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Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -. 2003.10.18 임 준서 Paion . Agenda. I. Demands 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성 Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못 II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황 NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개 경쟁관계 – 별자리도 Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정. Agenda. III. 변화와 대안 Telco Crash 생태계( Eco-System) 의 변화

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Network soc l.jpg

NetworkSoC 산업- “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -

2003.10.18

임 준서

Paion


Agenda l.jpg

Agenda

I. Demands

  • 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성

  • Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못

    II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황

  • NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개

  • 경쟁관계 – 별자리도

  • Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정


Agenda3 l.jpg

Agenda

III. 변화와 대안

  • Telco Crash

  • 생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화

  • 변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들 ; 예) PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, AMCC

  • 자금시장 변화

  • Network 기술 시장 대안

  • Network SOC 의 Re-positioning


Agenda4 l.jpg

Agenda

IV. SoC 산업의 성공적인미래

  • Global Trend

  • 중국 시장의 부상

  • Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry

  • 제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning

  • Trend 읽기 – 문화

  • 기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당

  • 교육적인 측면에서


Demand l.jpg

Demand

시장에 대한 이해의 필요

통신 사업자의 서비스 변화에 따른 장비 및 부품 수요

Eco-System 의 중요성


Core router hype l.jpg

Core Router : Hype ?

Cisco

GSR12416

Juniper

M160

Charlotte

Aranea-1

Lucent

Nx64000

Avici

TSR

Pluris

Teraplex

  • 인터넷 트래픽의 증가, 3달에2배씩 [ 미국 상무성]

  • WorldCom

  • 2001년까지, 대형 Terabit 라우터, 대용량 고속 스위치 패브릭, 네트워크 프로세서 개발에 막대한 투자

$215M

2002 가을

Aggregated

Switching

Bandwidth

320~640G

160Gbps+

320G~1.9T

320G~6.4T

400G ~ 36T

320G~19.2T


Investment bubble l.jpg

Investment : Bubble ?

이더넷 신기술 워크샵 2001-5-24


Big picture l.jpg

Big Picture

Telco Market

Terabit Core Router

MPLS Router

Metro Core

Last Mile

Access

Metro Edge

Enterprise

Metro Ethernet

(L3 switch)

PDSN

802.11 AP

EPON (OLT)

PSTN

Storage Networking –

SAN Fabric, TOE

LAN SW

BSC

Security –

VPN, IDS, Firewall

CDN/ Server Load balancing

Ethernet

EPON (ONU)

IP-DSLAM

Enterprise Switch

VDSL

Base stations

VDSL


Slide9 l.jpg

KT 의 메트로 및 가입자 스위치

2.5 G

2.5 G

Cisco GSR12000

백본

라우터

G/E

메트로 코어

대용량 스위치

  • >120Gbps, 48G 포트

  • Extreme Black Diamond 8808

  • >36Gbps, 20G+128F 포트

  • Riverstone 38000

메트로 코어

중용량 스위치

G/E

  • >16Gbps, 4G+70F 포트

  • Cisco Catalyst 6506,

  • Riverstone 8600,

  • Extreme Alpine 3808

1G

1G

Ntopia

스위치

VOD server

GES

1G

1G

엑세스

스위치

엔터프라이즈

스위치

  • >8Gbps, 2G+32F 포트

  • 로커스, 미리넷

  • 다산, 코어세스, 텔리언

DSLAM

FE

FE

[KT 메트로 이더넷 망 구성도]


Broadband access l.jpg

Broadband Access

  • Carrier overcapacity than demand, i.e., carriers are in no condition to purchase any equipment.

  • 전반적으로 침체되었던 네트워크 장비 산업은 2002 년 후반기 VDSL, Metro Ethernet 으로 회복되면서, 2002년도 평균 42% 성장함.

  • KT 등 통신 사업자 주도의 VDSL (Ntopia-V) 및 Metro Ethernet (Ntopia-E) 사업 그리고, Netspot 사업은 Broadband 분야에서 아시아 및 한국의 성공적인 시장을 창출하였음.

  • 주요 칩셋 벤더의 주된 타깃 시장이 아시아로 이동함.

  • 2003년의화두는 여전히 VDSL 고도화였고, 향후중국이최대시장으로부상할것임

  • 국내 중대형 스위치 시스템은 전량 해외 수입 상황임.


Epon 100mbps broadband l.jpg

EPON – 100Mbps+ Broadband 서비스 , 시스템, 부품 분야에서 한국이 주도할 수 있는 단계임

20km

MTU/MDU

EPON-OLT

ONU

Core

VDSL,

Ethernet,

FTTH

Splitter

16:1~32:1

Metro Ethernet

ONT

Home Network

  • Optical First Mile

  • Minimum fiber/space in CO

  • No power supply in field

  • Downstream broadcast (video)

  • 100Mbps ~1Gbps Broadband service, cf. VDSL 13~25Mbps, 50Mbps

DSLAM


Slide12 l.jpg

네트워크 SoC- 통신 서비스 인프라의 핵심 부품

  • Backbone & Metro – Telco Market

    • Core/Terabit Router - Network Processor, Switch Fabric

    • Metro Ethernet Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric

  • Last Mile Access Market

    • EPON (FTTH) OLT/ONU, VDSL - Ethernet Switch Processor

  • Home Networking

    • NAT, Home Gateway, Wireless Switch - Low end Network Processor

  • Enterprise Market

    • Enterprise Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric

    • Security VPN, L7 Content switch - Network Processor


Soc state of the art l.jpg

네트워크 SOC 기술의 State-of-the-art

Network Processor

Co-Processor (Classifier, Lookup, Security, Storage)

Switch Fabric

Ethernet Switch Processor


Network processor value positioning l.jpg

Network Processor Value Positioning

  • Network Processor ?

