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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?. Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle [email protected] Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions:

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Survey why limited use of ensembles in operations

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR

Dr. Brian A. Colle

[email protected]


Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service.

Survey Questions:

What is your current position? (operational forecaster, manager/admin, researcher, and model developer)

How often do you use ensembles?

Why are ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? Weight each issue from “not a problem” (= 1) to “one of the largest problems” (= 5)

Rank the 8 provided issues from the largest problem to the smallest issue/problem.

Open Ended Question: Other written comments regarding the difficulty in using ensembles in operations.


Survey open from 9 November 2011 to 15 December 2011. Sent to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.

* The results in the following slides are separated into the following sections. Number of responses are in the ( )

All responses (166)

Operational Forecasters (111)

Admin / Managers (37)

Researchers and Model Developers (18)

Forecasters who sometimes or never use ensembles (50)

Forecasters who use ensembles often or always (61)

* For each section above, there are two sets of plots for questions # 3 and 4 to show the average value/rank and another to show the distribution of responses.


Distribution of responses

Distribution of Responses to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.


How often do you use ensembles

How often do you use ensembles? to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.


3 = 32% to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.

2 = 35%

1 = 31%

2 = 36%

Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

Top Median Response Number Also Shown and Percent

2 = 30%

3 = 32%

3 = 31%

3 = 32%



#1 = 23% be?

#8 = 19%

#8 = 25%

#5 = 19%

Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

Top Median Rank Number Also Shown and Percent

#4 = 19%

#5 = 17%

#6 = 17%

#2 = 32%




Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)






Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)




Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)



Operational forecasters who sometimes or never look at ensembles

Operational Forecasters usage in operationswho sometimes or never look at ensembles


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)



Operational forecasters who always or often look at ensembles

Operational Forecasters usage in operationswho always or often look at ensembles


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)


Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)



Conclusions

Conclusions usage in operations

Nearly all forecasters use ensembles; however, only ~45% use them “sometimes.”

Each ensemble issue has a large distribution of rankings (some problems were considered major for some and minor for others) – so there are a variety of opinions as illustrated by the open ended questions.

The highest ranked issues are (1) the lack of tool/graphics, (2) ensemble data access, and (3) ensemble training.

For forecasters who “sometimes use ensembles,” it appears that the time to view/interpret ensembles is also an issue (ranked #3). Some of this may be from the lack of good tools and data access as suggested by their open ended questions.

Managers/admin view the issue of time to view/interpret ensembles as the smallest problem on average (ranked #8).

Most or all researchers and model developers use ensembles. They clearly believe that the lack of tool/graphics is the largest issue.


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