1 / 29

# Pre-regression Basics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pre-regression Basics. Random Vs. Non-random variables Stochastic Vs. Deterministic Relations Correlation Vs. Causation Regression Vs. Causation Types of Data Types of Variables The Scientific Method Necessary & Sufficient Conditions. Random Vs. Non-random Variables.

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

## PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Pre-regression Basics ' - hamish-bryan

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

• Random Vs. Non-random variables

• Stochastic Vs. Deterministic Relations

• Correlation Vs. Causation

• Regression Vs. Causation

• Types of Data

• Types of Variables

• The Scientific Method

• Necessary & Sufficient Conditions

• A random (stochastic, non-deterministic) variable is one whose value is not known ahead of time.

• What’s random to Jill may not be random to Joe.

• A non-random (deterministic, non-stochastic variable) is one whose value is known ahead of time or one whose past value is known.

• EX: Tomorrow’s date, yesterday’s temperature.

• Randomness & Time are linked

• Probability is the likelihood that a random variable will take on a certain value.

• EX: There is an 85% chance of snow tomorrow. Variable: Weather, Possible values: Snow, No snow.

• Probability Distribution: The set of all possible values of a random variable with the associated probabilities of each.

• A continuous distribution shows the probability of the different outcomes for a variable that can take one of several different values along a continuous scale.

• EX: Future inflation may be 3.001%, 3.002 % …50% etc. (The different possible values are close to each other along a smooth continuous scale)

• A discrete distribution shows the probability of the different outcomes for a variable that can take one of several different values along a discrete scale.

• EX: The number of students in class next time may be 1, 2, 3 etc.

• In reality most distributions (in Econ) are discrete but we sometimes assume continuity for theoretical & analytical ease.

• A subjective distribution is when a person has some idea of what the probabilities of the different outcomes (for a RV) are but does not have the exact numbers.

• EX: I have a pretty good guess that I will do well in this class.

• An objective distribution is when the probabilities of each outcome are based on the number of times the outcome occurs divided by the total number of outcomes.

• EX: The probability of drawing a red ball from a jar with 5 red balls and a total of 50 balls is 5/50 or 1 chance in 10.

• Should all probabilities of an event sum to one?

• A non-random variable is a random variable with a degenerate distribution.

• Translation: Any certain event can be expressed as random event that happens with probability one.

• Deterministic relationships are exact formulas where the dependent and independent variables are non-random.

• EX: Ohm’s Law Current = k*Voltage

• Stochastic relationships are not exact formulas that relate dependent and independent variables.

• EX: Quantity demanded = f(Price, Random Term)

• Sources of Randomness: Measurement error, unobservable variables etc.

• Loosely speaking correlation is the phenomenon of two (or more) given variables exhibiting a roughly systematic pattern of movement.

• Ex: Most of the time when stock prices fall the bond market rallies.

• Causation is when one of the variables actually causes the other variable to change.

• Correlation does not imply correlation.

• Causation implies correlation.

• Causation that is not supported by correlation needs to be examined carefully.

• A significant sign on a regression coefficient does not imply causation.

• However if you suspect causation between X & Y and the regression does not support this you must proceed with caution. What is causing the lack of significance? Experimental design flaw, unobservable variables or poor theory?

• Time Series Data: The data are gathered over the same set of variables in different time periods.

• EX: Price and Quantity of Summit Pale Ale Beer for a ten year period.

• Cross Sectional Data: The data are gathered over the same set of variables at a point in time over different cross-sections.

• Ex: Quantity & Price of beer in ’02 across the fifty states.

• EX2: Advertising and sales data across different firms in MN in ‘02

• Pooled Data: The dataset is essentially a cross-sectional dataset collected over the same variables in each of several different time periods.

• EX: Cigarette Price & Quantity data in each of 50 states from 1955 – 1994.

• Dependent (Endogenous)

• Independent(Exogenous)

• Discrete

• Continuous

• Categorical

• The determination of a dependent variable is explained by the theory.

• Independent variables come from outside the theory. We do not know what causes these variables but use the independent variables to study the dependent variable.

• Simultaneity: A theory may have more than one dependent variable such that two or more dependent variables influence each other. Such a situation is referred to as a simultaneous relationship.

• EX: Equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity influence each other. Both are endogenous variables explained by price theory.

• A discrete variable is one that takes on finitely many values. They do not have to be integers such as 1, 2, 3 etc.

• A continuous variable can take on infinitely many values.

• Dependent & Independent variables can be either discrete or continuous.

• Some variables may be either discrete or continuous but may be grouped into categories for ease of analysis.

• EX: Age 0 – 10 yrs, 11 – 20 yrs etc.

• Regression is the process of finding the line or curve that ‘best’ fit a given set of data points.

• Francis Galton “Family Likeness in Stature”, Proceedings of Royal Society London, vol. 40, 1886.

• A is said to be a sufficient condition for B. If A happens B will be guaranteed to occur.

• EX: Ceteris Paribus, if it rains then the football field will be wet. Necessary & Sufficient Conditions.

• If A is observed and ceteris paribus B does not occur then the idea that A causes B is called into question.

• EX: Theory: C.P. Price is negatively related to quantity demanded.

• We observe price falling and ceteris paribus quantity demanded also falls. Does the data support the theory?

• Econometrically we can estimate an equation for demand.

• Q = f(Price, Income, Other Variables)

• What is the predicted sign on the coefficient of price? (Is it significant?)

• Denying the antecedent:

It did not rain therefore the football field cannot be wet (How about a sprinkler system?)

• Affirming the consequent:

The field is wet therefore it must have rained.

(Sprinklers may have been on)

• The only logical equivalent to A=> B is the contrapositive statement ~B => ~A.

• EX1: If it rains then the field will be wet.

(Contrapositive) The field is dry therefore it did not rain.

• EX2: If cigarettes are addictive then past consumption influences present consumption.

(Contrapositive) If past consumption does not influence present consumption then cigarettes are not addictive.