    • A programmable device optimized for packet processing

    • Header parsing, pattern matching, bit-field manipulation, table look-ups, packet modification, traffic management

    • Must be done at wire speed, Handle Layer 3-7 tasks

  • Reduced design cycle for NEV

    • Adaptability to changing standards and protocols being developed– IPv6, SIP, IPSec, MPLS, DiffServ …

    • Faster implementation of Incremental features

    • Performance “headroom” for future upgrades : 50% in usual

  • Total Cost Of Ownership


Forwarding and qos functions l.jpg

Forwarding and QoS functions

Ingress

Egress

Scheduler

DRR, WFQ

Queue

scheduling

Per Interface

WRED

VOQ

Switch Fabric

Input

Ports

Classification

Output

Ports

IP

Lookup

Rate

Limiting

Policing/Marking

DSCP written

L2/L3/L4 filter

Drop

  • Usage based Billing Service

  • Wire-Speed Packet Classification for per-flow rate Limiting

  • DSCP (Differentiated Service Code Point) written at ingress

  • Classified and potentially discarded by WRED (Congestion avoidance)

  • Assigned to the appropriate outgoing queue

  • Output Scheduling for transmission (priority queuing)


Network processing platform l.jpg

Network Processing Platform

Control Plane (Protocol Processing & Management )

CPU

Data Plane Processing

PCI, HT, RapidIO, PCI-Ex

Network Processor

Switch Fabric

High-Speed

Interface

MAC/PHY

Gigabit

Ethernet/

IEEE802.3ah/

IEEE802.11/

VDSL

Packet Classifier

Packet

Processor

(Lookup &

Forwarding)

Traffic

Manager

(QoS,

Scheduling)

Security Engine

NPF LA-1

CSIX, SPI3, SPI4.2, NPF SI

Search

Engine - CAM

Lookup

Memory


Function map l.jpg

Function Map

  • Routing (BGP, OSPF)

  • MPLS Routing

  • Management (SNMP, RMON, MIB)

  • Wire Speed Layer 4~7 Content Inspection

  • Load Balancing

  • Per-Flow Classification

CPU

Network Processor

Switch Fabric

High-Speed

Interface

Gigabit

Ethernet

Packet Classifier

Packet

Processor

(Lookup &

Forwarding)

Traffic

Manager

(QoS,

Scheduling)

EPON

IEEE802.3ah

Security Engine

Wireless

IEEE802.11

VDSL

  • High speed switching

  • Non Blocking - VOQ

  • Reliability/Redundancy

  • Bandwidth Scalability : 80G,320G,640G

MAC/Framer, PHY

  • IP Lookup

  • IPv6 Lookup

  • Layer3+ Forwarding

  • NAT

  • MPLS

  • Field Manipulation

  • VPN - IPsec

  • SSL acceleration

  • TCP termination

  • Security Filtering

  • Security Rule

Search

Engine - CAM

Lookup

Memory

  • Congestion Avoidance

  • Priority Scheduling

  • Bandwidth Policing

  • Service Level Agreement

  • Billing, Rate Limiting


Network processor issues l.jpg

Network Processor Issues

  • Processing Bandwidth

    • 1G (1.488Mpps)  OC-48 (7Mpps)  OC-192 (32Mpps)  40G (120+ Mpps)

    • Deep packet classification, 1M LUT

    • Multi-Processors : 100%+ compute headroom

    • More powerful engines – VLIW, SMP, Dynamic multithreading

    • Extensive use of hard-wired co-processor, classification, etc

  • Memory Bandwidth

    • Layer 3 10G requires 5GBps + sustained, 6~10 GBps peak

      • 4 * Rambus = 6.4 GBps peak

      • 256 bit DDR-266 = 8.5 GBps peak

      • 300MHz DDR = 9.4GBps peak

    • Layer 7 10G

      • Need 20GBps sustained memory BW just for packet queuing

      • Combination of embedded DRAM (bandwidth) and external memory(capacity)

  • Line/Fabric Interface

    • Need higher bandwidth & low pin counts

    • CSIX-L1 scales poorly to 10G - Too many pins

    • SPI4.2 standard for 10G line side


  • Processing engine old data l.jpg

    [참고] Processing Engine – Old Data


    Bandwidth old data l.jpg

    [참고] Bandwidth – Old Data


    Interface l.jpg

    [참고] Interface

    • Utopia (ATM Interface)

      • Level 1 : 8bit, 25MHz  OC-3(155Mbps)

      • Level 2 : 16bit, 50MHz  OC-12(640Mbps)

      • Level 3 : 32bit, 104MHz  OC-48(3.2Gbps)  OIF SPI-3

      • SPI-4.1 : 64bit, 200MHz  OC-192(10Gbps)

      • SPI-4.2 : 16bit, 622MHz  OC-192(10Gbps), LVDS 311MHz DDR

    • CSIX L1

      • CFrame : 32xn bit(n=1,2,3,4) with 100/200/250MHz  up to 32Gbps

        • 32bit @100MHz  32Gbps, OC-48

        • 64bit @200MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192

        • 128bit @100MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192

      • LVCMOS(166MHz), LHSTL(250MHz), Trace Length : 6~8 inch

      • Header(2B) – Header Ext(4B) – Payload(256B) – Parity(2B)

        • Class (8bit  256 Class) , Destination (12 bit  4096 CSIX port)

      • Xon/Xoff port-level flow control, In-band control CFrame

      • Too many implementation option, Not optimized for 10G

    • NPF SI :

