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Estimating future demand for shipping

Demand for shipping. Transport demand (tenm) = Mass transported (te) x Distance transported (nm)BTM is a abbreviation for Billion Tonne Nautical Mile (1e6 tenm) and used to describe shipping activity or some portion of transport workMT is an abbreviation for Million Tonne (1e6 te) and used to d

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Estimating future demand for shipping

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    1. Estimating future demand for shipping Volumetric or Transport work Seaborne trade in MT or Shipping activity in BTM

    2. Demand for shipping

    3. Different estimates for GDP This shows the variation in the underlying variable (i.e GDP) being so uncertain, therefore leading to similar uncertainty for demand in shipping in BTM. Co2 will consequently be varying in higher magnitude. This shows the variation in the underlying variable (i.e GDP) being so uncertain, therefore leading to similar uncertainty for demand in shipping in BTM. Co2 will consequently be varying in higher magnitude.

    4. GDP and Billion Tonne miles (BTM) 1990 2008 data series World total GDP and total BTM There exists a very strong relationship between the two variables R2 0.97, leaving only 3% of BTM unexplained 1990 2008 data series World total GDP and total BTM There exists a very strong relationship between the two variables R2 0.97, leaving only 3% of BTM unexplained

    5. GDP and BTM - Disaggregated

    6. Future growth using GDP and BTM relationship 6 fold increase in shipping activity from 2010 to 2050 Compare that to 150-200% growth in emissions A1B scenario other studies use, easy to compare and validate results6 fold increase in shipping activity from 2010 to 2050 Compare that to 150-200% growth in emissions A1B scenario other studies use, easy to compare and validate results

    7. Historic relationship between GDP, BTM and MT

    8. GDP and Million Tonne (MT)

    9. Other regressions have been done with seaborne trade and population, land area but only result in few % of seaborne trade explained Other regressions have been done with seaborne trade and population, land area but only result in few % of seaborne trade explained

    10. Future growth using MT and GDP relationship

    11. Converting MT to BTM

    12. Average haul

    13. Comparing A1B scenario BTM with OPRF A1B Validation Validation

    14. IMO estimates of BTM index

    15. Comparions with Eyring et al

    16. Comparing with OPRF A1B Scenario

    17. Multi phase methodology

    18. Stakeholder survey

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