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C.Spiering, DESY Oxford, June 19, 2008

The ApPEC/ASPERA Roadmap. C.Spiering, DESY Oxford, June 19, 2008. What is the Universe made of? In particular: What is dark matter ? Do protons have a finite life time ?

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C.Spiering, DESY Oxford, June 19, 2008

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  1. The ApPEC/ASPERA Roadmap C.Spiering, DESY Oxford, June 19, 2008

  2. What is the Universe made of? In particular: What is dark matter? Do protons have a finite life time? What are the properties of neutrinos? What is their role in cosmic evolution? What do neutrinos tell us about the interior of the Sun and the Earth, and about Supernova explosions? What is the origin of cosmic rays? What is the view of the sky at extreme energies? Can we detect gravitational waves? What will they tell us about violent cosmic processes and about the nature of gravity? Questions

  3. Phases of Roadmapping • Phase I: • Roadmap Phase I: science case • Recommendations for convergence • Phase II: • Detailed questionnaires from subfields and agencies. Timelines and updated cost • Amsterdam Meeting 20/21 Sept 2007 • Phase III: • Calendar for milestones and decisions • (Prioritisation, based on different funding scenarios) • Input to ESFRI Roadmap • Roadmap Phase III • Glossy paper for public and policy makers • Brussels Presentation 29/30 Sept 2008 http://www.aspera-eu.org

  4. Dark Matter Searches

  5. 10-4 results from LHC may modify this picture ! Stage 1: Field in Infancy Stage 2: Prepare the instruments Stage 3: Maturity. Rapid progress 10-6 LHC Cross section (pb) 10-8 • Stage 4: • - Understand remaining • background.100 kg scale • Determine best method • for ton-scale detectors Stage 5: Build and operate ton-scale detectors 10-10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

  6. 10-4 results from LHC may modify this picture ! 10-6 We are now here LHC Impact likely not immediatly Cross section (pb) • - Background • Funding • Infrastructure 10-8 10-10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

  7. 2007 Aspera WG requests European Dark Matter projects Underground Infrastructure EURECA (bolometric) ELIXIR (liquid Xe) DAMA-1ton

  8. 2007 Aspera WG requests European Dark Matter projects An annual modulation with high statistical significance (a smoking gun signature for galactic WIMPs) has been observed by the DAMA experiment. In order to prove whether this modulation is due to dark matter particles, it must be confirmed by other experiments. Underground Infrastructure EURECA (bolometric) ELIXIR (liquid Xe) DAMA-1ton

  9. 2007 Aspera WG requests European Dark Matter projects convergence within noble liquid community still poor Underground Infrastructure LUX EURECA (bolometric) XENON DAMA-1ton

  10. Bolometric and noble liquid detectors, with a significant European tradition, have had the largest impact on the field. Current round of experiments based on these technologies, as well as the R&D towards the next generation (mass scale of 1 ton and sensitivity of the order of 10-10 picobarn) should be supported with high priority. Noble Liquid: XENON, LUX, WARP (all with 100 kg versions under construction/preparation), ArDM. Bolometric: EURECA A recommendation which of these technologies should go first ahead to a next stage can only be made after first results from the present generation of experiments (10-100 kg) become available and after background rejection and sensitivity/cost ratio for ton-scale detectors can be judged on a more realistic base. In an optimistic scenario, this milestone can be reached by 2010. Dark Matter

  11. As soon as one of the technologies turns out to be clearly superior in sensitivity, cost, and timing,, we suggest to promote this technology with priority. At the same time, the second technology must be systematically prepared since a possible positive observation of a WIMP-induced nuclear recoil signal by the first method would call a for a prompt, independent confirmation. LHC observations of new particles at the weak scale would similarly provide a very strong incentive towards large-scale direct detection experiments, placing these observations in a well-confined particle physics context. In case of a discovery and for sufficiently large cross-sections, smoking-gun signatures such as directionality and annual variations would be measured on an event-by-event base. Further development of directional detector technologies should therefore be supported. Dark Matter

  12. Properties of Neutrinos

  13. What are the properties of neutrinos ? What is their role in cosmic evolution? Spectrum endpoint and  , oscillations at reactors Soon: KATRIN Soon: Double CHOOZ m 13  2014: ~2 experiments with sensitivity to test inverted hierarchy Majorana vs. Dirac m

  14. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016  decay (slide from 2007) operation bolometric 41 kg 130Te CUORICINO operation CUORE construction bolometric 740 kg 130Te operation tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se NEMO-3 operation Super-NEMO design study construction tracking 100 kg 150Nd/82Se operation GERDA construction 15  35 kg 76Ge