      • Logical protocol scalable from 10Gbps to 40 Gbps

      • 16 bit LVDS datapath 622MHz

      • NP-NP : 256 ~1M port, 256 class, NP-Fabric : 64K port, 256 class


    Tcam lookup processing l.jpg

    Performance

    2Mb

    $70

    66~100 Msps

    0.18um

    4.5Mb

    0.15um

    100 Msps

    $150

    0.13um

    9Mb

    133 Msps

    $300

    tCAM Lookup Processing

    • Search entries that match key(comparand)

      • CAM returns address of the matching location

      • Most designs optimized for 72 bit search, 72-bit comparand bus

      • Often runs at 2xcore clock or in DDR mode

      • 144bit key Write operation in single memory cycle for five-tuple lookup

      • 576bit search for IPv6


    Flow classification for qos l.jpg

    Flow Classification for QoS

    Classification

    (classify flows)

    Scheduling

    (Priority)

    Rate Limiting

    (Per-flow RL)

    Control packets

    Voice flows

    HTTP flows

    FTP flows


    Per flow rate limiting l.jpg

    Per-Flow Rate Limiting

    • Flow

      • A sequence of packets with one common characteristics

        based on any field at certain layer for some period of time

      • Associate IP packets to flows, provide guarantees for specific flows

    • Rate Limiting

      • Bandwidth allocation for each Customer/Application/Flow

      • If current rate is within agreed controlled(in-profile), admit

        Otherwise (out-of-profile) discard or downgrade packet

      • Bandwidth Provisioning granularity

    • Packet Classification

      • Identifies the flow to the which an arriving packet belongs.

      • Identification may require complex operations

      • Stores this information internally once, then other blocks of NP operation for each packet using flow ID


    Npu industry l.jpg

    NPU Industry

    • System vendors want Complete Solutions

      • NPU, search engine, MAC, PHY, fabric

        • Reduces TCO, project overhead, and design time

        • Easier for new OEMs to enter market

        • Fast market creation using off-the-shelf NPUs

      • Successful vendors must offer all parts – driven continued M&A

    • Big CPU vendors jumped in

      • Intel, IBM, Motorola

    • PHY vendors moving upstream

      • AMCC, Vitesse, Agere

      • Software is a new challenge

    • Related players acquired

      • SwitchOn, Orologic, Maker, NetBoost, SoftCom, Trillium, QED, SiByte

  • Startup continue to emerge

    • EZchip, ClearWater, Cognigine, Bay Micro, Internet Machine, …


  • Competition map np1 l.jpg

    Competition Map [NP1]

    AMCC (Market 40%)

    AMCC7250

    • Same 7120 core

    • 220MHz, 0.18um

    • 2 SPI3 (2GMII or OC48c) Duplex

    • 10Gbps TM (5700) on Line card

    • ViX 5Gbps (no CSIX)

    • 2~4Gbps (Memory BW)

    • $300

    4th Generation

    3rd Generation

    • AMCC nP7510

    • 0.13um Full-Customized nPcore

    • 10G (Simplex) Sample 4Q01

    • Six engine @ 330MHz

    • ViX/SPI4 conversion chip

    • More Headroom

    • Ingress/Egress 2K Flow each

    • AMCC nP7570

    • SPI4.2 Duplex version

    • Biggest Competitor IXP2800

    nP7510

    10G

    nP7570

    10G

    nP7250

    OC-48

    2002.May

    2003

    Sample June2001

    nP7270

    OC-48

    nP3400

    2G+24F

    nP3404

    4xGE

    AMCC 7120

    2 packet engine(nPcore RISC)

    220MHz, 0.18um

    3Mpps, 5Gbps (line rate)

    ViX 5Gbps (Fabric interface)

    440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)

    Strong Compiler, Design Win Winner

    0.13um Q2 2002

    May 2001

    2000

    nP7120

    2xGE

    nP3450

    2G+24F

    nP3454

    4xGE

    Integrated Switch

    2000

    Sample 3Q03

    Sample 3Q03

    NP Pioneer

    INTEL ( 11%)

    IXP1200

    IXP2400

    IXP2800

    IXP2850

    • StrongArm, [email protected]

    • IXBUS (External MAC)

    • 3rd software – Teja, IPinfusion,LynuxWorks

    • SDKv2.0 May/2001 (free)

    • C compiler $2000/site

    • Aggressive design win Push

    • Simplex OC-48

    • 7Mpps @600MHz

    • CSIXL1 over SPI3

    • 0.18um, Xscale based

    • $200~300, Sep. 2002

    • 10G (Simplex)

    • 30Mpps with 16 packet engine(1.4GHz)

    • 700MHz Xscale at 0.13um

    • CSIX over SPI4.2

    • >$400, Apr. 2003

    • 2800 + Security


    Competition map np2 l.jpg

    Competition Map [NP2]

    IBM (19%)

    Agere ( 9%)

    APP550

    APP750

    Payload

    NP4GS3

    NP4GX

    • APP550

    • Duplex(OC-48, 4GbE)

    • TSMC 0.13um

    • 266MHz

    • $550, 2Q03 Volume

    • Traffic Manager $550

    • APP520

    • Duplex (2GbE, OC-48)

    • $195, Apr. 2003

    • APP750

    • Simplex (10Gbps)

    • SPI4.2

    • Connection to PI40

    • Agere 0.16um

    • Sample 2003

    • NP+TM (860+$700)

    • PayloadPlus

    • 5Gbps, 3chip Solution ($585)

    • High-end ATM applications

    • On-chip SAR (OC-48 speed)

    • Scale well OC-192

    • TSMC 0.18um Full custom, Late/2001

    • NP4GS3(Rainier)

    • 4GbE MAC

    • PowerPC 405 + 16 packet engine

    • 8 Gbps line, 2x7.5Gbps fabric (DASL)

