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Brief to the COPC 21 Oct 2009. Fred Toepfer, PM Dave McCarren, Deputy PM. Agenda. Background NUOPC Status Review Executive Steering Group Update HFIP Demonstration Tri-Agency Luncheon Review HFIP Demonstration Next-Steps Request to COPC for UEO Committee merger with COPC JAGs.

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Brief to the COPC21 Oct 2009

Fred Toepfer, PM

Dave McCarren, Deputy PM


Agenda
Agenda

  • Background

  • NUOPC Status Review

    • Executive Steering Group Update

    • HFIP Demonstration

  • Tri-Agency Luncheon Review

  • HFIP Demonstration

  • Next-Steps

  • Request to COPC for UEO Committee merger with COPC JAGs


Background nuopc purpose and motivation
BackgroundNUOPC Purpose and Motivation

  • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System

    • Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology

    • Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures

    • Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability

  • Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability

    • Leverage the broader US R&D investment

    • NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs


Background nuopc vision 2015
BackgroundNUOPC Vision (2015)

  • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs

  • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)

  • Managed operational ensemble diversity

  • Joint ensemble

    • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather

    • Mission Specific ensemble products

  • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion


Background approach
BackgroundApproach

  • Common global modeling architecture

    • To achieve necessary

      • Operating efficiencies

      • Interoperability

      • Enable benefits of partnership

    • ESMF-based

  • Multi-component system

    • Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles

    • Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error

  • Products will address mission needs for

    • Hurricane storm track and intensity

    • Severe weather (for all agencies)

  • Ensembles used across all agencies to

    • Define most likely forecast

    • Quantify uncertainty

  • Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms will be explored


Esg update
ESG Update

  • Reviewed Phase I Progress

    • Committee Recommendations

    • Stretch goals

  • Reviewed Proposed Phase II Activities

  • Reviewed Phase II Funding Requirements

  • ESG Approved moving to Phase II

  • Reviewed NUOPC management


Esg status review common model architecture committee chair scott sandgathe
ESG Status ReviewCommon Model Architecture CommitteeChair: Scott Sandgathe

Recommendations:

Adopt software interoperability standards

Adopt Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) as operational coupling mechanism

Standardize ESMF implementation and provide user support and training

Establish permanent committees to manage interoperability of legacy and future systems


Esg status review unified ensemble operations committee chair mike clancy
ESG Status ReviewUnified Ensemble Operations CommitteeChair: Mike Clancy

Recommendations:

Establish-

Ensemble configuration & post-processing

Network Operations and Information Assurance safeguards

Ensemble user training

Working groups to coordinate


Esg status review technology transition processes committee chair maj marc hidalgo
ESG Status ReviewTechnology Transition Processes CommitteeChair: Maj Marc Hidalgo

Recommendations:

Establish-

Committee to manage tech transfer

National research agenda

Fellowship Program

Research Transition Facility (RTF)

Visiting Scientist Program

Common configuration management system for technology transition processes

Metrics program


Esg status review nuopc phase ii budget assumptions
ESG Status ReviewNUOPC Phase II Budget Assumptions

Coordinated science and technology infusion initiative

NUOPC costs are those that implement the partnership

(ie. ESMF, common interoperability standards, coordinated research agenda)

Costs for upgrade to individual center capabilities should be in agency FYDP’s

R&D costs to come from focusing existing funds and new initiatives


Esg status review proposed costs fy 10
ESG Status ReviewProposed Costs FY ‘10

CMA 1,040,000

NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure

UEO 620,000

Joint Development and Operations

TTP 350,000

Develop R&D Strategy

and Committee Costs

Management & Overhead 1,140,000

Total 3,150,000

Recommended Funding by Agency

NOAA $1,400,000

Navy $1,400,000

Air Force $ 350,000

Total $3,150,000


Esmf status review proposed esmf support strategy

ESMF Status ReviewProposed ESMF Support Strategy

FTE

National Climate Modeling Community 8.75 = 59%

National Weather Modeling Community 6 = 41%

Total 14.75


Esg status review nuopc activity management
ESG Status ReviewNUOPC Activity Management

NUOPC

Executive Steering Group

OFCM

Add ONR to ESG

NASA and NSF invited observers

(AFW) &

(AFWA)

(N84) &

(CNMOC)

(NWS) &

(OAR)

