INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ON ADAPTATION: Progress and Prospects

1. INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ON ADAPTATION:Progress and Prospects Ian Burton Co-Chair OEP-CCA In collaboration with Thea Dickinson and Burton Dickinson Consulting Ltd.

2. TOPICS • 3 Messages; 2 Questions • The Broad Tent • The UNFCCC • Tuvalu and Bangladesh • International funding? Financial needs? • Copenhagen Agreement at COP 15. December 2009 • European Adaptation Plans • United Kingdom • Canada and the Provinces • Integration • 3 messages; 2 questions

3. 3 Messages, 2 Questions • M1. Climate Change Adaptation has lagged far behind mitigation • M2. Adaptation is not only a local issue: it has national strategic and international policy dimensions. • M3. Fragmentary, isolated initiatives can be useful but a strategic and integrated approach is needed. • Q1. How much can adaptation achieve? What will it cost? Benefit streams? Who pays? • Q2. What is an integrated and strategic approach? What are the links to sustainability?

4. The Big Tent • All sectors: • Agriculture, Forests, Fisheries, Water, Health, Infrastructure, Insurance, Business and Commerce; due diligence, liability? • Many Risks: • Floods, Droughts, Tropical cyclones, Sea level rise; progressive desiccation • All levels of government; The private sector and civil society

5. The UNFCCC: Convention Framework • Climate Change = A Pollution Problem = Mitigate • But also adaptation (afterthought) • Mitigate now (KYOTO) • Adapt Later (But help the vulnerable where necessary) • Priority for adaptation: Small Island States; Least Developed and most Vulnerable Countries; all Developing Countries; European Countries; the Rest.

6. Tuvalu • World’s 4th smallest country • Population of 11,305 • Made up of four reefs and five atolls • Stretches over 680 kilometres • The sea level rise predicted to occur as a result of climate change would make Tuvalu uninhabitable. • Solution proposed: Adaptation – Migration! • Relocate the population of Tuvalu to New Zealand • New Zealand agreeing to accept 75 evacuees annually.

7. Bangladesh • Built over the flood plains of four major rivers: the Brahmaputra, Meghna, Wange and Ganges Rivers. • Total population is over 150 Million • Threat of sea level rise, and cyclones and floods • Impossible for many to adapt in place and • Therefore – migrate inland or to India or to sea • Over 10 million refugees - perhaps 20, or more • New term: “Climate Refugees” • International implications

8. International Funding? • Agree to help the most vulnerable countries to meet costs of climate change adaptation. • Establishment of Global Environmental Facility (GEF), Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), ~$500 million total voluntary contributions so far.

9. International Needs: Developing Countries • Rough estimates in the order of several tens of billions of dollars annually, and increasing • New estimates of costs being made by World Bank and others • Questions: • Fund expansion • Polluter pays principle • Liability? Equity? • Sources and management of funds?

10. European Countries • Over 15 European Countries are in process or have implemented a National Adaptation Strategy • These include: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The United Kingdom • Financial support primarily from governments in the range of hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions of dollars (100K to > than 100M). Funding structures differ widely: whole strategy; in phases; by years; or by sectors

11. UK’s Climate Change Bill • The UK is introducing a long-term legally binding framework to tackle climate change. • Introduced in Parliament on November 14th, 2007 with the aim to receive Royal Assent by autumn 2008. • Bill aims to achieve mandatory 60% cut in the UK's carbon emissions by 2050 (vs 1990), with an intermediate target of between 26% and 32% by 2020. If approved, the UK will become first country to set such a long-range requirement in law.

12. UK’s CC Bill – Adaptation Included • UK wide climate change risk assessment every 5years • A national adaptation programme in place and reviewed • Government to require companies (utilities) to report how they assessed and will address CC risks • Government to provide guidance on how to undertake a climate risk assessment and draw up an adaptation action plan • Creation of an Adaptation Sub-Committee of the independent Committee on Climate Change to oversee progress

13. Canada and the Provinces • Federal facilitative approach • Provinces now beginning to act on adaptation • Piecemeal approach • No Federal Plan, Framework or Strategy • Provinces acting separately except some progress under COF • Municipalities beginning to act

14. Integration • Need for a more integrated approach. • Local and Provincial initiatives needed, but not sufficient by themselves. • Too much subsidiarity? • Think (for agriculture, for example) of adaptive capacity, risks and opportunities, trade implications, links to mitigation, research and development, international responsibilities….

15. 3 Messages, 2 Questions • M1. Climate Change Adaptation has lagged far behind mitigation • M2. Adaptation is not only a local issue: national strategic and international policy dimensions. • M3. Fragmentary, isolated initiatives can be useful but a strategic and integrated approach is needed. • Q1. How much can adaptation achieve? What will it cost? Benefit streams? Who pays? • Q2. What is an integrated and strategic approach? What are the links to sustainability?

16. Next Steps? • Canada has a great capacity to adapt to climate change over the coming decades • Up to a certain level of climate change (+2 degrees?) Canada can even be a net beneficiary. • Adapt and Thrive! • How do we ensure that this happens and that we play a responsible role in global climate negotiations? • Meetings like this are among the first steps. • Much more is needed now.

17. Thank You!