    • Difficult to program - No compiler, support customer base

    • Limited performance and poor scalability

    • 0.18um, $400

    • 2001/Q1 Production

    • 4 GMII with CSIX/UDASL

    • 0.13um

    • Dropped

    Motorola (15%)

    C-5

    C-5e

    C-3e

    C-10

    • 4 GbE, OC-48

    • 32bit Utopia, CSIX

    • MIPS-based compiler

    • 233MHz 0.18um

    • Production 2001, $400~500

    • 10 Gbps (Simplex)

    • 600MHz 0.13um Custom design

    • SPI4.2

    • Sample 2H03 with Q-10

    • 4 GbE, OC-48

    • 32bit CSIX

    • 266MHz 0.15um

    • Production 2002, $450

    • Traffic Manager Q-5 ($575)

    • 1 GbE or 8 FE

    • 16bit Utopia

    • 180MHz 0.15um

    • Production 2002, $200

    • Traffic Manager Q-3 ($235)


    Npu industry update l.jpg

    NPU Industry Update

    • NPU Market Forecasting

      • NPU Market $1.5B @2005 [Cahners In-Stat, 2002]

      • NPU Market $728M @2005 [Gartner Dataquest, 2002]

    • NPU Market 2002

      • $65 million (total Revenue) - A far cry from the hundreds of million dollars that IC maker till believe is possible

      • 600 design wins @2001 leads to $65 million @2002

      • Market is questionable with annual $50 million spending

    • NPU Player

      • AMCC market leader : 38 %

      • Intel : 200 design wins

      • Motorola : 15%

      • IBM : 19%, High-end, but pulled out

      • Agere : Late player in IP, but actively

      • Vitesse : pulled out from long-haul business

      • Many startup ceased operation, even Big player pulled out

    • Key Issues

      • What is sweet-spot application? Storage, Security, L7 for IDC

      • Who will be remained? Alternative? 10G NPU, Access, Wireless


    Constellation l.jpg

    ClearSpeed

    Fast-Chip

    Acorn

    Solidum

    Clearwater

    Cognigine

    MUSIC

    IBM Rainier

    Vitesse IQ2000

    Allayer AL1032

    Constellation

    40G NPU

    10G+ NPU

    Co-processor

    EZchip NP-2

    Silicon Access

    EZchip NP-1

    Xelerated Packet

    Intel IXP2800

    AMCC nP7510

    Internet Machine

    SwitchOn

    Lexra

    Agere APP750

    CAM

    Bay Micro

    2.5G NPU

    IDT

    Cypress/Lara

    Paion GEP2F24

    SiberCore

    Paion GEP2C02

    NetLogic

    Motorola C-5

    Storage processor (TOE, iSCSI, FC)

    BroadCom SB12500

    Agere APP550

    Intel IXP2400

    1G NPU

    Trebia

    MindSpeed CX27470

    AMCC nP7250

    Silverback

    Aristos

    Alacritech

    AMCC nP7120

    Qlogic

    Adaptec

    Intel IXP1200

    Wintegra

    SwitchCore CXE-16

    Galileo GalNet-3


    Market size and market share l.jpg

    [참고] Market Size and Market Share

    [Dataquest, 2002]


    Tcam lookup processor l.jpg

    tCAM Lookup Processor

    • IDT : Current market Leader

      • Major wins for Cisco, Acquiring IBM solution

      • 18Mb & LA-1, 100Msps, TSMC 0.13um, Sampling [2002.9]

      • 250Msps version 18Mb Sample Planned [1Q03]

    • Cypress/Lara : 2nd leader

      • NSE1000/2000 - 18Mb & LA-1, 233Msps, Sample [4Q02]

      • Leverage Ayama technology M&A [Feb. 2002]

    • NetLogic : aggressive performance

      • 18Mb NSE Sample

      • Second-source agreement with Micron[2003.1]

      • Micron pulled out [2003.3]

    • SiberCore : superior

      • 18Mb, 9Mb+LA-1, 288bit search with 50Msps, $250, Sampling [2002.8]

      • Ultra 18Mb Sampling [4Q02]

    • KLSI : Early lead with 4.5Mb

      • 9Mb delaying with competitors shipping 18Mb

      • Retreat from tCAM market at Jan/2003

    • Micron/Music : Losing ground

      • Acquisition of Music - for low-end tCAM, 2002

      • Abandon internal development, Partnership with NetLogic

      • But, Micron pulled out from tCAM market [March 2003]


    Packet classifier l.jpg

    Packet Classifier

    • L4~7 Classification Chip

    • Application for Content Switching, Firewall, Virus scanning, Intrusion Detection


    Security engines l.jpg

    [참고] Security Engines

    • Encryption Engines best suited for IPsec VPN applications

    • Integrated high-speed encryption engine with Network Processor will drive future

    • Gbps IPSec, SSL acceleration

    • Broadcom :

      • BCM5850 current fastest IPsec chip

      • 4.8Gbps IPsec (3DES, SHA-1, AES)

      • PL3 interface to BCM1250 processor

      • 2002 Oct Sample, $520

      • Move toward integrating security chip into other products

    • Cavium NitroxII

      • First flow-through 2~10Gbps IPsec & SSL performance

      • 5Gbps IPsec, 38,000 SSL

      • 2002.4 Sampling, $295~$795

    • HiFn HIPP-3

      • Market leader in security, but lost the technology leader to Cavium, Corrent, and Layer N

      • Single chip (Encryption, Classification)