Common Operational Needs

A g e n c y t a s k i n g

Centers

Recommendations

Oversight

& Tasking

NCEP

FNMOC

Coordination

ESG Executive Agent

NUOPC Management

PM/DPM

NUOPC

Advisory Board

AFWA

Advisory

R & D

R e q u i r e m e n t s


Tri agency luncheon october 2 2009
Tri-Agency LuncheonOctober 2, 2009

  • NUOPC was the focus of the Brief – Briefing provided as part of Backup

  • Discussion Topics included:

    • Sensor losses and how this impacts mission

    • “Battlespace on Demand” as a driver for the capabilities need in next-generation modeling systems

    • Overview of AF mission and current efforts to rebuild Iraqi weather infrastructure

  • NextGen Overview presented by Mark Andrews of JPDO



Hfip demonstration some interesting results

HFIP DemonstrationSome Interesting Results


Next steps primary fy10 tasks
Next StepsPrimary FY10 Tasks

Establish Phase II MOA

Charter NUOPC Advisory Board

Develop National R&D Agenda for Global NWP

Monitor Progress on

Agency Stretch Goals

NAEFS Implementation Activities

Establish Standing Committees

Committee Activities

Evolve NUOPC Software Standards along with their adoption

Continue Defining Common Model Architecture –extend NEMS as a National CMA prototype

Address ESG Action Items


Nuopc advisory board
NUOPC Advisory Board

  • Advisory Board Proposal:

    • Permission requested from the ESG to define an advisory board and establish its charter.

    • Agreed that recommendation for approval related to the long-term management structure will be modified in accordance with redefining the roles of the NUOPC ESG, OFCM, and COPC.

    • It is OFCM’s desire to help, and OFCM is willing to entertain suggestions for what role is appropriate


Next steps national nwp r d agenda
Next StepsNational NWP R&D Agenda

Work with tri-agency liaisons for input on:

  • operational requirements/needs

  • input on R&D agenda

  • summary of ongoing work

  • planned or unfunded future work

    Meeting at AMS for invited HQ, ops and R&D reps - develop draft

    Feb ’10 release outline of R&D Agenda

    June ’10 - release initial draft of document


Next steps monitor stretch goals
Next StepsMonitor Stretch Goals

Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Products (AFWA)

Status: In progress, funded by AF Weather

What’s Been Developed Thus Far

Experimental JEFS Products

Visibility

Cloud Cover (working on CIG algorithm)

Operational GEFS & GEM and WRF-based DCF Products

Cloud Top Height

Cloud Cover

3 to7 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance (NOAA)

Deliver 3 – 7 day probabilistic hurricane track guidance.

Deliver 6 – 7 day probabilistic hurricane intensity guidance.

Status: In progress, funded through HFIP

Joint Wind-Seas Product (Navy)

Deliver wind-seas probability product and forecast sensitivity guidance based on GFS/NOGAPS/WW3 ensembles.

Status: Funded by PMW120. OPDEMO end FY09/Q1FY10


Next steps establish standing committees
Next StepsEstablish Standing Committees

  • Join function of Unified Ensemble Production panel into COPC OCM JAG

  • Join function of Information Assurance & Network Operations panel into COPC CCM JAG

  • Establish NUOPC advisory board (with COPC membership)

  • 3 Standing Committees

    • Common Model Architecture

    • Content Standards Committee - as part of ESMF management

    • Technology Transition Process


Nuopc copc jags
NUOPC/COPC JAGs

  • IA and Network Operations Working Group/Panel - active from 1QFY10 to 1QFY16. Desired expertise would include IA, network operations, and software development. The major activities that this working group/panel would be engaged in include:

    • Liaison with the COPC Joint Action Group for Centralized Communications Management (JAG/CCM) on the enterprise-to enterprise network

    • Establishment of the Super Office of the Designated Approving Authority (ODAA)

    • Coordinating needed bandwidth upgrades

    • Liaison with the Air Force Software Assurance Center of Excellence (ASACoE) to entertain suggestions for what role is appropriate

  • Ensemble Production Working Group/Panel - active from 2QFY10 to 1QFY16. Desired expertise would include ensemble processing, database structures, GRIB2 data format, model resolution, and software change management. The major activities this working group/panel would be engaged in include:

    • Producing required parameters/variables

    • Implementing GRIB2

    • Producing and sharing of the 6-D data base

    • Ensemble configuration and resolution upgrades


Copc requested action
COPC Requested Action

  • Approve JAGs OCM and CCM taking additional taskings under UEO Information Assurance and Ensemble Production Working Groups.

