The Roadmap towards the development of the Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction (HFA2)
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The Roadmap towards the development of the Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction (HFA2) 25 June 2014. Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015. HFA Expected Outcome

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Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015

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Hyogo framework for action 2005 2015

The Roadmap towards the development of the Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction (HFA2)25 June 2014


Hyogo framework for action 2005 2015

Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015

HFA Expected Outcome

“The substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.”


Reality check 1

Reality Check 1

Mortality is decreasing, but

economic losses are

increasing.


More people exposed to hazards

…more people exposed to hazards…

Human exposure to tropical cyclone is increasing for most sub-regions


And typhoons are getting stronger

…and typhoons are getting stronger…

The number of recorded categories 4 and 5 typhoons increasing


However mortality risks are decreasing less people are dying

… however, mortality risks are decreasing – less people are dying!

Cyclone - Relative mortality risk trend

For hydro-meteorological hazards, mortality risks are decreasing for some sub-regions


Economic losses increasing

Economic losses increasing…


Losses in high and upper middle income countries larger

…losses in high and upper-middle income countries larger…

Development was unable to reduce risks, and may drive its growth


Reality check 11

Reality Check 1

Mortality is decreasing, but

economic losses are

increasing.


Reality check 2

Reality Check 2

Risks are not externalities to development. Mal development makes climate change deadlier.


Hyogo framework for action 2005 2015

The Philippines has one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia. The population is set to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes the combination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the economy to become the world’s 16th largest by 2050. That would mark a jump of 27 places from its current ranking of 43. HSBC “ The World in 2050”

Economic growth drives…


Increasing exposure of people

…increasing exposure of people…

Urban growth in Metro Manila


Hyogo framework for action 2005 2015

  • 49 million houses and USD 10 trillion property exposed

  • In addition, 1,355 building permits are issued per day

…increasing economic exposure…


Creating a large unfunded disaster liability

...creating a large unfunded disaster liability…

Annual expected loss due to disasters, as % of GDP (source: WB)

Indonesia’s budget on disaster risk reduction


Leading to increased economic loss due to exposure growth

...leading to increased economic loss due to exposure growth...

  • Climate change alone will likely double worldwide losses by 2100

  • Catastrophe losses will likely double every 10 years due to increases in construction costs, the number of structures and changes in their characteristics –exclusive of any effect of climate change

    Source: AIR Worldwide


Hyogo framework for action 2005 2015

...exacerbated by climate change.

Building code in Philippines = 150 kph design wind speed

Typhoon Haiyan = 300 kph sustained wind speed, gusts up to 370 kph


Reality check 21

Reality Check 2

Risks are not externalities to development. Mal development makes climate change deadlier.


Hfa2 challenges

HFA2 Challenges

  • Preventing the creation of new risk by the adoption of risk-informed growth and development pathways that minimise increase in exposure and vulnerability.

  • Reducing existing risk by actions that address and reduce exposure and vulnerability.

  • Strengthen resilience by socio and economic measures that enable countries and people to absorb loss, minimise impact and recover.


Hfa2 opportunities

HFA2 Opportunities

  • Influence the development of new frameworks, regulations and incentives

  • Preventing the creation of new risk – encode risks in new investment decisions.

  • Reducing existing risk – promote investments that will reduce vulnerability to address huge stocks of risks.

  • Strengthen resilience – promote wider coverage of risk insurance.


2015 roadmap

2015 Roadmap

  • UNSG Climate Summit – September 2014, NY

  • World Conference on DRR – Disaster risk management agenda - March 2015, Sendai

  • UN General Assembly – Sustainable development and growth agenda – September 2015, NY

  • Climate Change Conference of Parties Meeting Climate change agenda – December 2015, Paris


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