      • 20Gbps IPsec at 10GbE

      • Flow-through SPI4.2, HT, PCI-X

      • Sample Early 2003

      • Merging Appititude, MeterFlow, into Security processor

        • Deep packet analysis after packets are decrypted

      • 10,000 or more SSL handshaking per second

    • Intel

      • 10Gbps On-chip encryption engine with $245 premium

      • SHA, 3DS, AES for IPsec, SSL application

      • General Sample 2Q03


    Switch fabric l.jpg

    1

    1

    1

    N

    N

    N

    Switch Fabric

    Ingress Queue(VOQ)

    Crossbar

    Egress Queue(OQ)

    • Ingress data when there is no backpressure signal, i.e., queue is not full

    • Each ingress Q requests for cell transfer to Egress port

    • Ingress Request Generation Block generates and send requests to destination ports

    • Grant Generation Block selects one request from ingress ports and grant a transfer

    • Start cell transfer

    1

    1

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    N

    N

    N

    N

    Grant

    Configuration

    Uni/Multicast

    Arbitration

    Flow Control

    Request

    Scheduler


    Switch fabric requirement l.jpg

    Switch Fabric Requirement

    • Switching Bandwidth Increase

      • Single stage 40~80G with 16 or 32 ports (Today)

      • Need 320G+, Terabit Scalability required

      • Shared memory : 80Gbps physical limit?

      • Crossbar : High speed implementation, intelligent scheduling

    • Efficient Scalability

      • Multi-stage architecture is inevitable for 10s of Tbps router - bit-slicing method is limited

      • Performance is a factor of flow control, priority schemes, latency and Non-blocking behavior for Unicast/Multicast/ Broadcast traffic

    • Total Cost of Ownership

      • Number of chips, power consumption, Multi shelf interconnect

      • Low Power high-speed Serial Technology

      • N+K redundancy trade-off is driven by system cost

    • Support for multiple services

      • IP, Ethernet, ATM, TDM


    Market forecast 2000 l.jpg

    [참고] Market Forecast [2000]


    Switch fabric market update 2003 l.jpg

    Switch Fabric Market Update [2003]

    • Market

      • Various analysts projected it to exceed $ 1 billion by 2004, with CAGR 60%

      • Market was too much over forecasted [Gartner Dataquest, 2000]

    • Service Provider Router Market [Synergy Research Group, 2003]

      • But as we enter 2003, telecom continues to be moribund

      • New chassis design launches are important for switch fabric market; switch fabric is one of the first architecture decision point


    Fabric trend update l.jpg

    Fabric Trend Update

    • More system upgrades than new chassis

      • Cap-ex spending is down

      • Design-win momentum slowing

    • Long-term fabric market is healthy

      • Most OEMs using merchant fabric silicon from in-house ASIC

      • New design will start again on 2004 for new box (06)

        • Backbone product design cycle : 6~7 years, last cycle was ’99

      • Volume and prices continue to decline

    • Slowdown forcing consolidation

      • Alliance are critical for success

    • Optimize cost/performance curve

      • Integrated fabric and Traffic Manager

      • Focus shifted from 10G to 1~2.5G application

    • Trend toward standard interface

      • Standard CSIX/SPI allows flexible choice of NPU

      • CSIX-L1 for OC-48, Many options in the spec

      • NPF-SI addressed 10G applications


    Switch fabric players l.jpg

    Switch Fabric Players

    • PMC-Sierra

      • Pulled out Fabric and network processing business

      • But the ace up MPC-Sierra’s sleeve could be microprocessor division

    • IBM

      • 10Gbps to 320Gbps, So far leader in fabric market

      • PowerPRS fabric marketed together with PowerNP network Processor

      • Pulled out Fabric market, Sold to AMCC at $47 million

    • Vitesse

      • Leading incumbent vendors

      • GigaStream offers leading integration and power dissipation at OC-48

      • TeraStream has less competitive feature sets and lags in throughput

    • AMCC

      • Through acquisition, AMCC provides total solutions

      • Latest product, nPX5800, scales to 160Gbps  being cancelled

      • PowerPRS will replace 5800

      • Yuni networks, fills the 640Gbps fabric solution

    • Agere

      • Third generation fabric Pi40, first commercial multi-terabit switch fabric

      • Leading product at throughput of 320Gbps and above

      • With 10Gbps NPU, Agere offers all the major components of router designs

    • Startups

      • Mindspeed, ZettaCom, Erlang, Paion

      • Many a startups pulled out

      • PowerX, TransWarp, PetaSwitch, Tau, TeraBlaze, TeraCross


    Slide40 l.jpg

    Competition Map [Switch Fabric]

    2.5Tbps

    Agere PI40

    80G/2.5Tbps

    Marvell

    • Prestera FX9130

    • 80G/5Tbps

    • 2003

    TeraChip

    • 160G/1.28Tbps

    • 2003

    • 80Gbps(1SF+4QM)

    • 2.5Tbps(32SF+128QM)

    • 2Q02 Sample

    • Agere 0.16um, $1100

    1.2Tbps

    AMCC nPX8005

    TeraCross

    PetaSwitch

    • Glimps 1000

    • 80G/1.2Tbps

    • Intel FAB + IXP2800

    • Pisces 40/1.2Tbps

    • 320Gbps(3chip)

    • Sample 1H02

    • UMC 0.15um

    • 320Gbps(8SF+ 2SC+QM)

    • 640Gbps(16SF+ 4SC+QM)

    • 1.2Tbps(32SF+8SC+QM)

    IBM EQ+

    640Gbps

    PMC TTX

    Broadcom

    ZettaCom

    Internet Machine

    TAU

    • Gemini

    • 40/640Gbps

    • 3Q02

    • 40/640G

    • 40G(1+4)

    • 320G(8+32)

    • 640G(16+64)

