Survey why limited use of ensembles in operations
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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?. Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle [email protected] Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions:

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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR

Dr. Brian A. Colle

[email protected]


Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service.

Survey Questions:

What is your current position? (operational forecaster, manager/admin, researcher, and model developer)

How often do you use ensembles?

Why are ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? Weight each issue from “not a problem” (= 1) to “one of the largest problems” (= 5)

Rank the 8 provided issues from the largest problem to the smallest issue/problem.

Open Ended Question: Other written comments regarding the difficulty in using ensembles in operations.


Survey open from 9 November 2011 to 15 December 2011. Sent to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.

* The results in the following slides are separated into the following sections. Number of responses are in the ( )

All responses (166)

Operational Forecasters (111)

Admin / Managers (37)

Researchers and Model Developers (18)

Forecasters who sometimes or never use ensembles (50)

Forecasters who use ensembles often or always (61)

* For each section above, there are two sets of plots for questions # 3 and 4 to show the average value/rank and another to show the distribution of responses.


Distribution of Responses


How often do you use ensembles?


3 = 32%

2 = 35%

1 = 31%

2 = 36%

Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

Top Median Response Number Also Shown and Percent

2 = 30%

3 = 32%

3 = 31%

3 = 32%


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?


#1 = 23%

#8 = 19%

#8 = 25%

#5 = 19%

Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

Top Median Rank Number Also Shown and Percent

#4 = 19%

#5 = 17%

#6 = 17%

#2 = 32%


Operational Forecaster Results Only


How often do you use ensembles?


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations


Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations


Manager/Admin Results Only


How often do you use ensembles?


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Researcher / Model Developer


How often do you use ensembles?


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations


Operational Forecasterswho sometimes or never look at ensembles


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations


Operational Forecasterswho always or often look at ensembles


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations


Conclusions

Nearly all forecasters use ensembles; however, only ~45% use them “sometimes.”

Each ensemble issue has a large distribution of rankings (some problems were considered major for some and minor for others) – so there are a variety of opinions as illustrated by the open ended questions.

The highest ranked issues are (1) the lack of tool/graphics, (2) ensemble data access, and (3) ensemble training.

For forecasters who “sometimes use ensembles,” it appears that the time to view/interpret ensembles is also an issue (ranked #3). Some of this may be from the lack of good tools and data access as suggested by their open ended questions.

Managers/admin view the issue of time to view/interpret ensembles as the smallest problem on average (ranked #8).

Most or all researchers and model developers use ensembles. They clearly believe that the lack of tool/graphics is the largest issue.


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