  • Identify mechanism for NUOPC requirements to be tasked to these groups.

  • Adjust membership as required


Nuopc committee roles
NUOPC Committee Roles

  • Content Standards Committee – will maintain and extend NUOPC interoperability standards, especially relating to the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This committee will be part of the ESMF management structure and provide guidance to the ESMF core team in development of a NUOPC-specific interoperability layer.

  • Common Model Architecture Committee – This committee will focus on the next generation global numerical weather modeling effort and adopt standards that will lead to greater interoperability and sharing of common components for next generation systems.

  • TTP Committee- will focus on accelerating new or improved capabilities into NUOPC.  It will form three sub-groups:

    • Research Needs Panel – Will assist in the development of a National R&D agenda and manage the NUOPC Fellowship Program.

    • Research Transition Facilities – Will perform technology transfer functions and manage the Visiting Scientist Program.

    • Scientific Metrics Committee – Will incorporate standardized measures of performance which lead to improved forecast skill.



Nuopc 08062009 esg minutes action items
NUOPC 08062009 ESG MinutesAction Items

  • Revisit plans for ESMF with a view toward the cost-benefit of supporting it through NUOPC; consider available offsets, possible reallocation of existing resources to reduce cost. Consider how ESMF should be managed in order to achieve desired interoperability goals for NUOPC.

  • Define role for OFCM in NUOPC.

  • Provide basis for proposed NUOPC cost growth after FY11

  • Develop a concept for an external science advisory board. What caliber of membership is appropriate? Should they be nationally recognized? How is it related to our proposed advisory board and/or permanent committees? Suspense - to be presented at next ESG meeting

  • Provide RDML Titley with assessment of HFIP resources required for Navy to participate, either TACC or DSRC

  • insourcing/outsourcing. Build a Phase II/Phase III POM plan based on FTEs, then go to the agencies and ask what they are willing to insource. This relates to NUOPC staff, committees and ESMF development. Flesh out Phase III budget in detail for fall building and defense of POM12.

  • Provide a brief summary of Navy NWP R&D efforts to NCEP/Dr. Uccellini; include findings & decisions relative to UKMO model.

  • Continue to refine vision and strategic framework; plan to reconvene in early fall 2009.

  • Develop talking points that provide the “business case” for why to proceed with NUOPC and the broader NWP strategic vision

  • Proceed with scheduling tri-agency luncheon to inform senior agency leadership of NUOPC activities and strategy

  • Propose outreach venues via publications, major conferences, etc.


NUOPC Implementation Schedule

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Prelim Phase I

Beta Test Phase III

Implementation Phase II

FOC

IOC-1

IOC-2

ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS

SW INTEROPERABILITY

INIT.STANDARDS

DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE

EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING

FOC

ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX

OPERATIONS

CONOPS, BUDGET

COMM, IA, HPC

0.5

0.25

0.1

VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM

CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET

TRANSITION

RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF)

OUTREACH

RESEARCH AGENDA

AMS CONFERENCES, PLANS FOR PHASE II

FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM

MANAGEMENT

TT PM, TEMPS

FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS

MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE


Navy

NOAA

(CNO N84)

Administrator

Dr. Lubchenco

RADM Titley

Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) &

Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &

RDML Jon White (CNMOC) &

Col John Murphy (AFWA)

(ONR) (pending)

Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)

Dr. John

Zapotocny

Lt Col David Miller

NUOPC Support Staff

Mike Horner / Paul Demmert / Scott Sandgathe / William O’Connor

Inter-Agency Committees, Working Groups and Action Groups

NUOPC Phase II Support Structure

Air Force

(A3O-W)

Dr. Lewis

Executive Steering Group

Executive Steering Group

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) &

Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &

Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &

Col John Murphy (AFWA)

RDML David Titley (CNMOC)

Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)

NUOPC

NUOPC

NUOPC Staff

NUOPC Deputy PM

NUOPC Project Manager

Management

Management

Chuck McKinley

Dave McCarren

Fred Toepfer

Staff

Staff

Agency

Dr. John

Zapotocny

Joel Cline

Kim Curry

Agency

David Soroka

Kim Curry

Liaisons

Lt Col Bruce Lambert

Jeremy Potter

Steve Payne

Liaisons

Jeremy Potter

Steve Payne


Combination of raw ensembles

500hPa height (CRPS)

