Inflection Points and Polar Bears

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# Inflection Points and Polar Bears - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Inflection Points and Polar Bears. Jason Hamilton Thomas J. Pfaff. Glacier Pair Images. http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf. A Look at Global Temperature . T(x)=0.0005x 2 -0.00527x+57.137 F T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year x years after 1950

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### Inflection Points and Polar Bears

Jason Hamilton

Thomas J. Pfaff

Glacier Pair Images
• http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf
A Look at Global Temperature

T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00527x+57.137 F

T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year

x years after 1950

• T(58)= 58.51 F and T’(58)=0.0528 F/year
• In 2008 the average global temperature was 58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year.

The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.

-March 2006

Temperature Predictions
• T(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 F
• The model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000.

More Temperature Predictions
• Using T’(58)=.0528 F/year
• If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively.
Summary of Sea Ice
• 1980
• Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59
• Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79
• Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44
• Melt Period: 6.20 months
• 2008
• Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26
• Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80
• Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77
• Melt Period: 6.54 months
Who Cares?

D Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere

• Air Temperature & D Water Temperature

D Ice

DIce
• Spatial Extent?
• Thickness?
• Timing of thaw?
• Timing of re-freeze?
• Ice characteristics?

January

Males

Freeze

Grow

March

Sept

Shrink

Thaw

June

Females

January

Cubs

Freeze

Leave den

March

Sept

Mate

Den

Thaw

June

Questions?

Partly supported by NSF DUE-0837721