    • 3Q02

    320Gbps

    • 80/640G

    PMC ETT1 320Gbps

    IBM Q64G

    160/320Gbps

    Mindspeed iScale

    40/320Gbps

    Erlang

    • 80/640G

    • 40Gbps(1SF+2QM)

    • 320Gbps(8SF+16QM)

    • TSMC 0.18um

    • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM)

    • 320Gbps(8SF+32QM)

    • 1H/02

    160Gbps

    AMCC Npx5800

    20/160Gbps

    Vitesse TeraStream

    80/160Gbps

    • 20Gbps(1SF+ 1QM)

    • 160Gbps(8SF+ 4QM)

    • 80Gbps(2SF+8QM)

    • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM)

    • 2Q/02, CSIX, 16class

    • $1154+$690

    Vitesse GigaStream 20/80Gbps

    Agere PI-X

    20/80Gbps

    80Gbps

    IBM 64G

    40/80Gbps

    • 40Gbps(1SF+ 4QM)

    • 80Gbps(2SF+ 8QM)

    • 1Q/02, Utopia, 8class

    • $240+$400

    Vitesse CS

    32/64Gbps

    AMCC 5500

    20/40Gbps

    • 2Q/01

    2001 2002 2003


    Switch fabric class l.jpg

    Switch Fabric Class


    Fabric architecture comparison l.jpg

    [참고]Fabric Architecture Comparison


    Slide43 l.jpg

    변화와 대안

    Retrospect

    Telco Crash

    생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화

    변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들

    자금시장 변화

    Network 기술 시장 대안

    Network SOC 의 Re-positioning


    Network soc roadmap l.jpg

    Retrospect

    Network SOC Roadmap

    Intelligence (Layer)

    10G+ NPU

    7

    EZchip NP-1

    Intel

    Lexra

    Agere

    AMCC nP7510

    Internet Machines

    Silicon Access

    Clearwater

    Cognigine

    Bay Micro

    Xelerated Packet Device

    EZchip NP-2

    ClearSpeed

    Multi-Service Platform

    2.5G NPU

    Next Generation Mobile Infrastructure

    6

    AMCC nP7250

    Vitesse IQ2200

    MindSpeed CX27470

    BroadCom SB12500

    Giga/Terabit Backbone

    Intelligent and Secure

    Cisco

    GSR12416

    Juniper

    M160

    Charlotte

    Arenea-1

    Lucent

    NX64000

    Avici

    TSR

    Pluris

    Teraplex

    5

    8

    9

    32

    56

    4

    Nexsi 8000

    Alteon 180+

    Arrowpoint CSS1100

    Foundry ServerIron800

    F5 BGP-IP

    Motorola C-5

    IBM Rainier

    Vitesse IQ2000

    IronCore ASIC

    Intel

    CustomASIC

    WebIC

    MMC

    1G NPU

    Metro Ethernet Broadband

    4

    Foundry

    Big Iron 15000 Fast Iron III

    GEP4C04

    Intel IXP1200

    AMCC nP7120

    In-House ASIC

    Riverstone RS38000

    Foundry Fast Iron II+

    Foundry Fast Iron II

    120

    3

    64

    96

    32

    256

    24

    48

    139

    144

    160

    120

    Cisco Catalyst 6513

    Cisco Catalyst 7606

    Intel

    SwitchCore CXE-16

    Extreme Black Diamond 6816

    Cajun P882

    40

    60

    32

    Galileo GalNet-3

    Intel

    BroadCom

    Acute

    Allayer AL1032

    Extreme Black Diamond 6808

    Extreme Alpine 3808 Summit7i

    Riverstone RS8600/ RS16000

    320G SF

    640G SF

    64G SF

    2

    Agere PI40X/C

    PMC-sierra TTX

    IBM PRS-EQ

    Vitesse VSC882

    IBM PRS64G

    MindSpeed CX27302

    Paion GES0032

    AMCC nP8000

    Velio VC2002

    Paion MOSAIC

    PMC-sierra ETT1

    AMCC nP5800

    Power X SX-16

    ZettaCom ZEST-IXS

    32

    64

    128

    256

    512

    8

    16

    4

    Bandwidth (Gbps)

    2001.10.17 전략기술개발사업 기술기획


    Telecom collapse l.jpg

    Telecom Collapse

    • Largest Network equipment buyers

    • Capital spending cut from $116B(00) to $46B(02) :60% drop

    • Telco revenue $197B for voice, $63B for data [2001 US]

    • Carriers spend 15% of revenues on equipment

    • Cut off 500,000 jobs in two years

    • 61 service provider bankruptcies

    • 11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were telecom

      • Total $107B losses

      • $470B of debt $

    • Not going to return to the late 1990s in a near-term recovery

    • New business strategies are required


    Impact l.jpg

    Impact

    • Effects on Vendor

      • DSL, wireless, cable vendors devastated – customers collapsed

      • Components awful – no new design wins

      • Optical very bad – revenues off 80%

      • Core routing bad – revenues off 50%

    • Effects on Financial Market

      • 60,000 jobs lost in investment banking since 1/2001 - no acquisitions or IPOs

      • 2,500 companies were acquired or went public in the 1996-2000 boom

      • Over 10,000 venture-backed private companies now

      • At least 7,500 (75% or more) will run out of money in 2002-2005


    Slide48 l.jpg

    Intel

    Agere

    AMCC

    생태계의 변화

    Motorola

    EZchip

    Silicon Access

    Wintegra

    ZettaCom

    Internet Machines

    Marvell

    Broadcom

    Vitesse

    Zarlink

    Power X


    Slide49 l.jpg

    Market Value Erosion


    Stock market l.jpg

    Stock Market


    Alternative l.jpg

    Alternative

    • Find the bottom

    • Look for a safe niche

    • Hibernate and wait for an upturn

    • Seek government intervention

    • Explore non-US opportunities

    • Proper market & technology

      • Vendors/investors forced to abandon innovative next-generation products

      • Telco spend money to save money, not for new services

      • Go after enterprise market instead?

