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Future Trends in Software Cost Modeling

Future Trends in Software Cost Modeling. Betsy Clark Software Metrics Inc. Future Trends, Emerging Technologies, Accelerators and Inhibitors. Parametric models take a long time to do well Need a well-understood domain Need a reasonably consistent set of development processes

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Future Trends in Software Cost Modeling

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  1. Future Trends in Software Cost Modeling Betsy Clark Software Metrics Inc.

  2. Future Trends, Emerging Technologies, Accelerators and Inhibitors • Parametric models take a long time to do well • Need a well-understood domain • Need a reasonably consistent set of development processes • Choosing parameters and developing scales takes a long time • Gathering consistent data for calibration takes a long time • End up playing “catch up” with new development technologies

  3. Future Trends • The arena of software development is becoming more dynamic and distributed • Entry into the software marketplace is easier • The cost of entry into programming used to be huge • Computer mainframes cost millions • Programming languages were difficult or arcane • Only large companies could afford the equipment and training for software development • Cheap desktop computers, open source tools and languages make it possible for anyone to become a software developer and for any company to enter the software product market place • Premium on rapid development, time-to-market

  4. Challenges for Parametric Models • Parametric models require a recognizable, repeatable pattern of development • With new development technologies, there are more different and changing ways (patterns) of developing software • COCOTS experience: Development patterns tend to be local • These patterns can change rapidly • Centralized parametric model development does not keep pace with these changes

  5. An Analogy - Large Central Film Studios versus YouTube • The days of the big, centralized film and music recording studios may be diminishing…. • Everyone can be their own movie maker or record label • see YouTube.com • Perhaps model development needs to become more distributed as well • Individuals understand their local environment • In addition to developing centralized “big-gun” cost estimation models (models that can account for anything), what about encouraging people to develop models locally and then share those results? • Not the underlying data but their model

  6. “Mayfly” Models • Agile, adaptable, flexible, localized and short-lived • Challenge in the future is to develop a framework for developing models quickly and then teach that framework to software engineers • (Brad says he would love to do this!) • There could be different modeling approaches for different segments of software engineering: • Parametric models for large scale development, e.g. FCS • There will continue to be a need for these types of models • Mayfly models for dynamic, changing development technologies Future Directions

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