Cppa past ongoing activities
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CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate ( EPIC ) Land-Atmosphere Interactions Understand and model land-atmosphere interactions Land surface model Land data assimilation system

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CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities

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Cppa past ongoing activities

CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities

  • Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions

    • Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases

      • Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC)

  • Land-Atmosphere Interactions

    • Understand and model land-atmosphere interactions

      • Land surface model

      • Land data assimilation system

    • Develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models and analyses

      • Regional Reanalysis and regional climate modeling

  • Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions

    • Evaluate and improve the observing and coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system

      • North American monsoon experiment (NAME)

      • Western mountain hydroclimate

      • Drought and climate extremes predictability

  • Water Resource Applications

    • interpret climate forecasts for better water resource management

      • hydrologic predictability

      • improve hydrologic forecasting

      • develop water resource decision support tools


Expected short term cppa achievements

Expected short-term CPPA Achievements

  • reduced ocean-atmosphere model biases

  • improved land surface model as part of global climate models

  • operational global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) which provides initial land states for GCM

  • improved seasonal predictions via regional climate models

  • improved warm season precipitation prediction

  • better drought monitoring and prediction products

  • improved applications of climate forecasts for various decision support


Opportunities in next 10 years from advances in the entire science and technology communities

Opportunities in next 10 years(from advances in the entire science and technology communities)

  • new and improved observations and data

    • for process studies; better initial conditions; model validation

  • increased computing power

    • higher resolution models; larger ensemble runs;

  • increased complexity of models

    • process-resolved models, e.g., cloud-resolving models, dynamic vegetation

  • modern data assimilation


Cppa long term direction to address remaining uncertainties

  • focus on regional impacts of global & large scale variability

  • study and simulate fine-scale, more complex physical processes

    • predictability of the coupled climate/Earth system

    • clouds and land-atmosphere coupling;

    • meso-scale air-sea interaction

  • field experiments in support of model improvements (CPT approach)

  • continue to transfer research into NOAA operations

  • expand applications beyond water resource management

    • fire

    • agriculture

CPPA Long-term Directionto address remaining uncertainties


Cppa fy07 09 priorities

CPPA FY07-09 Priorities

Drought predictability and prediction

Large scale forcing; regional and small scale feedbacks;

American Monsoon monitoring and prediction

Land surface processes and modeling

Tropical Pacific SST prediction

double ITCZ; eastern ocean boundary SST;

Field experiments (using CPT approach)

Western Mountain Hydroclimate Studies (winter season)

VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)

Improve applications of climate forecast for water resource management


Cppa past ongoing activities

Modeled snowpack and

runoff improved with

topographic Influences (Leung et al.)

Western Mountain Hydroclimatology

Challenge and future studies:

  • Observations and data analyses

    • orographic precipitation including assimilating remote sensing data

    • hydroclimatic processes in western mountains in cold seasons

  • Prediction

    • downscaling precipitation forecasts from large scale to sub-basin

    • seasonal predictability in mountain regions (local and remote forcing)

    • representation of subgrid variability of hydrologic variables (precipitation, snow, togography, vegetation) in climate models

Monsoon mountain

rainfall very sensitive

to model parameterizations

(Gochis et al.)

- A planning meeting will be held in 2006 to develop

implementation strategies

- will leverage community and interagency effort


Vamos ocean cloud atmosphere land studies vocals

VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)

VOCALS is an international program for studies of the eastern tropical Pacific climate

VOCALS is a post EPIC study

Science goals emphasize:

Interactions between the climate in the southeastern Pacific and remote climates, particularly over South America and its monsoon system,

Biases in coupled GCMs and effects on seasonal and interannual predictability,

Local air-sea interactions, including stratocumulus clouds.


Main users of cppa program

Main Users of CPPA Program

NWS operations

NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and GFDL climate model

NWS/OHD & RFCs hydrologic prediction system

Information needs: improved understanding and modeling of climate processes and improved forecast skill

Water resource managers

Information needs: downscaling of climate forecasts and regionalized forecasts

Fire manager, agriculture, …

Information needs:


How to measure program progress

How to measure program progress?

number of new/improved products

new/improved model components and schemes

reports on predictability studies

demonstration of improved simulation/forecast skills


How to engage stakeholders

How to engage stakeholders?

How does CPPA engage stakeholders and end users?

direct engagement:

fund projects to directly work with stakeholders

CPPA Core Project to directly transfer research into NWS operations

indirect engagement thru partnership with other programs, such as, SARP, NCTP

example: experimental hydrologic prediction system

How to quantify the impacts of CPPA on stakeholders?

number of case studies and successful stories


Cppa past ongoing activities

CPPA International Components

  • meetings for scientific planning, field coordination, and post-field data set development, analyses, and modeling

  • travel of international PIs and their students to participate in the field and to enable joint research among investigators

  • transfer of research into other countries

    • Expand LDAS and hydrologic Prediction system into Mexico

    • Test Eta model in S. America

  • forecaster exchanges

  • collaborative deployment and operation of observing systems

  • cooperative development and provision of data sets

  • observing system design and transition to operations


Cppa past ongoing activities

CPPA Educational Components

  • training courses in observations, analysis and modeling

  • graduate education opportunities at US institutions


Issues

Issues

Does NOAA Climate Prediction & Project Program support international climate operations/services?

NOAA needs a mechanism for operational organizations to take over long-term research data development so that research funds can be released to support new research.


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