What Climate Change Means for Sustainable Development

1. What Climate Change Means for Sustainable Development WINSTON H YU, World Bank February 2009

2. Have you watched Al Gore’sAn Inconvenient Truth? • Yes • No

4. What is the largest source ofglobal greenhouse gas emissions? • Industry • Agriculture • Waste • Energy Supply • Transport • Residential • Land Use Change

5. Global Annual GHG Emissions (1970 – 2004) Sources of GHG Emissions (2004)

6. What % of total CO2 emissions(from fossil fuel combustion) was emitted by industrialized countries in 1900 – 1999? • 87% • 79% • 68% • 54%

8. Including land-use change, which country emitted the most per capita in 2000? • Australia • Belize • Canada • Malaysia • United States

9. Top 10 country GHG emissions per capita in 2000

11. What observed changes over the past decadescan be attributed to human factors? • Temperature rise • Increased precipitation • Decreased precipitation • Sea-level rise • All of the above

13. Changes in Precipitation (1900 – 2000)

15. Climate Variability v Climate Change • Two key components: • Long-term climate change (50 + years) • Variability (intra-annual and inter-annual variations) Don’t worry, the climate is not really changing that fast!

16. ? ? ? Challenges with Predicting the Future Global emissions future Climate variables Sectoral response Development and poverty The key is decision-making under uncertainty

17. Long-term mean and variances may change, but short-term variability remains Hydrologic variability presents a key challenge to growth • Example: Distribution of river flow

18. Feb 2009 10,000 BC 1850 1955 1990 2009 2040 2100 climate variability ------- climate change What is the Climate in Climate Resilience? paleoclimate - trends forecast - projections

19. By how many degrees Celsius is the average global temperature projected to rise by the end of this century? • 1°C • 2°C • 3°C • 4°C • Depends

20. Projected Changes in Surface Temperature

22. Projected Impacts of Climate Change

23. Climate change may help increase agricultural productivity in some countries. • True • False

24. Projected Impacts on Crops (wheat, maize, rice) 2020s 2050s 2080s

25. Which regions will most likely be negatively impacted by climate change? • Agriculture-dependant regions near the equator • Poorest regions • Coastal regions • Low-lying islands • All of the above

26. Low Income Middle Income High Income Six Climate Threats: Countries Most at Risk

27. Africa

28. Less rainfall in the Sahel More rainfall in East Africa Africa mean temperatures and annual precipitation have changed over last 100 years Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987

29. Frequency of Extreme Events - One third of African people live in drought prone areas - 220 million are annually exposed to drought - Mozambique 2000 floods - US$ 550 million (1.5% reduction GDP growth) - Kenya 1997/98 floods - $1.8 billion Infrastructure and property damage

30. Climate Change Projections • Temperature: • Expected to increase 2°- 6°C (by the end of this century) with greatest impact over the semi-arid margins of the Sahara and central southern Africa and least in equatorial latitudes and coastal environments. • Precipitation: • Projected future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined.

31. ? ? Historical Rainfall record ? More Rain ? Less Rain The Sahel East Africa Southeast Africa Hulme et al. (2001)

32. Natural 30-year Variability Future is more uncertain about precipitation than temperature Each point represents global future scenario A1, A2, B1, B2 Hulme et al. (2001)

33. Changes in Agriculture Reduction in soil fertility Decreased livestock productivity Increased incidence of pest attacks Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons

34. Increasing Desertification Two thirds of continent is desert or dry-lands

35. Public Health Impacts Vector-borne diseases that are considered to be sensitive to climate change

36. Pressures on Biodiversity Possible species migration Reduction in plant species habitats Impacts on wetland ecosystems

37. Sea Level Rise Sea levels around Africa expected to rise by 15 – 95 cm by the year 2100 Implications for coastal fisheries, saltwater intrusion, migration, coastal flooding

38. Adaptation to Climate Risks • First step: reduce vulnerability by focusing on improved adaptation to existing variability (and extremes) • Crop diversification (e.g. livestock, forestry products) • Modern cultivation methods (e.g. fertilizer techniques, improved seeds, drought resistant crops) • Improved water resources management (national and international) • Improved forecasting and preparedness • Community-based natural resource management • Water harvesting and storage infrastructure • Integrated coastal zone management

39. Adaptation to Climate Risks • Climate vulnerability is exacerbated by (and results in?): • Low per capita GDP • Low life expectancy and high infant mortality rates • Low adaptive capacity • Low literacy • High dependence on natural resource base • Weak governance • Successful economic development and poverty alleviation are important means to reducing vulnerability to climate risks

40. What more can the Bank do? • Support • Build knowledge base: Current poor state of reliable data (spatial and temporal) for climate monitoring • Stronger institutions and management: Current low level of climate expertise in region; build links between research and policy; stronger national and regional institutions for water management and managing risks • Better analysis of regional impacts: Regional climate models for Africa still in development; • With macroeconomic importance of agriculture in Africa, adaptation to climate risks will be critical. • Given growing energy demands, evaluating impacts of long-term change on infrastructure investments • Resilience to changing dynamics with floods and droughts - One response to long-term climate change is to strengthen seasonal rainfall forecasts

41. Most client countries perceive climate change as a(n):_____________ issue. • Environmental • Economic • Political • Social • All of the above

42. The Client’s Perspective on Climate Change • Trade offs with other development needs • Equity if not major GHG emitter • Developing vis-à-vis developed perspective • Technology access and adoption • Capacity and knowledge • Grants versus loans

43. What is the Bank’s role in the climate change issue? • Advocate • Neutral Partner • Bystander • Financing and Knowledge • None of the above • All of the above

44. THANK YOU Winston H Yu (wyu@worldbank.org)