  15. Single beta Decay: KATRIN Double Beta Decay: We give priority to the experiments expected to start operation within the next five years: GERDA (phase I and II), CUORE and SuperNEMO, due to their complementarity. They will scrutinize the claim for evidence in Ge-76, of approaching the inverted hierarchy region and of keeping European leadership in this field. Other methods may become competitive in the future. At the same time, we recommend to envisage the next goal, an experiment on the 1-ton-isotope scale, which will explore the inverted hierarchy region. From today’s perspective, it can be accomplished with two options, both to be realized with a worldwide cost sharing: GERDA-III (together with Majorana, US) and/or CUORE enriched. A major milestone would be the decision on the isotopes/ techniques to be taken by 2013. Neutrino Mass

  16. p p Low Energy Neutrino Astronomy and Proton Decay p

  17. Low energy neutrino astronomy and proton decay (Sun, Supernovae, Earth Interior) Now: Borexino •  2014 (civil engineering): • A very large multi-purpose facility • Options: • - Water Megatonne („MEMPHYS“) • - 100 kton Liquid Argon („GLACIER“) • - 50 kton scintillaton detector („LENA“) Price tag 200-600 M€

  18. Large Multipurpose Facility FP7 design study LAGUNA Price tag: 200-600 M€

  19. Supernova detection In brackets events for a SN at distance 10 kpc Super-Kamiokande (8500) Kamland (330) MiniBooNE (190) LVD (400) Borexino(100) Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk (20) G. Raffelt Amanda(50000) IceCube(106)

  20. Supernova detection In brackets events for a SN at distance 10 kpc Super-Kamiokande (8500) Kamland (330) MiniBooNE (190) LVD (400) Borexino(100) GLACIER100 kt (60 000) LENA50 kt (20 000) MEMPHYS420 kt (200 000) Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk (20) G. Raffelt Amanda(50000) IceCube(106)

  21. Supernova detection In brackets events for a SN at distance 10 kpc • Also: • Solar neutrinos • Geo-neutrinos • Atmospheric neutrinos/indirect DM • LBL accelerator experiments - Sensitivity to proton lifetime improve by order of magnitude Super-Kamiokande (8500) Kamland (330) SNO (800) MiniBooNE (190) LVD (400) Borexino(100) Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk (20) G. Raffelt Amanda(50000) IceCube(106)

  22. The priority project is a new giant underground observatory which has to be global in nature and has to follow worldwide coordination and cost sharing. A common FP7 design study, LAGUNA, is presently underway. It evaluates three detection techniques: water Cherenkov detectors, liquid scintillator detectors and liquid argon imaging detectors. The study will also address the costs of underground infrastructures in several potential locations in Europe. We recommend an additional coherent effort to complete the detector R&D programmes that could not be fully supported within the FP7 Design Study. The design study should provide, on a time scale of 2010, the key elements of the discovery potential for the different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal. LE Nu astronomy & Proton decay

  23. The High Energy Universe

  24. The High Energy Universe Charged cosmic rays, neutrinos, TeV  Data taking: Auger  2010: Auger North  2018: EUSO ?  2012: KM3NeT under construction/data taking: IceCube H.E.S.S., Magic Very Large Array(s) (CTA, ~2012)

  25. High Energy Cosmic Rays

  26. High Energy Cosmic Rays Accumulating exposure high-statistics trans-GZK astronomy 20 000 km² 3000 km²

  27. High Energy Cosmic Rays Summary: ASPERA sum 2008-2018 Clear priority: Auger North Auger North Auger North planning at this point shifted by ~1 year compared to the figure

  28. The priority project of high energy cosmic ray physics is Auger, with its Southern site having provided first indications of cosmic ray astronomy. Trans-GZK physics calls for a substantially larger array than the present Auger South, full sky coverage calls for a Northern site. Since this is a truly global project, we encourage the agencies on different continents to work towards a common path for Auger-North. Given the scientific importance and the achieved cost optimization, we recommend the construction of Auger-North as soon as worldwide agreements allow. HE Cosmic Rays

  29. High Energy Gamma Astronomy 1996: 3 Sources 2006: ~ 40 Sources 2008: ~ 75 Sources

  30. High Energy Gamma Telescopes Since 2 years also VERITAS MAGIC H.E.S.S.

  31. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High Energy Gamma Telescopes European IACT projects operation H.E.S.S. four 11-m telescopes operation H.E.S.S.- II construction + one 25-m telescope operation MAGIC-I one 17-m telescope operation construction 2nd 17-m telescope MAGIC- II ESFRI “emerging proposal” CTA operation design study construction + operation

  32. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High Energy Gamma Telescopes now European IACT projects operation H.E.S.S. four 11-m telescopes operation H.E.S.S.- II + one 25-m telescope construction operation MAGIC-I one 17-m telescope operation 2nd 17-m telescope construction MAGIC- II ESFRI “emerging proposal” CTA ops design study constr + ops

