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Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr from

Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr from SOFREAVIA Consulting and Support Studies. Civil air traffic in the ACAC area ASM & ATFM issues ACAC lines of action for the future. Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005.

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Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr from

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  1. Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr from SOFREAVIA Consulting and Support Studies

  2. Civil air traffic in the ACAC area ASM & ATFM issues ACAC lines of action for the future Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

  3. Acac Commercial Fleet Structure 2% 10% 17% LR Boeing 8% SMR Boeing LR Airbus 6% 13% SMR Airbus Old aircraft Cargo 16% Turboprops other 28% Source: Directory of Airlines Flight International (including firm orders for aircraft delivery up to 2008)

  4. Old aircraft LR Boeing Cargo SMR Boeing Turboprops LR Airbus other SMR Airbus Main ACAC area airlines (17 companies with at least 10 aircraft each, representing 80 % of the ACAC commercial fleet)

  5. > 180,000 mvts/year > 80,000 mvts/year > 30,000 mvts/year > 10,000 mvts/year Main airports in ACAC area

  6. 20,000 19,000 120,000 15,000 Main flows of charter traffic

  7. From/to Western Europe From/to Western Europe and Northern America From/to Southern Asia From/to Western Africa and Southern America From/to Central and Southern Africa From/to Eastern Africa and Southern Indian Ocean Main overflight flows

  8. Breakdown of AFI 2003 traffic into Domestic, International and Overflights

  9. Breakdown of MID 2003 traffic into Domestic, International and Overflights

  10. Air Route Network

  11. Main ACAC flows for 2003

  12. Main ACAC Flow for 2020

  13. Upper Airspace traffic density per FIR for 2003

  14. Traffic density per FIR for 2020

  15. Italy France Spain Portugal Greece Turkey Cyprus Malta Iran ? Canarias FIR Pakistan ? Senegal India Chad ? Ethiopia Applied separations along ATS routes :  4 min (30 nmi radar coordination) Kenya Uganda  10 min > 10 min ? Extrapolated Flight Transfer Separations across ACAC FIR boundaries

  16. Civil air traffic in the ACAC area ASM & ATFM issues ACAC lines of action for the future Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

  17. Crossing or merging points along main routes Close to a FIR boundary or a large TMA Capacity constrained by inter-ACC transfer rates ≥10 mn separations  ≤ 6 aircraft per hour 18,000 flights per year  6 aircraft at peak hour 20 nm separation ≤ 24 aircraft per hour Cost-ineffective alleviation is always possible (long detours, suboptimal flight levels etc.) Identification of potential bottlenecks in the Upper Airspace

  18. Main ACAC Flows for 2003 Potential bottlenecks

  19. Potential bottlenecks Main ACAC Flows for 2020

  20. ACAC homogeneous areas for the period 2005-2020

  21. The airspace is not globally optimised for en route capacity,and inter-ACC data sharing and coordinations could be improved almost everywhere (well, a bit like in Europe…) Some countries have significant non commercial GAT trafficconsisting of MIL and/or state Aircraft (Egypt, Saudi Arabia,Gulf States) and have also significant portions of airspacededicated to OAT with not much CDR-based flexibility Except in the MedRim area where there is a good deal ofATFM integration with the CFMU, ATFM measures existfor alleviating airport congestion but en route congestion isnot yet assessed, although it is considered by airspace usersas a growing problem in the MID area Identification of ASM & ATFM problems

  22. Civil air traffic in the ACAC area ASM & ATFM issues ACAC lines of action for the future Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

  23. Rationalise the strategic separation of UA and LA traffic: Create Upper Airspace sectors, especially in the MedRim and MID zones Develop SID-STAR and RNAV procedures for the main TMAs and optimise the connections from/to the Upper Airspace route network Monitor and manage potential bottlenecks: take locally any suitable alleviating measures (revision of routes, ACC and sector boundaries, modification of transfer points in Letters of Agreement) In areas with much MIL traffic, develop MIL-CIV ASM Cells: for implementing FUA (developing use of CDR and an integration of Pre-tactical arrangements for airspace utilisation at a trans-national level) Strengthen the link between the CFMU and the MedRim zone Create an ATFM entity in the MID area with 2 initial missions: 1°) monitoring airspace congestion on behalf of all participating ACC 2°) liaising with national authorities for harmonising ASM measures Identification of ASM & ATFM solutions

  24. In the ACAC area, the first step is to recognise the existenceof ASM & ATFM issues (look for a thermometer) The second step is to assess the emerging problem of airspacecongestion in the MID area (measure the intensity of fever) The third step is to develop a co-ordinated set of alleviating measures (chose the right drugs) The fourth step is to implement them (swallow the medicine) The fifth step is to continuously go back to step 2 (as traffic continues to grow, congestion is a recurring illness) Conclusion: a key role for ACAC

  25. Thank you for your attention

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