

Provide ES values as base for negotiation

7. Institutional Assessment

8. Assess and Develop Capacity

Inform ES target levels

9. Define Success

10. Determine Contract and Payment Types

Inform design of monitoring program

11. Monitoring and Evaluation

1. Assess potential ES returns of alternative

management plans

2. Identify where to focus new PWS programs

12. Adapt and Scale Up



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