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Nuclear Options: The Global Outlook

Nuclear Options: The Global Outlook. Ed Lyons. OVERVIEW/RELEVANCE. Correlation of Electricity consumption and Economic Expansion Renewable sources of electricity Coal Gas Define nuclear power Pros of Nuclear Power Cons of Nuclear Power China (Germany and Japan) Conclusions Outlook.

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Nuclear Options: The Global Outlook

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  1. Nuclear Options: The Global Outlook Ed Lyons

  2. OVERVIEW/RELEVANCE • Correlation of Electricity consumption and Economic Expansion • Renewable sources of electricity • Coal • Gas • Define nuclear power • Pros of Nuclear Power • Cons of Nuclear Power • China (Germany and Japan) • Conclusions • Outlook

  3. Global Energy Use 1980 to 2030 ALL ENERGY SOURCES

  4. ELECTRICITY DRIVERS • Population, economic growth • Manufacturing and service mix • Technology • Financial incentives • Sources – type and location • Environmental concerns • Roles of governments: controls, political, financial & legal • Costs • Reliability • Security • Grid

  5. Relationship: ENERGY & ECONOMIC GROWTH

  6. CORRELATION (varies by country) • US POPULATION and Electricity Consumption – stable in developed world • US GDP and Energy Usage: • ELECTRICITY • Reduced manufacturing as % of GDP • Efficiency/productivity of manufacturing • Appliance - cost of running a refrigerator was cut in half 1978 to 1994(PG&E.com) • Energy-efficient lighting and occupancy sensors, variable-speed drives, and low-flow water fixtures, HVAC. . • Energy management – costs, consumption, efficiency and environmental impact monitored in real time (manage not only measure) • Energy Star programs – industry • ISO 50001 – sustainability/energy management standard • Vehicles: HV, PEVs, fuel cells Developing countries and electricity consumption

  7. ONE EXAMPLE: 1600 Lumens • Incandescent Bulb • 100 watts • 750 hours • Price = $0.37 • LED Bulb • 20 watts • 20,000 hours • Price = $45

  8. ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES • Carbon emissions - 2009 the world global electricity generators emitted about 9 billion tons of CO2; industrial 30 billion tons • Climate change - 2010 UN estimate to limit global warming to less than 2°C, CO2 emissions should be reduced to 44 billion tonnes by 2020 • Global fossil fuel emissions increased by 5.9 per cent in 2010 and by 49 per cent since 1990 – the reference year for the Kyoto protocol. • Mining – coal, oil, gas, fracturing - safety • 1% reduction of coal equates to more than 40 million megawatt hours of generation that has to come from another source. • Deforestation • Water • Ethanol - food alternative

  9. NON-NUCLEAR OPTIONS Regional Differences • 53% of Americans support "a moratorium on new nuclear reactor construction in the United States," if "increased energy efficiency and off the shelf renewable technologies could meet our energy demands for the near term." • Renewable sources • Hydro - Wind - Geothermal -Bio-fuels • Biomass - Wave/heat pump - Solar • Oil • Gas – shale gas • Clean coal

  10. RENEWABLE ENERGY

  11. LARGEST HYDRO PRODUCERS

  12. HYDRO • Most common form of renewable energy • Majority of the internal electric energy production is from hydroelectric power: Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Paraguay, Austria, Switzerland, Venezuela • Multiple planned/under construction: China, India, Brazil • Other: Vietnam, Venezuela, Russia, Burma • Agra transmission project $1.1 bil. transmission from NE India to Agra • Concerns: • Environmental • Political • Capital • Security • Relocation • Opportunities – limited, reduced share of total electricity

  13. SOLAR • Drivers: • Cost of alternative energy • Environmental • Government incentives/guarantees • Rapid depreciation • US v China PV trade dispute • China ~50% market share solar cell production • China produced 11.5 GW of PV in 2011 • Shutdowns: • SOLON Photovoltaik GmbH, SOLON Nord GmbH and SOLON Investments GmbH • BP Solar shuttered its module facility in Maryland, Solyndra, Evergreen Solar, SpectraWatt

  14. SOLAR SUCCESSES • Prices for solar modules fell 70% 2009 to today (1). • Worldwide market $80 bil. solar photovoltaic systems . • BP solar cell/module JV in India with Tata Power (125MW) • Google/KKR investing $94 mil. in 4 solar farms • Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC)12 MW Anahola Solar Facility will include an integrated battery energy-storage system • a 2.6 MW PV Boeing's 787 assembly facility -18,000 thin-film PV solar modules that cover 10 acres of the building's roof

