A relatively sluggish recovery expected in 2010
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A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010. Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist [email protected] Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization By Industry. Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010

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A relatively sluggish recovery expected in 2010

A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010

Presented by

Dan Meckstroth

Chief Economist

[email protected]


Widespread excess capacity in manufacturing

Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization By Industry

Source: Federal Reserve Board


Global exports bottoming out

Global Exports Bottoming Out

  • United States and World Exports of Goods, Inflation-Adjusted

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis


Nonfinancial corporations have surplus cash

Nonfinancial Corporations Have Surplus Cash

  • Nonfarm Nonfinancial Financing Gap*

Source: Federal Reserve Board

*Capital expenditures less the sum of US internal funds and inventory valuation adjustment


Diverging business investment patterns in 2010

Diverging Business Investment Patterns in 2010

  • Business Investment, Inflation-Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model

F=Forecast


Nonresidential construction continues to decline

Nonresidential Construction Continues To Decline

Nonresidential Construction

Construction By Type

Source: Left – U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Right – MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model


Most industries are in recession phase relative to one year ago

Most Industries Are In Recession Phase Relative To One Year Ago

Cyclical Position of Business Investment Industries in Third Quarter 2009

Source: MAPI


Capital equipment industries were pulled into recession

Capital Equipment Industries Were Pulled Into Recession

Investment-Related Manufacturing Production

Source: Federal Reserve Board, MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model


Forward looking manufacturing indicators improve

Forward-Looking Manufacturing Indicators Improve

Manufacturing Production and Purchasing Managers’ Production Indexes

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Institute for Supply Management


U s japanese and canadian manufacturing recovering from severe recession

U.S., Japanese, and Canadian Manufacturing Recovering From Severe Recession

Industrial Production By Country

Industrial Production By Country

Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


Asia outside japan leads manufacturing recovery

Asia Outside Japan Leads Manufacturing Recovery

Industrial Production By Region

Industrial Production By Region

Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


A severe global recession followed by strong initial recovery

A Severe Global Recession Followed By Strong Initial Recovery

World Industrial Production

World Industrial Production

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


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