850hPa temperature (CRPS)

E20s – NCEP raw

E36g – NCEP+FNMOC

E40g – NCEP+CMC

E56g – all three

2-meter temperature (CRPS)

10-meter U (CRPS)

Winter 2008-2009


Fred Toepfer, PM

Dave McCarren, Deputy PM

October 2, 2009


Purpose of briefing
Purpose of Briefing

  • NUOPC Status Review for Agency Principals


Nuopc purpose and motivation
NUOPC Purpose and Motivation

  • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System

    • Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology

    • Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures

    • Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability

  • Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability

    • Leverage the broader US R&D investment

    • NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs


Background

NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts

coordinated by a Tri-Agency management organization

  • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP

  • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area

  • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC

    • Initial dialog with Stakeholders, March 2007

    • Phase I approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DoC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A3O-W, and Navy N84)

  • 2008

    • Jan 22: Executive Steering Group (ESG) appointed Project Manager, approved ESG Charter for signature and authorized further resolution of “Stretch Goals” for IOC-1

    • Follow-up dialog with Stakeholders, April 2008

    • Three Interim Committees established; chairs appointed, membership selected, first meetings conducted in August 2008

  • 2009

    • June – Draft Committee Reports submitted for Agency review

    • August 6 -- ESG approval to proceed to Phase II


Nuopc vision 2015
NUOPC Vision (2015)

  • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs

  • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)

  • Managed operational ensemble diversity

  • Joint ensemble

    • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather

    • Mission Specific ensemble products

  • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion


Agency senior management
Agency Senior Management

  • Executive Steering Group (ESG):

    • Executive-level agency representative and associate representative from each agency

    • Provide overall policy and oversight

    • Provide resource commitments on behalf of agency principals

    • Approve Implementation Plan and Concept of Operations

  • Agency Principals:

    • NOAA: Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of NOAA

    • AF: Director, Air Force Weather

    • Navy: Oceanographer of the Navy

      • Provide broad policy guidance

      • Ensure sustained agency support

      • Approval authority for execution of NUOPC Phases


Approach
Approach

  • Common global modeling architecture

    • To achieve necessary

      • Operating efficiencies

      • Interoperability

      • Enable benefits of partnership

    • Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) - based

  • Multi-component operational system

    • Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles

    • Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error

  • Products will address mission needs for:

    • Hurricane storm track and intensity

    • Severe weather (for all agencies)

  • Ensembles used across all agencies to

    • Define most likely forecast

    • Quantify uncertainty

  • Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms


NUOPC Implementation Schedule

FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II

Beta Test Phase III

IOC-1

IOC-2

FOC

ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS

INIT.STANDARDS

INTEROPERABILITY

DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE

EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING

ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX,

FOC

CONOPS, BUDGET

OPERATIONS

COMM, IA, HPC

VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM

CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET

TRANSITION

RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF)

OUTREACH

RESEARCH AGENDA

AMS CONFERENCES

FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY


Status
Status

  • Committee Reports Finalized

  • Increased Tri-Agency Coordination

    • ESG Meeting regularly

  • Quantified cost and impact of Phase II

  • Demonstration of a prototype joint ensemble underway

    • North American Ensemble Forecast System

    • NOAA HFIP Demonstration on Texas Area Computer Center

  • Progress toward stretch goals

    • NOAA goal funded through HFIP

    • ONR funded Navy Stretch Goal

  • ESG approved Phase 2 Implementation at 08062009 Meeting


Hfip as proof of concept
HFIP as Proof of Concept

  • Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

    • Multiple high resolution, global models

      • NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS)

      • Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ( NOGAPS)

      • NOAA ESRL Finite Volume, Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM)

    • Multiple data assimilation systems

      • Operational Global Statistical Interpolation (GSI), ESRL Ensemble Kalman Filter System, Navy Operational NAVDAS- AR

    • Running cooperatively at multiple sites


Next phase
Next Phase

  • Prototype Product Development

    • Joint wind, wave, temp probability product

    • Joint visibility ceiling probability product

    • Hurricane Track Probability

  • National R&D Agenda

  • Low resolution Joint Ensemble (NAEFS)

  • NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Demonstration


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