Applying maritime risk in decision making
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Applying Maritime Risk in Decision Making. A Facilitated Discussion among Decision Makers and Tool Builders. Abstract.

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Applying Maritime Risk in Decision Making

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Applying maritime risk in decision making

Applying Maritime Risk in Decision Making

A Facilitated Discussion among Decision Makers and Tool Builders


Abstract

Abstract

During the final day of the symposium, a large discussion will be facilitated with the intent to connect the needs of maritime risk users with risk tool developers. Discussions will begin with responses from maritime security professionals describing their typical days, the threats and challenges faced, and the risk decisions they make. These professionals will also be asked to provide details on the tools they currently use, gaps within their risk decision making, and areas where expansion or new tools are needed. Following the information sharing by security professionals, the risk tool developers present will discuss the current tools used by the professionals, potential uses of other tools available to security professionals, and efforts underway to improve risk tools and address the challenges faced by security professionals. If time permits after the discussion of typical daily challenges and decisions, potential maritime threat scenarios will be discussed to examine how these change the needs of the decision makers and what risk tools are available or in development to support these needs.


Maritime environment

Maritime Environment

  • 95,000 miles of coastline in the U.S.

  • More than 430 commercial ports in the world

    • 361 U.S. commercial ports

  • 46,000 ships engaged in international trade

    • 2,700 container vessels

    • 23,281 bulk-cargo vessels

  • Over 1 million seafarers in the international merchant fleet

    • More than 100,000 visit U.S. ports each year


Maritime environment1

Maritime Environment

  • 12-15 million containers used in world trade

    • More than 9 million arrive in U.S. ports annually

  • 318 billion gallons of petroleum products shipped annually on U.S. waters

  • Millions of passengers traveling via ferries and cruises annually

    • 9 million passengers board cruise ships in U.S. ports annually

    • More than 66 million passengers travel by ferry annually in the U.S.

  • Thousands of small vessels – recreational boats, fishing vessels, etc.

    • More than 77 million adults annually engage in recreational boating


Example maritime attack characteristics

Example Maritime Attack Characteristics

Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf


Sample maritime threats scenarios

Sample Maritime Threats Scenarios

  • A nuclear device aboard an incoming vessel

  • Attack on port with biological disease agent

  • Detonation of a “dirty” bomb in a shipping container

  • Aircraft or small vessel attack on passenger ferry or cruise ship

  • Chemical attack on a cruise ship (i.e. Sarin gas)

  • Bombing and sinking of a liquefied propane gas (LPG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers or terminals

Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf


Sample maritime threats scenarios1

Sample Maritime Threats Scenarios

  • Chlorine Tank Explosion

  • Improvised Explosive Device attached to freighter

  • Terrorist stowaways on an inbound vessels

  • Explosion of oil tanker in shipping channel

  • Theft of gasoline tanker truck

  • Explosives attack on chlorine storage tank in port

Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf


Maritime agencies resources

Maritime Agencies & Resources

  • U.S. Coast Guard

  • Customs & Border Protection

  • U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement

  • Port Authority & Security

  • Transportation Security Administration

  • State/Local Authority (Police, Sheriff, etc.)


Decision makers typical day

Decision Makers Typical Day

  • Please describe a typical day including the following:

    • What threats are faced?

    • Which activities are conducted?

    • What resources do you have?

    • What demands are faced?

    • What are typical operations?

    • What are some standard events that occur unexpectedly or on an unscheduled basis?

    • What other missions are you directed to accomplish?


Given a typical day questions for decision makers

Given a Typical DayQuestions for Decision Makers

  • What risk-based decisions are faced?

  • Which tools are currently used to make these decisions?

  • What gaps exist in current risk tools for decision makers? Where are the problems?

  • How do unexpected changes impact decision making?


What risk based decisions are made

What Risk-Based Decisions are Made?

  • What decisions is risk currently used for?

    • (Funding, Testing, Research & Development, Resource Allocation, etc.)

  • How often are risk assessments performed?

    • (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Annually, etc.)

  • What level of the organization is performing risk-based decision making?

    • (Strategic, Operational, Tactical)


What risk based decisions are made1

What Risk-Based Decisions are Made?

  • How is risk used to determine resource allocation?

  • How often are risk assessments updated and reviewed?

    • (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Annually, etc.)


What tools are currently used

What Tools are Currently Used?


What gaps exist in current tools what problems are not addressed

What Gaps Exist in Current Tools?What Problems are not Addressed?

  • How are specific activities accounted for in risk assessments?

    • (Prevention, Deterrence, Response, Recovery efforts, etc.)

  • How are interactions between activities accounted for?

  • How are changes in assessments accounted for?

    • (general threat increase, specific threat increase, etc.)


What gaps exist in current tools what problems are not addressed1

What Gaps Exist in Current Tools?What Problems are not Addressed?

  • Who and how are values for risk determined?

    • (Threat, Vulnerability, Consequences)

  • How is risk communicated?

    • (Chain of Command, Public, Partners, etc.)