      • What about consumer/residential market?


    Alternative technology l.jpg

    Alternative Technology ..

    • Still Most Promising

      • Security (SSL/VPNs, firewalls, IDS, identity management, attack mitigation)

      • Wireless (WLANs, roaming, fixed broadband)

      • Storage networks (NAS, SANs migration to Storage networks over IP)

    • Still Must

      • Switching (metro, more VPN “flavors”)

      • Sell to technologically-backward incumbents

      • New SONET and MSPP , softswitches

    • Lagging

      • VoIP (SIP, ENUM, virtual PBX services)

      • Transport (10 Gig Ethernet)

      • Optical (40 Gig SONET/SDH, optical transmission, GMPLS)


    Example fusion of home network and entertainment cluster l.jpg

    Example: Fusion of Home Network and Entertainment Cluster

    • With broadband growth starting to slow, Telco’s are serious about investigating the smart home network segment for value added broadband services -- Residential gateway Integrates cable modem/router/wireless access point

      • Home networking has become a bigger focus of the CE industry

      • Products are emerging to enable connectivity between the home data network and the entertainment cluster at reasonable price point

      • The next wave of interconnectedness between devices will not for basic data/broadband sharing, but instead for the fusion of the PC and entertainment worlds in the form of media center

    • Silicon vendors rush

      • Standard Activity : 802.15

      • Microsoft – the biggest splash with the media center edition of XP

      • Intel – media center reference design and the push to get CE vendors to create a new product category around the media center

      • Motorola - connected home


    Example home networking l.jpg

    Example: Home Networking

    Disk Array

    (Server)

    Home Media Server

    EPON(FTTH)

    Super VDSL

    Metro Ethernet

    CPU

    Optional IPSec SA and SSL Content memory

    UWB

    WiFi

    1394

    UWB

    IEEE1394

    802.11

    PCI

    Billing

    Rate-

    limiting

    EPON

    MAC

    NPU

    Firewall

    Security

    Switching

    FE

    PHY

    802.11 AP

    8 x FE

    System memory


    Example wireless security l.jpg

    802.11 AP

    63 m

    Example: Wireless+Security

    • QoS with guaranteed SLA, Bandwidth rate limiting

      • Application-based flow classification for VoIP and streaming media

      • AP & L3/L4 Load Balancing

    • Wireless Mobility Security

      • Encryption for WEP, TKIP and AES, Kerberos Security

      • VPN(L2TP/IPSec)

      • Wireless Management

    • Serial and Power over Ethernet


    Example wireless mobile coexistence l.jpg

    Internet

    Example: Wireless/Mobile Coexistence

    HLR/VLR

    IWF

    PSTN

    Radio Access Network

    Voice Network

    E1/T1

    MSC: Mobile Switching Center

    BTS 1

    AAA

    E1/T1

    HA

    OAM

    ATM/IP

    Data Network

    E1/T1

    BSC

    Base Station Controller

    Fast Ethernet

    Data Network

    BTS n

    PDSN

    Packet Data Serving Node

    Roaming / Handoff

    Wireless LAN

    802.11 AP

    Metro Ethernet Switch

    Wireless Switch


    Repositioning ethernet switch processor l.jpg

    Repositioning: Ethernet Switch Processor

    • Market

      • GbE switch silicon revenue : $348 million in 2002, $540 million 2004, and $1.063 billion in 2007, 25% CAGR, [IDC, March 2003]

      • Broadcom and Marvell owned 90 percent of the market in 2002, the split was about 60-40, Mostly Fast Ethernet market

      • Sweet-spot : 24/16/8 port

      • Until now, GbE switches were considered to be too expensive for all but enterprise applications. However, GbE-enabled laptops, PCs and network interface cards (NICs) are driving the cost of GbE to all-time lows. This has accelerated the demand for higher bandwidth GbE switch performance across all segments of the market, further increasing volumes and reducing cost.

    • Player

      • Broadcom – announced 24 port and 16 port GbE switch on Sep. 2003, and provides 4-, 5-, and 8-port GbE switch with integrated PHY, General sampling Oct. 2003

      • Marvell – Announced 24 port GbE switch, Prestera-EX242, on Feb., Integrated SERDES with 24 port GbE on Apr. 2003,

      • Vitesse – announced Stapleford(VSC7303) – 24 port GbE switch chip, doing Layer 4 processing on April. 2003, Announced Heathrow-II, 16 port GbE on 2002 Spring

      • Others : Zarlink, Realtek, ADMtek, SwitchCore, Via, Paion

    • Issues

      • Integration up to Layer 3, Filtering. SERDES and PHY consideration in future

      • Cost : < $6~8 / GbE port

      • Power : < 0.2 ~0.25 watt/ GbE port

      • Foundry : 0.13um CMOS process


    Slide58 l.jpg

    Competition Map [Ethernet Switch Processor]

    40/160Gbps

    TeraStream

    24GE

    VSC7303

    (Stapleford)

    20/80Gbps

    16GE

    GigaStream

    VSC7301

    (Heathrow-II)

    VITESSE

    CrossStream

    24GE+

    SERDES

    M&A(Sitera)

    M&A(Exbit)

    Drop(NPU)

    80G~5Tbps

    24GE

    Prestera EX241

    $600

    Prestera EX242

    $200+

    4G+48FE

    MARVELL

    40~640Gbps

    24GE

    M&A(Galileo)

