A relatively sluggish recovery expected in 2010
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A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010. Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist dmeckstroth@mapi.net. Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization By Industry. Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010

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A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010

Presented by

Dan Meckstroth

Chief Economist

dmeckstroth@mapi.net


Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization By Industry

Source: Federal Reserve Board


Global Exports Bottoming Out

  • United States and World Exports of Goods, Inflation-Adjusted

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis


Nonfinancial Corporations Have Surplus Cash

  • Nonfarm Nonfinancial Financing Gap*

Source: Federal Reserve Board

*Capital expenditures less the sum of US internal funds and inventory valuation adjustment


Diverging Business Investment Patterns in 2010

  • Business Investment, Inflation-Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model

F=Forecast


Nonresidential Construction Continues To Decline

Nonresidential Construction

Construction By Type

Source: Left – U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Right – MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model


Most Industries Are In Recession Phase Relative To One Year Ago

Cyclical Position of Business Investment Industries in Third Quarter 2009

Source: MAPI


Capital Equipment Industries Were Pulled Into Recession

Investment-Related Manufacturing Production

Source: Federal Reserve Board, MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model


Forward-Looking Manufacturing Indicators Improve

Manufacturing Production and Purchasing Managers’ Production Indexes

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Institute for Supply Management


U.S., Japanese, and Canadian Manufacturing Recovering From Severe Recession

Industrial Production By Country

Industrial Production By Country

Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


Asia Outside Japan Leads Manufacturing Recovery

Industrial Production By Region

Industrial Production By Region

Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


A Severe Global Recession Followed By Strong Initial Recovery

World Industrial Production

World Industrial Production

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, MAPI


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