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Agenda. Project overview (brief) Modeling update (preliminary results) Next steps… Integration pathways . Modeling status update: 11/13/2012. Domain: catchments with range of MPB and dust impacts; varying hydro-climatology, . Distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). Fish Cr.

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Agenda
Agenda

  • Project overview (brief)

  • Modeling update (preliminary results)

  • Next steps…

  • Integration pathways


Modeling status update 11 13 2012
Modeling status update: 11/13/2012

Domain: catchments with range of MPB and dust impacts; varying hydro-climatology,

Distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM)

Fish Cr.

Boulder Cr.

Snake R.

Uncompaghre R.

Painter et al., 2010

Land-cover, meteorology, and desert dust

Explore hydrologic impacts and sensitivities

Q (m3/s)

Month

Discharge (Q) magnitude and timing

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

www.nsf.org


Current modeling status
Current modeling status

  • Snake R. set-up complete – other (3) river basins nearly ready…

  • Local precip./temperature still open issues; Spatial improvements in cold-season precip. from Molotch et al. (SWE recon.).

  • **Preliminary** sensitivities complete

  • Calibrations hinge upon resolving precip./temperature issues… (examining individual years)


Modeling system

Relevant Details:

Dust-on-snow: Observation-based dust loading/snow albedo scenarios

MPB: Satellite derived LAI-change

MPB: Vegetation classification

100 m spatial resolution

-Courtesy Jeff Deems


Example snake r

500m MODIS satellite imagery (2002-2011)

Example: Snake R.

  • Flows into Dillon Reservoir – Denver Water

  • Changes in leaf-area index (LAI) used to characterize beetle kill

  • Explore ‘end-points’, 2000 - 2011

Max. LAI: 2003

Snake R.

MPB Scenario: Apply maximum MPB impact to Evergreen areas, reducing canopy LAI

Dust scenarios: Alter modeled snow albedos based on observed dust impacts.

Max. LAI: 2006

-Courtesy Brian Buma

-Courtesy Jeff Deems



Model results snake r
Model Results: Snake R.

  • Considerable increase in spatial detail when using Molotch et al. SWE reconstruction to distribute winter precip (versus PRISM).

PRISM

Molotch et al. SWE recon. Cold season precip distribution

SWE 1 Apr., 2005

SWE 1 Apr., 2005

SWE (m)

SWE (m)


Model results snake r1
Model Results: Snake R.

  • MPB leads to higher accumulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

  • Considerable variation between wet and dry years (not shown)

CONTROL: Moderate dust, no beetle impact

Scenario: Maximum MPB impact

Residual

Avg. SWE 1 Apr.

Difference Map

Avg. SWE 1 Apr.

SWE change (m)

SWE (m)

SWE (m)

More

Less


Relative model sensitivities
Relative model sensitivities

  • Dust enhances snowmelt

  • Opposing effect of MPB on SWE, non-uniform, asynchronous…

Photo: Chris Landry

www.denverpost.org

Relative dust impacts

Combined MPB & Dust

Relative MPB impacts

WY2006

WY2006

WY2006

Low

Moderate

Extreme

Low & Full MPB

Moderate

Extreme & Full MPB

None

Full MPB

SWE (mm)

Month

Month

Month


Preliminary model streamflow results
Preliminary Model Streamflow Results

  • Changes in melt rate control peak runoff timing and magnitude (dust)

  • MPB impacts also affect warm-season flow (reduced evapotranspiration)

Averaged 2000-2011 water years

Averaged 2000-2011 water years

Averaged 2000-2011 water years

Combined MPB & Dust

Relative dust impacts

Relative MPB impacts

Low & Full MPB

Moderate

Extreme & Full MPB

Low

Moderate

Extreme

None

Full MPB

Discharge @ Montezuma (m3/s)

Month

Month

Month

+11.6%

+9.1%

+9.9%

+1.8%

+1.1%

Water Yield (ac-ft/year)

Water Yield (ac-ft/year)

Water Yield (ac-ft/year)


Preliminary conclusions
Preliminary Conclusions

  • Dust-on-snow enhances snowmelt, causing earlier peak streamflow

  • MPB leads to higher SWE accumulation

  • Model sensitivities from Snake R. show reduction of canopy cover increases water yield on the order of 10%

  • Work in progress – compare other 3 basin responses, incorporate satellite-based MPB propagation patterns, greater spatial extents

  • Potential points of integration with CBRFC:

    • Adjust melt factors?

    • Adjust ET demand?


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