    13GE

    BCM5345

    0.13um

    BROADCOM

    2G+24FE

    BCM5633

    M&A(Allayer, SiByte)

    BCM5615

    2002 2003


    New roadmap l.jpg

    New Roadmap


    Slide61 l.jpg

    SoC 산업의 성공적인미래

    Global Trend

    중국 시장의 부상

    Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry

    제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning

    Trend 읽기 – 문화

    기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당

    교육적인 측면에서


    Global trend l.jpg

    Global Trend

    • FTA 로 인한 경제 글로벌화 가속

      • IT 버블 붕괴, 인력구조조정

      • 일본- 통합화, 미주/유럽-공동개발 Alliance 활발

    • Foundry 산업

      • 12” Fab. 건설비용 25억불, AMD+UMC, STMicro+Philips 합작 추진

      • Infineon  SMIC 투자

    • 차세대표준주도권

      • Core Open Standard화 -ARM, MIPS, SH, TI, StarCore, Trimedia

    • 중화권 급부상

      • 반도체 시장 아시아 비중 증가 (2002년 40%)

      • 아시아 시장의 重要성 대두 - “왜 우리가 한국 등 아시아에 Behind 되고 있는가?”“연방정부가 나서야 한다.” [NGN, Broadband session, 2002]

      • 중국 2005 275억(세계시장의 14%), 미/일본-비중감소

      • 대만 : Foundry-> SoC로 사업확대, Fabless Design House (> 1억$ ) 10개이상

      • 중국 : Foundry 본격진출, 대만에서  중국으로 Foundry 위주로 산업 개편

      • 미국/한국/일본등 - 위기로 대두


    Network eco system l.jpg

    Network EcoSystem

    • 네트워크 생태계의 건강의 중요성 –Otherwise, arteriosclerosis

      • BCN (Broadband Convergence Network) 성공적 로드맵

      • 서비스의 발전, 표준화, 시스템벤더, SoC 의 구현

      • TCO 최적화를 위한 Embedded Software 및 Foundry 발전의 연계

      • SoC 발전을 위한 테스트베드 시스템의 투자

    Bandwidth Service, Culture Creation

    eBay

    AOL

    Yahoo

    Daum

    NHN

    KT

    MCI

    China Telecom

    Revenue Generation, Value Creation, Recovery

    Comcast

    Nortel

    CISCO

    Redback

    End-to-End intelligence, TCO Minimization

    Huawei

    Vitesse

    AMCC

    Broadcom

    Intel

    Silicon cycle out-sourcing, End to End Solution, Market Window

    PMC

    Agere

    Marvell

    Motorola


    Foundry l.jpg

    Foundry

    • Fabrication

      • Downturn – outsourcing strategy from foundry

      • China semiconductor market $16B (02), $31B(06) [Gartner Dataquest]

      • Big 3 – TSMC, UMC, … > $8.4B, 90% total

      • Prospect Foundry sales $25B (07) [Scottsdale IC insights]

    • TSMC

      • $4.6B (02), 28% , 40% market share

      • $2.57B (10th, 1H03) cf. Intel $12.21B (1st, 1H03)

      • 0.18um + 0.18um > 85 % sales

      • Altera, ATI, Motorola, nVidia, Broadcom, TI, Via

    • UMC

      • Fab alliance with AMD

      • Infineon $3.6B partnership

    • IBM

      • Next serious player

      • 6.1% market share, became Rank 4th 3rd, (02)

      • AMD, nVidia, Xilinx, Qualcomm, Broadcom

    • SMIC

      • Cost advantage

      • 300 mm wafer at 0.11um, investment by Infineon

      • Chartered partnership for < 90ns

      • Broadcom, Elpida, Fujitsu, Infineon, Toshiba


    Slide66 l.jpg

    중국

    • 선진국의 돈과 새로운 에너지가 모이는 곳

    • 상해

      • 면적 6000km^2, 1700만

      • 90.4 포동개발 시작, 연평균 20% 

      • 전체 경제 성장율 12%

    • 황하와 천안문사태

    • 연안도시 상해 중점개발, 효과를 몸통(장강) 통해 사천성 (꼬리) 등 내륙까지 미치게 한다는 경제발전 전략

    • 개인적인 견해

      • 미국의 주적으로 부상

      • 10년전 일본에 의한 경제헤게모니로 인한 미국 자존심의 상처는, 10여년후 중국에게서 올 수도

      • 엔지니어로 계속살아 남으려면 중국어를 해야할지도


    Slide67 l.jpg

    북경지역

    텐진

    내륙지역

    상하이 (포동)

    반도체, IT

    저장성

    홍콩


    Education l.jpg

    Education

    • Demand Creation

      • Story, Contents

      • Digital Life – Emotion,Temptation

      • Culture 에 대한 이해

    • Feature vs. Benefit

      • TCP (Target Customer Profile) - 마켓의 소리듣기

      • TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)

    • Engineering Education

      • 안목과 소양

        • 문화와 역사, 인류학

        • 기술정책, 산업전략, 상품화 능력

      • 기술적 능력

        • TechnologyLeadership

        • Technical Marketing

        • 기술의 경쟁적 Positioning

      • 제품화 Mind의 기술개발

        • Product Planning

        • 고객을 공동의 개발자로 생각하라 [시장과 성당 (cathedral and bazaar) ]


    Slide70 l.jpg

    맺음말 - 변화와 위험

    인생에서 가장 큰 위험은 위험을 감수하지 않는 것이다.

    “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself– nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

    Saturday, March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt

    At the time, he was speaking of the crisis that was facing the nation—the “Great Depression.” Today, we reflect on his word, in light of the crisis that now confronts this nation.

    [email protected]


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