  15. SOLAR TECHNOLOGY • “ average cost of installing a solar system on a typical home is $6.50 per watt, or $32,500. “ GE’s goal $4.00 to $4.50/W(1) • Rapid changes: • Cost decreases • Thin film cadmium telluride vs crystalline silicon • Printed circuits • MIT – ‘suntrap’ of thin (0.75 µ) tungsten with microscopic pits laminated to a indium gallium arsenide • Anticipate consolidation • Challenge - installation costs • Excellent conversion efficiency of 23.3% on interdigitated back-contact (IBC) silicon solar cells. • OPINION: significant changes in technology – efficiency, materials, costs • Significant growth

  16. WIND POWER

  17. WIND TRENDS • U.S.: bonus tax depreciation (expiring) and Section 1603 cash-grant programs • US long-term growth of the wind power?? • U.S. and European bearish macroeconomic conditions • Logistics • China: 5 GW by 2015 and 30 GW by 2020 (2). Ambitious! • India - possible expiration of the accelerated-depreciation scheme • OPINON: Offshore wind - growth 32% (CAGR) from 2010 to 2016 (2). Pull back on-shore

  18. ENERGY STORAGE • Renewables challenge • Energy-storage devices; • dielectric and double-layer capacitors — entail serious limitations – capacitance versus fabrication costs • ultracapacitors, flywheels and fuel cells • Opportunity - highly polarizable membrane is simple, readily scalable, and of low fabrication cost. • Earth Techling - 20-year service life of the iron-phosphate batteries suitable for utility-scale load leveling application • OPINION: No clear solution • Wave and geothermal options • Location – transmission loss

  19. BOTTOM LINE - RENEWABLES • Global energy demand - increase by 50% by 2030 (CAGR of 3%) • Developing world • Pew'’s research indicates that in 2010, world investment in the clean energy sector increased to $243 billion, representing a 30-percent growth rate over the previous year. • Renewable energy to 15% from 10% - maintain share • Renewable energy will NOT meet the growing energy demand • If not renewable sources - what?

  20. OIL AND GAS TRENDS • Oil NOT a major source of electricity • Price of oil: if $100/barrel or $200 – renewables • Peak production 2020 (R. Watson) • The Deepwater Reserves : 7MBD, 8% of world’s supply (oil and gas) - Gulf of Mexico, off coasts of Brazil, Australia, India, west coast of Africa. • But only ~ 10% deepwater oil and gas fields have been extensively explored and drilled. • Cost factor • Environmental concerns • Canadian tar sand - more than 1.5 MBD • Shale • OPINION: oil not significant change; gas sharp volume increase

  21. SHALE GAS • Between 2010 and 2035 shale gas development - $1.9 trillion in capital (IHS Global Insight) (1) • Shale and other tight rocks. • - Price of natural gas has plummeted, . • - Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking (water, sand and chemicals at high pressures to fracture hard rock) used for decades. Combining that practice with horizontal drilling • US – 4.9 trillion cu.ft. in 2011 (12X the 2000 level) • Shale gas - 25% of gas; 50% by 2035(2) • Issues??: groundwater contamination; methane leakage, earth tremors (3) • OPINION: significant growth prospects – less reliant on oil

  22. ost coal-fired electric capacity was built before 1980

  23. COAL: TRENDS &OPPORTUNITIES • ~50% of electricity generation • China's electricity 80% from coal, 2% from oil, 1% gas and hydropower 15% in 2006 – today + • Extensive reserves • Shutter or replace older plants • Comply with environmental regs. (mercury, particulate, NOX & SOX-acid rain) • ‘Clean Coal’ initiatives • Gasification of coal • OPINION: FUTURE?

  24. COAL - Sierra Club

  25. NUCLEAR BEGINNING US Atomic Energy Act of 1954 commercial nuclear power US’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission was created in 1975 Global: today 443 reactors Safety record in 2030?

  26. AFTERMATH of Fukushima • Japan? • Switzerland will shutdown all 5 of its plants by 2032. • 39 percent of Switzerland's power • Germany-shutdown: 17 nuclear plants (23 reactors); 8 are closed, 6 closed by 2021, and 3 by 2022 • Nuclear power currently 25%of Germany's power • Electricity costs in Germany? 6%/year next 9 years (1) • Source of electric power??