  33. High Energy Gamma Telescopes CTA – Cherenkov Telescope Array

  34. High Energy Gamma Telescopes Clear priority: CTA CTA CTA planning at this point shifted by ~1 year compared to the figure

  35. The priority project of VHE gamma astrophysics is CTA. Based on the enormous scientific harvest of the last decade and a demonstrated technological maturity, with the European projects H.E.S.S. and MAGIC being the leading telescopes. Will probe production mechanisms and propagation of high-energy particles with unprecedented sensitivity, energy coverage, and spatial and temporal resolution, addressing a wide range of topics in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. Is on the ESFRI list of emerging projects and has been proposed as a full ESFRI entry. It is also listed as a priority entry in the ASTRONET infrastructure roadmap. We recommend design and prototyping of CTA and selection of site(s), and proceeding decidedly towards start of deployment in 2012. HE Gamma Astronomy

  36. now 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High Energy Neutrino Telescopes operation AMANDA operation IceCube oonstruction + operation operation NT200, NT200+ ? GVD operat construction + operation design study operation ANTARES construction c + o R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO KM3NeT operat construction + operation FP6 Design Study

  37. 3 2 1 75o 60o 3 0 45o 2 -1 1 30o 0 -2 -1 15o -2 24h 0h -3 AMANDA: Neutrino Skymap AMANDA-II: 2000-2004 (1001 live days) 4282 n from Northern hemisphere No significant excess found

  38. IceCube 50% deployed and taking data  ½ km³  km3 era has started ! Expect unblinded IceCube data from 2006 (22 strings) in a few weeks  equivalent to 7 years Amanda Full Antares has started (0.02 km³)  equivalent to ~2*Amanda (for point sources) Progress in NEMO R&D Conceptual Design Report of KM3NeT …this year

  39. The priority project of high energy neutrino astronomy is KM3NeT. Is on the ESFRI list, has obtained funds for an FP6 design study and has recently started a FP7 Preparatory Phase. It is also listed as a priority entry in the ASTRONET infrastructure roadmap. KM3Net will complement IceCube at the South Pole. Encouraged by the significant technical progress of the last years, the work towards a next generation detector in the Northern hemisphere, KM3NeT, is strongly supported. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled in a single optimized design for a large research infrastructure. The sensitivity of KM3NeT must substantially exceed that of all existing neutrino detectors including IceCube. This has to be achieved within the present budget estimate. HE Neutrino Astronomy

  40. Gravitational Waves

  41. Detection methods • Ground based Interferometers (here: Virgo) 10 Hz – 10 kHz • Resonant antennas: ~ 1 kHz • Space based interferometer (LISA): < mHz - 1 Hz

  42. 3rd Generation ITF FP7 design study • Underground location • Reduce seismic noise • Reduce gravity gradient noise • Low frequency suspensions • Cryogenic • Overall beam tube length ~ 30km • Possibly different geometry E.T.

  43. 0.01-3 3-1000 103-105

  44. Time Chart Likely 1-2 years later

  45. The long-term future project of ground-based gravitational wave astronomy is E.T. With European participation in upgraded versions of LIGO and GEO confirmed, the immediate next step is to fully support, on a very short timescale, the upgrade of the Virgo detector to ‘Advanced Virgo’, thereby ensuring critical infrastructure for commencing gravitational wave astronomy in Europe is in place. We strongly recommend full support for the R&D necessary for the path to E.T. A milestone for a review of enhanced support occurs when Advanced Virgo and Advanced LIGO have commenced full operation – 2014/15, when a first detection is most likely. This is targeted at the initiation of construction for E.T. around 2016/17. Gravitational Waves

  46. Cost

  47. Cost Requests (here without DAMA-1 ton and Frejus new lab)

  48. Cost • without DAMA and new Frejus lab • all projects shifted according to realistic estimates • CTA: 1/3 fron non-Europe • KM3NeT: 200 M€ • Megaton: Europe only 200-300 M€ • DM and DBD shared with US • keep 20% for R&D and new initiatives Auger-North E.T. Neutrino Mass Megaton Dark Matter KM3NeT CTA Existing R&D, new initiatives

  49. Cost • without DAMA and new Frejus lab • all projects shifted according to realistic estimates • CTA: 1/3 fron non-Europe • KM3NeT: 200 M€ • Megaton: Europe only 200-300 M€ • DM and DBD shared with US • keep 20% for R&D and new initiatives Auger-North can do it within a factor ~2 smooth increase over 8-10 years (investment) personnel will increase by less E.T. Neutrino Mass Megaton Dark Matter KM3NeT CTA Existing R&D, new initiatives

  50. ApPEC′s Pleiades Einstein Telescope (LISA) Ton-scale Double Beta Megaton KM3NeT Ton-scale Dark Matter CTA Auger-Nord

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