PPAI

1. PPAI • Decadal Prediction/Predictability/Variability • Reviewed the WGCM/WGSIP Decadal Prediction Experiment • Reviewed/Revised Decadal WG Prospectus • Reviewed Natural Resources WG • Recommended Workshop • Reviewed Integrated Earth System Analysis WG • Reviewed Status of CPAPP • Developed Strategy for Tropical Biases WG • Reviewed/Revised PPAI Goals • Panel Membership

2. 1. Panels will refine and document a set of best practices for their respective research activities; assess how well the community is following them; and discuss how best to engage the target audiences to inform them about these recommendations and how they could be implemented. *Contribution to WCRP seasonal prediction best practices statement *Contribution to seamless prediction paper *Best practices in regional predictions: CINR prospectus *Best practices in decadal prediction: metrics suggested to decadal working group as a blueprint for best practices.

3. Make plans to provide feedback to the US research agencies on the overall research investment in decadal variability and predictability and drought, noting strengths as well as specific gaps where additional research is needed. As part of this feedback, recommend new inter-agency research activities that are modest in cost and would address one or more of the research gaps. *Drought working group participation *Input on Plan for NRC seasonal predictability assessment *Design of decadal prediction experiments *Feedback to decadal working group prospectus *Inform agenda of Climate Research Committee meeting on Decadal Prediction (1/2 or full day forum, December 2008) *Scientific concerns regarding decadal prediction (initialization issues, sampling size, balance among potentially predictable modes across basins, connection of potentially predictable modes to relevant climate variability)

4. Panels will prepare brief reports describing the scope and aims of current and anticipated US CLIVAR activities in decadal variability and predictability and drought, articulating how these activities contribute to the challenges in these foci. This report will also motivate and identify new research activities that are needed and could be coordinated by their Panels, Working Groups, or US CLIVAR. Following the Summit, these reports will be synthesized into a document useful to the agencies and the US Climate Change Science Program in their strategic planning for the next administration. OK!

5. Explore how best to inform and interact with programs that interface directly with policy and decision makers in order to enhance the relevance of climate research coordinated by US CLIVAR. *Continued coordination and oversight of CPAPP. *Proposed workshop on climate/ecosystem issues *Contribution to drought workshop (October 2008) *Recommended first focusing decadal working group on physical processes, and involving decision makers later, when climate community has a better understanding of capabilities and limitations of decadal prediction.

6. Review the progress of US CLIVAR Working Groups and identify leaders and topics for potential future Working Groups *Tropical biases working group: prospectus will be re-worked with an eye towards analyzing AR5 models. To be submitted in September 2009. *Decadal prediction working group: identified co-chairs, refined prospectus to focus on designing and implementing common metrics for assessing decadal variability in existing data sets, with an eye towards doing similar analyses with AR5 simulations. *Climate impacts on natural resources working group: recommendation is to do a more focused workshop on this topic, which could result in the launching of a working group. *Integrated earth system analysis: recommended a general workshop on this topic, or revised prospectus on a more focused aspect (e.g. coupled ocean-atmosphere, CFSRR).