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A changing labour market and the future of VET

A changing labour market and the future of VET. Tom Karmel Centre for the Economics of Education and Training 14 th Annual National Conference 29 October, Melbourne. Employed persons by highest qualification, 1996 and 2006. Occupation categories by definitions.

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A changing labour market and the future of VET

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  1. A changing labour market and the future of VET Tom KarmelCentre for the Economics of Education and Training 14th Annual National Conference 29 October, Melbourne

  2. Employed persons by highest qualification, 1996 and 2006

  3. Occupation categories by definitions

  4. Number of occupations by skills categories, 1996 and 2006

  5. Number of occupations by skills categories by age, 2006

  6. Occupations within the professional (uni) group for 25-34 year olds but not 55-64 year olds

  7. Occupations within the professional (tertiary) group for 25-34 year olds but not 55-64 year olds

  8. Creating a skills index for occupations • Based on a latent trait with a normal distribution • Impute: • Higher degree=2.081 • Degree= 1.316 • Diploma=0.6271 • Cert III/IV=0.2505 • Other cert=-0.0215 • No qual=-.7150

  9. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  10. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  11. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  12. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  13. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  14. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  15. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  16. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  17. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  18. Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

  19. Implications for VET • What is VET?

  20. Possible types of tertiary institutions • The research university • The omni-university • The polytechnic • The residual TAFE

  21. Thank you

  22. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  23. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  24. Employed persons by highest qualification, 1996 and 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated

  25. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  26. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  27. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  28. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  29. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  30. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  31. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  32. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  33. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  34. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  35. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  36. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  37. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  38. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  39. Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

  40. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

  41. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

  42. Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

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