  27. Nuclear energy consumption by region

  28. Top Ten Nuclear Countries • Net nuclear capacity (gw) • 2010 2020 Change % Change • United States 101.1 109.0 8 7.9 • France 63.3 66.4 5 3.2 • Japan 46.8 44.7 -5-2.1 • Russia 22.7 41.0 81 18.3 • Germany 20.5 9.0 -56 -11.5 • South Korea 18.7 28.1 50 9.4 • Ukraine 13.1 16.2 23 3.1 • Canada 12.6 15.0 19 2.4 • United Kingdom 11.0 12.7 16 1.7 • China 10.1 63.1 527 53.0 • Total 319.8 405.2 85 26.7

  29. ROLE OF NUCLEAR • Satisfy electricity demand • Reduce global warming • Few pollutants • Reduce reliance on fossil fuels- imports • ENOUGH???? • Many proposed • Guarantees • Simplified design • Governmental approval • SAFETY – MAJOR ISSUE

  30. BASICS OF NUCLEAR POWER • FUEL PROCESSING: mine, solvent used to remove uranium as uranium oxide “yellowcake” - 70% to 90% (U3O8) triuraniumoctoxide by weight. Other oxides such as (UO2) and (UO3) • Treat yellowcake converting it into uranium hexafluoride – consists of both U235 and U238 - Nuclear fuels • U235 is only 1% of the mix; ‘enrich’ the mix 3% to 5%; U235 is unstable and splits easily (fissions) • Convert into pellets • Fission in reactor - splitting of uranium’s protons and neutrons in the nucleus • Neutrons hit other uranium atoms – they split – release more neutrons + HEAT: fission continues to form a chain reaction – self-sustaining • Control rods are inserted into the bed of uranium pellets to control the reaction • The heat generated - creates steam - turns turbines - connect to generators - produce electricity

  31. Mine RODS UF6 U238 0.7% U235 U308 Steam Reactor Used Fuel Waste U Enrichment “Tailings”Depleated” U Reprocess Cooling water Waste Storage Disposal PU Pellets

  32. WHY/WHY NOT NUCLEAR POWER? • WHY? • Plentiful supply of uranium (regionally) – not oil dependent • No alternative uses • Green – no GHGs • Increasing costs of fossil fuel • Improved technology increases safety • Low transport cost – 10,000 times less than oil and 1 mil times less than coal • Controlled environment – no pipelines, oil and coal fields • Economic growth - globally • Environmental benefits – avoid runoff, oil spills, etc,. – avoid acid rain • Safety • WHY NOT? • High capital fixed costs? • Political and safety concerns • PAPERWORK, filings • Waste disposal • Dismantling

  33. CHINA ENERGY • China: consumes 3 bil. metric tons or coal • China 2 bil. KW of land wind power and 500+ mil. KW kilowatts offshore. • Solar power: 2011 capacity of 3 mil. KW (800,000 KW in 2010) • Hydro: 200 mil. KW end of 2010 • Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 Gwe (2)

  34. CHINA • “Nuclear power to become ‘foundation’ of country’s electrical system” China Daily 12/7/11 • Carbon goal 'impossible without nuclear energy‘ (2) • Today 40 mil. KW of nuclear (1.05 bil.KW total)(1) • Nuclear Goal: 26 mil. KW/year next 10-20 years(1)

  35. ELECTRICITY GENERATION • GLOBAL (2005): • Coal 39% • Gas 19% • Nuclear 17% • Hydro 16& • Oil 7% • Other 2% • CHINA (2009): • Coal 80% • Gas 1% • Nuclear 1% • Hydro 15% • Oil 2% • Other 1%

  36. CHINA NUCLEAR FACILTIES

  37. CHINA NUCLEAR • 77 reactors at various stages of construction, planning and discussion • Technology by state-run China National Nuclear Corp enables re-use irradiated nuclear fuel, • "China's proven uranium sources will last only 50 to 70 years, but this now changes to 3,000 years," • TARGET: 15% of its power from renewable sources by 2020. • China 70-80 GWby 2020, 5% of the country's total installed power capacity • Currently produces: ~750 tons of uranium/year but annual demand could rise to 20,000 tons a year by 2020

  38. CONCERNS • Safety and health • Waste storage • Age – up-rating, life extension • Transport • Site - NIMBY • Capital cost • Time span

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