  • How are other risk assessments incorporated?

    • (Other agencies, private sector, other levels, etc.)

  • How are negative consequences associated with anti/counter terrorism activities incorporated into assessments?


How do typical unexpected changes impact decision making

How do typical unexpected changes impact decision making?

  • How is an anonymous call about suspicious activity in the port responded to?

  • How does a mechanical breakdown in a resource (i.e. patrol platform) impact decisions?

  • How are resources and decisions affected by an oil spill?


How do typical unexpected changes impact decision making1

How do typical unexpected changes impact decision making?

  • What happens if a ship arrives to the port unexpectedly? What if an HIV transit is delayed?

  • How is a boating accident (i.e. SAR cases or Cruise ship breakdown) incorporated into the decision making process?

  • How are simultaneous security events accounted for? (i.e. HVU transit & ferry movement)


Given typical maritime day questions for risk tool providers

Given Typical Maritime DayQuestions for Risk Tool Providers

  • How can current tools be refined and/or improved to close gaps?

  • What additional risk tools exist to assist in the decisions faced?

  • What ideas exist for addressing the gaps faced by decision makers?

  • How can risk tools account for sudden typical daily changes?


How can current tools be refined or improved

How can Current Tools be Refined or Improved?

  • How can determination of values for risk assessments be improved?

    • (combination of SME input, collection of quantitative data, etc.)

  • How can risk assessments be automated?


What additional risk tools exist to meet decision makers needs

What Additional Risk Tools Exist to Meet Decision Makers Needs?


What ideas exist for addressing the gaps faced by decision makers

What Ideas Exist for Addressing the Gaps Faced by Decision Makers?

  • How can risk assessments be refined to incorporate effectiveness?

    • (Game theory, Bayesian Probabilities, etc.)

  • How can risk assessments be refined to incorporate interactions/overlaps of activities?


What ideas exist for addressing the gaps faced by decision makers1

What Ideas Exist for Addressing the Gaps Faced by Decision Makers?

  • How can risk assessments incorporate negative impacts associated with HLS activities?

    • (i.e. slowdown of commerce, etc.)

  • How can risk assessments be standardized to facilitate risk communication?


How can risk tools account for sudden typical daily changes

How Can Risk Tools Account for Sudden Typical Daily Changes?

  • How are resource casualties/losses incorporated?

  • How are delays in schedules/or unexpected arrivals accommodated?

  • How are other competing demands beside security factored into decision making? (i.e. SAR, oil spill response, etc.)


Scenario 1

Scenario #1

  • A generator casualty to a cruise ship causes the ship to loose power, blocking the main shipping channel and delaying the inbound transit of two High Interest Vessels with boarding teams onboard.


Scenario 1 decision makers

Scenario #1 – Decision Makers

  • Given the delays to security efforts (HIV boarding/escort) and increased vulnerability of the cruise ship, how would the daily decisions be affected?

  • How would risk assessments incorporate these changes?

  • What risk assessment tools could be used to support resource decisions in this scenario?

  • What gaps exist in addressing this type of scenario?


Scenario 1 tool providers

Scenario #1 – Tool Providers

  • What risk tools exist to address this type of scenario or incorporate the associated changes?

  • How can risk tools be used to address the gaps discussed?

  • What can be incorporated into current risk tools to improve accuracy in decision making for this type of scenario?

  • What tools are in development that might assist decision makers facing this scenario?

  • What risk tools would be used?


Scenario 2

Scenario #2

  • An accident at the port facility causes the temporary shut down of work at the facility.


Scenario 2 decision makers

Scenario #2 – Decision Makers

  • How does this temporary event impact port operations and security efforts?

  • How does this event impact the decision making process?

  • What risk tools would be used?

  • What gaps exist in addressing this type of scenario?


Scenario 2 tool providers

Scenario #2 – Tool Providers

  • What risk tools exist to address this type of scenario or incorporate the associated changes?

  • How can risk tools be used to address the gaps discussed?

  • What can be incorporated into current risk tools to improve accuracy in decision making for this type of scenario?

  • What tools are in development that might assist decision makers facing this scenario?


Scenario 3

Scenario #3

  • A recreational vessel with three people is reported missing and was last seen taking on water offshore in the early evening, shortly before a scheduled security event.


Scenario 3 decision makers

Scenario #3 – Decision Makers

  • How is the decision between demands competing for the same resources made?

  • What risk tools would be used?

  • How is readiness to respond to an unexpected event (i.e. SAR) incorporated into resource decisions?

  • How is risk from SAR compared against risk from terrorism?

  • What gaps exist in addressing this type of scenario?


Scenario 3 tool providers

Scenario #3 – Tool Providers

  • What risk tools exist to compare risks between various types of missions and competing demands?

  • How can risk tools facilitate decision making in this scenario?

  • What can be incorporated into current risk tools to improve accuracy in decision making for this type of scenario?

  • What tools are in development that might assist decision makers facing this scenario?


Open discussion

Open Discussion


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