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Inflection Points and Polar Bears

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Inflection Points and Polar Bears

Jason Hamilton

Thomas J. Pfaff

- http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf

T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00527x+57.137 F

T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year

x years after 1950

- T(58)= 58.51 F and T’(58)=0.0528 F/year
- In 2008 the average global temperature was 58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year.
- Now Ask a Question About This-

The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.

-March 2006

- T(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 F
- The model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000.
–Now Ask a Question About This-

- Using T’(58)=.0528 F/year
- If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively.

- 1980
- Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59
- Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79
- Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44
- Melt Period: 6.20 months

- 2008
- Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26
- Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80
- Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77
- Melt Period: 6.54 months

D Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere

- Air Temperature & D Water Temperature

D Ice

- Spatial Extent?
- Thickness?
- Timing of thaw?
- Timing of re-freeze?
- Ice characteristics?

January

Males

Freeze

Grow

March

Sept

Shrink

Thaw

June

Females

January

Cubs

Freeze

Leave den

March

Sept

Mate

Den

Thaw

June

?

- Jason:jhamilton@ithaca.edu
- Tom: tpfaff@ithaca.edu
Partly supported by NSF DUE-0837721